Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on September 29, 2016

Bookmark and Share

Accelerationism… and Degrowth? The Left’s Strange Bedfellows

Accelerationism… and Degrowth? The Left’s Strange Bedfellows thumbnail

Over a year ago I lived in Barcelona, where I was lucky enough to witness a social movement—in large part fuelled by cooperatives, squats, and other autonomous spaces—win the mayoral elections. I had spent the year being involved with a group that studies and advocates ‘degrowth’—the idea that we must downscale production and consumption to have a more equitable society, and that we therefore must dismantle the ideology of ‘economic growth at all costs.’ As you can imagine, they spend much of their time trying to clear up misconceptions: “no, we’re not against trees growing. Yes, we also would like children to grow. Yes, we also like nice things like healthcare.”

But for the past year I’ve been living in London. There, activist ideology seemed to be permeated by the ‘accelerationists’—who argue that capitalism and its technologies should be pushed beyond their own limits, to create a new post-capitalist future.

Accelerationism is almost like, having tried hard to evade a black hole, a ship’s crew decide that the best course of action would be to turn around and let themselves be sucked in—“hey, there could be something cool on the other side!” After a year’s experiences in some of London’s activist circles, I now understand better where this is coming from: decades of government cutbacks, squashing of unions, total financialization of the city, and lack of access to resources for community organizing has meant that London activists are systematically in crisis mode—exhausted, isolated, and always on the defensive.

These two worlds met on a dreary Saturday afternoon last winter at an event called “Future Society Forum.” After a short introduction by Nick Snricek—a prominent accelerationist—activists from around London were invited to brainstorm what a leftist utopia could look like.

The room was divided into different ‘themes’: work, health, environment and resources, education, etc. We were first asked to place post-its with ideas for “futures” particular to each theme. (Comically, someone had put ‘basic income’ on every single theme before the event had even started—an attempt at subliminal messaging?) Then, we were asked to split into groups to discuss each theme.

Given my background, I decided I could contribute most to the ‘environment’ theme—though I was certainly interested in joining the others. After a 15-minute discussion, the time came for each group to feed back to the larger collective.

Unsurprisingly, the environment group envisioned a decentralized society where resources were managed by bio-region—a participatory, low-tech, low-consumption economy, where everyone has to do some farming and some cleaning up, and where the city is perfectly integrated with the country. I’m pretty sure I heard sniggers as our utopia was read out loud.

The ‘work’ group, on the other hand, envisioned a future with machines that would do everything for us—requiring big factories, where all labor (if there was any) was rewarded equally, where no one had to do anything they didn’t like, in which high-tech computer systems controlled the economy. In other words, ‘fully-automated luxury communism.’

Talk about selection bias.

Part of me had expected more than a snigger, though. But the direct challenge never came. The accelerationists begrudged the enviros their grub-eating utopia while they ruminated on their own techno-fetishes. Was it just an armistice to prepare for a bigger battle down the road, or was there really less animosity than I imagined?

To better understand where they were coming from, I decided to check out what these accelerationists were on about. I picked up an e-copy of Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work, and read the #Accelerate Manifesto—both written by Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek.

When I was done reading the works of the foremost accelerationists (I’ve since learned that Williams and Srnicek now distance themselves from the term, so as not to be confused with more right-wing strains of the movement), I realized that degrowth and their brand of accelerationism actually have more in common than I initially thought—both in practical terms (policies and strategy), and in their general ideological positions. And they have a lot to learn from each other.

What follows is a bit of a report: a conversation between the two. There will be some critique, but also some cross-pollination. My discussion revolves around a couple of themes: the importance of utopian thinking, technology, economy, and political strategy.

If there is commonality there is also difference. How is it possible that, considering so many agreements, they have such an oppositional framing of the problem at hand? By way of a conclusion, I suggest that the notion of ‘speed’—and their divergent views of it—is fundamental to each position.

Utopian Thinking

As David Graeber put it in yet another tasty essay, social movements today are experiencing a kind of “despair fatigue”: no longer content with merely commiserating about cuts to social services, there has been a rebirth in futuristic, positive thinking.

