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Page added on March 19, 2017

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BP Exec to Give Global Energy Forecast

Consumption

The United States could become energy self-sufficient in as few as six years, predicts multinational oil and gas company BP.

Also by 2023, natural gas will replace oil as the most-used fuel in U.S. energy consumption. Global coal consumption will peak in the mid-2020s as China reins in its economic growth and uses cleaner, lower-carbon fuels.

Domestically, gas will overtake coal as the dominant fuel used in making electricity by 2020. By 2035, the United States will burn less fossil fuel and the amount of coal used will be nearly cut in half — from 17 percent in 2015 to 9 percent in 2035.

Those are just a few of the predictions in the 2017 edition of the BP Energy Outlook.

“Nobody has a crystal ball about the future, and we don’t pretend we do either,” said Mark Finley, general manager of global energy markets and U.S. economics with BP America Inc. “When we prepare the Outlook, it’s not to say, ‘Here, this is how the world’s going to be and we know better than you.’”

Finley will share the results of the 2017 edition of the BP Energy Outlook when he presents the company’s views on global energy markets at 1 p.m. March 27 at the Engineering Sciences Building on the Evansdale campus of West Virginia University in Morgantown. The talk is the annual Glen H. Hiner Distinguished Lecture.

But Finley also wants, he said, to find out how energy, coal and natural gas issues look from West Virginians’ perspectives.

“That highlights the main purpose of our energy outlook. It is a basis for conversation,” Finley said.

The Outlook is a 20-year analysis based on the Statistical Review of World Energy, which BP has published for 65 years. Finley leads the annual production of that market assessment.

“It is widely seen around the world as an objective resource for every major country of the whole world for all forms of energy,” Finley said.

The Statistical Review is the single-most downloaded document on BP’s website, he said.

The Outlook sets out some scenarios examining what may happen if certain situations occur. For example, what if the pace of development of electric vehicles is different from what forecasters assumed? What are other issues around shaping policy and technology that will impact competition between coal and natural gas in energy production?

Finley will emphasize that global markets are connected. “What happens in China matters to the people of West Virginia, as well as what happens in the Marcellus Shale natural gas fields and in policy decisions in Washington, D.C.,” he said.

“It’s really important to think about the global perspective,” Finley added. “All of these markets are connected. The U.S. trades oil, gas and coal internationally. I can’t hope to speak to local issues as well as the people who live there. I think, to me, part of the (Outlook’s) value is helping the people understand how things that happen abroad impact them in their everyday lives. It’s one of most rewarding parts to me.

“It isn’t just about energy. It’s about jobs, as people in West Virginia probably know better than most, but it is also about environmental issues and national security.”

The Glen H. Hiner Distinguished Lecture Series is named in honor of the alumnus and business leader who, in 2005, established an endowment to support the deanship of the Benjamin M. Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources at West Virginia University. A Morgantown native, Glen H. Hiner graduated from the Department of Electrical Engineering in 1957. He then embarked on a successful and innovative 35-year career with General Electric Co. In 1992, he became chief executive officer of Owens Corning, where he introduced new products, built new manufacturing facilities around the world and oversaw many major initiatives

The ET



22 Comments on "BP Exec to Give Global Energy Forecast"

  1. Lucifer on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 6:35 am 

    All these predictions and false prophets are full of shite, its all just pie in the sky stuff.

    Most people on here know the truth, except one or two, like Nony and Boat who need re-educating about whats coming down the pipeline in the near future.

    I would be happy to accommodate them in my class, but they would have to get used to the scorching heat.

  2. Midnight Oil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 7:27 am 

    BP forgot to add about the die off of humans due to non linear Global warming, which will cause an spike in temperatures. This will be during the crucial period of growth of our stable good crops and resulting in a biblical famine. Thus, the United States becomes self sufficient. The devil is in the details.
    Boy, do I have gas.

  3. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 7:35 am 

    BP forgot to add about the die off of humans due to non linear Global warming, which will cause an spike in temperatures.

    Global warming is non-linear alright, namely logarithmic, meaning that an increase of 1 degree Celsius requires a doubling of CO2. Which means that there is NOT going to be a temperature spike.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/matt-ridley-on-global-warming-vs-global-greening/

    biblical famine.

    Sigh. You read a lot of comic books in your youth, right?

  4. Midnight Oil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 7:59 am 

    Nope, just read the numbers of those starving to death in the world today, never mind those that go hungry. Boy, are YOU in for a big awakening of biblical proportions.

  5. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 8:17 am 

    Nope, just read the numbers of those starving to death in the world today, never mind those that go hungry. Boy, are YOU in for a big awakening of biblical proportions.