Indeed, it seems that a key uniting principle between accelerationism and degrowth is their promotion of utopian ideas. This might come as a surprise with those unfamiliar with the degrowth literature—recently, a whole book was dedicated to attacking the degrowth hypothesis as anti-modern and a form of “austerity ecology”. However, the fact is that degrowth thinkers have put a lot of thought into how to go beyond primitivist flight from the modern and envision a future that is low-carbon, democratic, and just. Despite the negative connotations that may come with a word like ‘degrowth’, there have been many positive, forward-looking proposals within the movement. Key concepts here include “desire”—that is, the emphasis that a just transition should not be forced but should come from people’s own political will; “commoning”—in which wealth is managed collectively rather than privatized; the support of innovative policies such as basic and maximum income as well as ecological tax reform; the resuscitation of Paul Lafargue’s demand for ‘the right to be lazy’; the embracement of ’imaginaries’ inspired by ‘nowtopias’—actually existing livelihood experiments that point to different possible futures.

The same is true for the accelerationists. Indeed, the launching point of Snricek and Williams’ book is that much of leftist activism in the past decades has forsaken the imaginative, creative utopias which characterized left struggles of the past. Indeed, progressive activism, to them, has largely been limited to what they call “folk politics”—an activist ideology that is small in its ambit, focuses on immediate, temporary actions rather than long-term organizing, focuses on trying to create prefigurative perfect ‘micro-worlds’ rather than achieving wide-ranging system change. This, they argue, is symptomatic of the wider political moment, in which a neoliberal consensus has foreclosed any ability to think up alternative policies and worlds. And so they propose a vision of the future that is both modern and conscious of current economic trends. Like the degrowth movement, they propose that the dominant pro-work ideology must be dismantled, but unlike degrowth, they take this in another direction: proposing a world where people don’t have to submit to drudgery but can instead pursue their own interests by letting machines do all the work —in other words “fully automated luxury communism.”

What unites the two is a counter-hegemonic strategy that sets up alternative imaginaries and ethics, that challenges the neoliberal moment by insisting that other worlds are possible and, indeed, desirable. For degrowth scholars like Demaria et al., degrowth is not a stand-alone concept but an interpretive “frame” which brings together a constellation of terms and movements. For accelerationists, part of the strategy is to promote a new set of “universal” demands that allow new political challenges to take place. In addition, they call for an “ecology of organizations”—think tanks, NGOs, collectives, lobby groups, unions, that can weave together a new hegemony. For both, there is a need to undermine existing ideologies by, on the one hand, providing strong refutations to them, and, on the other, through setting up new ones (e.g. post-work, conviviality). The result is two strong proposals for alternative futures that are not afraid of dreaming big.

Economic Pluralism, Political Monism?

Forty years after neo-conservative godfather Irving Kristol indicted the New Left for “refusing to think economically” in his well-known speech at the Mont Pelerin Society, it is interesting that these two emerging frameworks are once again centering economics in their analysis. Indeed, both frameworks propose startlingly similar economic policies. They share demands such as universal basic income, reduction in work hours, and the democratization of technology. However, they differ in other demands: Williams and Snricek stress the potential of automation to address inequality and focus on the role of technological advances in either further driving precarity or liberating society. As part of this, they talk at length about the importance of state-led innovation and subsidies for research and development, and how this needs to be reclaimed by the left. In contrast, Degrowth scholars such as Giorgos Kallis and Samuel Alexander have proposed a more diverse platform of policies, ranging from minimum and maximum income, working hour reduction and time-sharing, banking and finance reform, participatory planning and budgeting, ecological tax reform, financial and legal support for the solidarity economy, reducing advertising, and abolishing the use of GDP as an indicator of progress. These are only a few of the many policies proposed by Degrowth advocates—the point is, however, that Degrowthers tend to support a broad policy platform rather than a set of strategic, system-changing “easy wins”.

At multiple points in their book, Snricek and Williams urge the left to engage with economic theory once again. They argue that, while mainstream economics does need to be challenged, tools such as modeling, econometrics, and statistics will be crucial in developing a revived, positive vision of the future.

Indeed, near the end of the book, they make a bid for “pluralist” economics. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the left responded with a “makeshift Keynesianism”—because the focus had largely been on a critique of capitalism there was a severe lack of alternative economic theories available to draw from. They urge thinking through contemporary issues that are not easily addressed by Keynesian or Marxist economic theory: secular stagnation, “the shift to an informational, post-scarcity economy”, alternative approaches to quantitative easing, and the possibilities of full automation and a universal basic income, amongst others. They argue that there is a need for the left to “think through an alternative economic system”which draws from innovative trends spanning“modern monetary theory to complexity economics, from ecological to participatory economics.”,

However, I was a disappointed by what they considered “plural” forms of economics. There was little mention of the wide array of heterodox fields such as institutional economics, post-Keynesian economics, commons theory, environmental economics, ecological economics, and post-development theory. It is these fields that have offered some of the strongest challenges to neoclassical economics and they would do well to engage with them.

This gap is not minor. Rather, it reflects deeper issues within the whole accelerationist framework. For a book that mentions climate change as one of the foremost problems we face—also mentioned in the first sentence of their #Accelerate Manifesto—there is surprisingly little engagement with environmental issues. And yet it is these unmentioned heterodox economic fields that have provided some of the most useful responses to the current environmental crisis—even going so far as providing robust models and econometric analyses to test their own claims.

The same gap is not found in the Degrowth literature. Indeed, the movement has been inspired to a great extent by rebel economists such as Nicholas Georgescu-Røegen, Cornelius Castoriadis, Herman Daly, Eleanor Ostrom, and J.K. Gibson-Graham. Degrowth sessions are now the norm at many heterodox economics conferences—just as degrowth conferences are largely dominated by discussions of the economy.

Taking the lessons from institutional economics in stride, degrowth thinkers have stressed that there are no panaceas: no single policy will do the trick, a diverse and complimentary policy platform is necessary to offset feedback loops that may arise from the interplay between several policies.

From this perspective, the strategic policies proposed by accelerationists—basic income, automation, reduction in working hours—start to look rather simplistic. Focusing on three core policies makes for elegant reading and simple placards, but also comes at a price: when these policies are implemented and result in unforeseen negative effects, there will be little political will to keep experimenting with them. I would rather place my bets on a solid, multi-policy platform, resilient enough to deal with negative feedback loops and not too dogmatic about which one should be implemented first.

A strong point of the accelerationists is their emphasis that economic policies are political—and thus must be won through political organizing. In doing so, they make the crucial step beyond economism—the term Antonio Gramsci used to refer to leftists who put counter-hegemonic activism on hold until “economic conditions” favor it. The same cannot always be said of the environmentalist left: scarcity, environmental limits—these are often imposed as apolitical spectres that override all other concerns.

And yet, for all their calls for a united, utopian vision, I remain apprehensive about the kind of utopia they proposed—and therefore the kind of politics they see as necessary. While ‘folk politics’ is in part is a promising definition of activism that fails to scale up, it also easily becomes a way to dismiss anything that doesn’t fit their idea of what politicsreally is.

Take, for example, their take-down of the Argentinean popular response to the financial crisis. Under their gaze, the “large-scale national turn towards horizontalism” involving neighborhood assemblies after the 1998 recession  “remained a localized response to the crisis” and “never approached the point of replacing the state”. Worker-run factories failed to scale up and “remained necessarily embedded within capitalist social relations”. In conclusion, they claim that Argentina’s ‘moment’ was “simply a salve for the problems of capitalism, not an alternative to it.” They maintain that it was simply an emergency response, not a competitor.

But this is a very problematic view of what constitutes ‘the political.’ Drawing on decades of reporting on Latin America’s popular struggles and involvement in them, Raùl Zibechi argues that, following neoliberal abandonment by the state, peasants, Indigenous peoples, and slum-dwellers are creating new worlds and resources that operate differently from the logic of the state and capital. These new societies make no demands from political parties and they do not develop agendas for electoral reform. Instead, they organize “con/contra” (with/against) existing institutions by ‘reterritorializing’ their livelihoods, building diverse and horizontal economies, and rising up in revolt at critical junctures.