    Professional collapsnik, eh?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/17/africa-faces-up-to-obesity-epidemic

    Can’t wait to have 4 billion of those:

    http://www.thisissierraleone.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Obesity-in-Africa.jpg

    http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/29-most-obese-countries-in-the-world.html
    Most fatties: Anglosphere, Arabia

  6. Lucifer on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 9:00 am 

    Nice one Midnight Oil. I will give you a seat at my top table if you ever end up downstairs.

  7. shortonoil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 9:11 am 

    Global warming is non-linear alright, namely logarithmic, meaning that an increase of 1 degree Celsius requires a doubling of CO2.”

    Whose data are you plotting? If it’s IIPC’s it’s exponential; the form of the curve is y = ab^x. Logarithmic is y = a+b*lnx. If their data is correct 2+ °C is possible. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it would be for a whole lot of humans. But, don’t worry about it; the end of the oil age is not very far away. Producers can no longer replace the reverses that they are extracting, and the ongoing fall in refinery yields will soon make processing uneconomical. BP seems to have over looked those two little events? Price has declined by more than 50%, and is still going down. After the petroleum industry collapses, and the economy goes with it there won’t be much of a demand for oil anyway!

    Cheer up! Things are actually going to get a whole lot better; if you’re a tree!

  8. Northwest Resident on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 11:07 am 

    “Cheer up! Things are actually going to get a whole lot better; if you’re a tree!”

    Or if you happen to be a person that recognizes this modern day high tech period of human civilization as scourge to planet earth and to all living creatures including the human race itself. If you happen to be a person that recognizes that humanity is at its best in a close-knit tribal or small community setting, self-sufficient, respecting nature and living within one’s means — kind of like the American Indians before they were slaughtered — then returning to that eventual living arrangement doesn’t seem so threatening, in fact, it there is a certain allure to it. Getting there will be hell on earth, no doubt, but it leaves something to look forward to.

    My Filipina girlfriend often talks about her grandmother, who survived WWII by hiding in caves from the Japanese, then settling down in a small mountain village without electricity or plumbing, growing her own food, being “at one” with the natural environment and the other members of her small community. My girlfriend often talks about how HAPPY her grandmother was, how healthy and energetic, what a joy it was to visit her and stay for periods of time in that rustic but relaxed and purely human existence. Living in the post-age-of-oil era (the remainder of human life on planet earth) won’t be all bad, once the adjustment is made.

  9. coffeeguyzz on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 11:39 am 

    While I cannot speak for Nony, Boat, and other like-minded people, I would like to emphatically THANK the Collapsitarian crowd who frequently contributes comments to this site.
    For every one of you all, every one of ‘us’ kinda neutralizes the equation.

    However, with the increasing reliance on EEYEEYEYO, ‘thermodynamics’, ‘jes’ wait, itsa comin’ any day now’, and other deranged positions, the vast audience of interested observers have you folks – versus the above referenced, extensively researched and supported presentations – with which to make comparative decisions.

    Thank you.

    Similar to the human shit left behind to foul ‘sacred waters’ in North Dakota, the cyber shit spewn by regular contributors here is the most effective component in swaying the growing number of people who are glad to embrace the social, environmental, economic, and human benefits unleashed by this so-called Shale Revolution.

    Please, folks, carry on with the diatribes as ‘our side’ continues to benefit greatly.

  10. Midnight Oil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 11:39 am 

    Got one even better, Lucifer,..Cloggie, you wont find this in BPs annual report boasting about its Stock Dividends or its efforts still ongoing about Deepwater diaster or its long forgotten “Beyond Petroleum” feel good campaign.
    Guess you don’t have stock in Shell…BP pas better ….

    Shell Oil Company apparently cooled its passions about combating climate change.

    A resurfaced film released by the American oil titan more than 25 years ago shows the company warning about the disastrous risks of climate change — something it has done little in past quarter-century to stop.

    The 1991 video “Climate of Concern,” obtained by the Dutch crowdfunded news website The Correspondent, was made for public screenings in schools. It warned that the “broad consensus” of scientists showed that a continued reliance of fossil fuels would lead to global warming, weather fluctuations, flood and famines

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/shell-warned-climate-change-resurfaced-1991-video-article-1.2984373

    Yes Sir, those Oil Companies are alarmists..too bad you don’t listen to them, Cloggie…Ahole

  11. penury on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 11:43 am 

    NWR, having lived in a situation without the modern gadgets, and energy I can say it is not bad living there, however getting from here to there will be worse than hell for the majority of U.S. humans. The “adjustment” will take a few generations and much travail as people re-learn how to survive without “Facebook”.

  12. Midnight Oil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 11:56 am 

    Shortonoil, see you are an Oil addict and that juice clouds your reasoning….like it does with you modeling….just kidding….REALLY
    Like how these Denialists ALWAYS mention the IPCC when they want to confuse and twist to their point of view of so called “lukewarmism”. Maybe we should coin the phrase Etpism too. Just kidding…REALLY!
    Well, Shortonoil…you may know this about the IPCC…its not up to date research, it’s not at all objective because it’s based on consensus, which usually means the lowest common denominator acceptance (got to keep Exxon Mobile happy), and they put out projections and not predications.
    The sad thing 2 degrees is way too much…
    The reason…we are not just seeing. 2 degrees, but other kickins along with that trigger,The plus-two threshold matters because at that point the warming we have already caused will trigger natural feedbacks that we cannot control: the loss of the Arctic sea ice, the melting of the permafrost, and immense releases of carbon dioxide from the warming oceans. After plus-two, we will no longer be able to stop the warming by ending our own greenhouse gas emissions. Gwynne Dyer

    As Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research told The Guardian recently: “We are in a kind of climate emergency now

    PS Tell the corn crop it’s “only” 2 degrees and germinate

  13. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 12:01 pm 

    Guess you don’t have stock in Shell…BP pas better ….

    My modest pension plan is based on Shell.

    A resurfaced film released by the American oil titan more than 25 years ago shows the company warning about the disastrous risks of climate change — something it has done little in past quarter-century to stop.

    Which titan? Neither BP nor Shell are American.

    The 1991 video “Climate of Concern,” obtained by the Dutch crowdfunded news website The Correspondent, was made for public screenings in schools. It warned that the “broad consensus” of scientists showed that a continued reliance of fossil fuels would lead to global warming, weather fluctuations

    Nobody denies global (luke) warming. And it could well be that this is caused by fossil fuel burning.

    Not sure what point you are trying to make other than seizing the opportunity for name calling.

    You are a leftist, right?

  14. Midnight Oil on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 1:00 pm 

    Nobody denies it!? WTFck….where have YOU’VE been!? Am I a leftist? WTFck? Are you a retard? You sound like Chairman Mao asking about “rightist”. Too funny…
    No, no one denies it…is Cloggie serious or just plain dumb?
    Get me outta here..

  15. Northwest Resident on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 1:02 pm 

    penury — Excellent points. My sense of well-being and my hope for the future is based on the fact that I am individually pioneering food self-sustainability with my own mini-farm, and that I am and will be a “soldier” for positive change, doing my part to get us from here to there, through the hell that is surely to come, teaching and leading by example through that hell, and then passing the baton on to my son and his generation who will have to continue the adaptation on their own. To get my son and his generation to that future of self-sustainability and tribal/community living and coexisting with nature, I am willing to endure any hardship, fight any fight and make whatever sacrifices are needed. Along the way, I expect pain and misery to be constant companions, once this shit-show gets underway. But hanging tough for the benefit of future generations is what animates and inspires me. I hope there are more like me.

  16. Davy on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 1:04 pm 

    Sound wisdom NR!

  17. GregT on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 1:23 pm 

    “But hanging tough for the benefit of future generations is what animates and inspires me. I hope there are more like me.”

    Lots around these parts. A common topic of conversation. The unknown, of course, is the timeframe.

  18. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 1:57 pm 

    Off-topic: the best proof that Trump hates Merkel:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-7hU5uWGOE

    “At least we have something in common”

    Meaning on all the other topics they have different opinions.

    Wonder what they discussed behind closed doors.

  19. Keith McClary on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 5:15 pm 

    “By 2035, the United States will burn less fossil fuel and the amount of coal used will be nearly cut in half”
    Over Trump’s dead body.

  20. Cloggie on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 5:22 pm 

    By 2035 Trump will be 89. So you might have very well a point with that dead body.

  21. Boat on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 6:00 pm 

    Lucifer,

    Don’t be mixing any BP prediction with mine. The US would have to raise production 4-5 Mbpd to gain energy/oil independence.You should know the lowest cost producer wins long term market share and Russia/OPEC oil is still cheaper and have plenty of it.
    Hell these countries cut oil over 1 Mbpd because of a glut causing low prices. At $50 oil or lower a 4-5
    Mbpd gain in 6 years by US frackers seems crazy to me.

  22. GregT on Sun, 19th Mar 2017 7:23 pm 

    Boat,

    “Hell these countries cut oil over 1 Mbpd because of a glut causing low prices.”

    Are you brain dead?

    http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

    See those grey looking lines Kevin? When oil prices spiked above ~$30/bbl? Those are recessions.

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