Under Zibechi’s gaze, the very same Argentinean popular reaction is described as a moment when “the unfeasible becomes visible”. What was simmering under the surface is revealed “like lightning illuminating the night the sky”.  Rather than being “emergency responses”, the Argentinean response was practiced and strategic— not quite as spontaneous and disorganized as Snricek and Williams depict.

Likewise with gender politics; even as Williams and Srnicek acknowledge feminist economic theories around care and reproductive labor, what qualifies as ‘real’ politics falls into very hegemonic realms: lobbying, the formation of think-tanks, policy platforms, unions, and economic modeling. But what about other types of resistance, such as the ones Zibechi highlights: childcare collectives, squatted and autonomously organized settlements, community-organized schools and clinics, collective kitchens, and street blockades? How do such practices, now being referred to as ‘commoning,’ fit in their ‘ecology of organizations?’

I worry that accelerationists, like Friedrich Engels’ dismissal of peasants as revolutionary agents, implicitly reject the possibility that Indigenous and anti-extractivist struggles are important potential allies. If political success is measured solely by statist goals, then non-statist victories will remain invisible.

In contrast, degrowth thinkers have collaborated with post-development scholars like Ashish Kothari and Alberto Acosta, and have helped to create a worldwide environmental justice network—forming alliances with the very groups that would be the most affected by an increase in automation and the least likely to benefit from accelerationist policies like basic income.

Unfortunately, what Snricek and Williams call ‘folk politics’ ends up justifying their specific vision of the political—one that is quite strikingly a vision from the North, unable to break away from hegemonic ideas of the ‘right’ political actors. By this logic, the Argentinean movement ‘failed’ because it could not replicate or replace the state. To this end, they might find it useful to engage with subaltern theorists, decolonialization studies, post-development scholars—all of whom have in different ways challenged Western conceptions of what resistance, alternatives, and progress looks like. Further, they might engage with commons theorists who demonstrate how commoning practices open up very real alternatives to neoliberalism. Beyond theoretical alliances, this might help them not to dismiss “failed” movements simply because they do not seek to copy the state.

Technology, Efficiency, and Metabolism

For many on the left, technology is secondary to redistributive policies (welfare, health care, employment equity) and innovation is the realm of private companies, not the government.

In contrast, accelerationists recognize that technology is a key driver of social and economic change. For Snricek and Williams, an important strategic goal within the left would be to politicize technology, to transform capitalist machines for socialist goals. We must take the reigns of technology, democratize it, if we are to deal with the multiple issues facing humanity today. This ‘modern’ gesture, which avoids primitivism and the wish to return to a ‘simpler’ past, is certainly appreciated.

Snricek and Williams spend much of the book discussing how automation is transforming social and economic relations worldwide. Not only is the roboticization of the workplace rendering so many workers in the Global North useless, automation is starting to have its effects in rapidly developing countries like China. They go so far as to link the informalization of huge swathes of humanity—slum-dwellers, rural-urban migrants—as an indication that capitalism no longer even needs its “reserve army of labor”. The onset of automation means that we may once again enter a world of mass unemployment, where labor becomes cheap and all the power will be in the hands of the employer.

Their response to this is quite brave: rather than fleeing this modern ‘reality’, they suggest pushing for ever more automation—eventually ending the need for rote labor and bringing about “fully automated luxury communism”—their vision of a desirable future. As part of this, they argue that public investment in innovation will be key in achieving this goal.

But even if automation were on the rise, I’m skeptical as to how it could limit capitalism’s outward expansion. As Peter Linebaugh has argued, the Luddites opposed automation not just because it was costing them their jobs, but because they knew the automation of textile manufacturing meant the enslavement, and drawing in to the capitalist system, of millions of slaves and indigenous people in the colonies. Automation, from this viewpoint, is a local problem borne from a myopically Northern perspective: it will not do away with ever-expanding forest-clearing, enclosures, destruction of subsistence livelihoods, and the creation of itinerant classes forced into the extractivist economy. Regardless of whether automation is capitalist or communist, without being regulated, it stands to increase environmental conflicts globally. But rising rates of resource extraction are not mentioned as a problem in the book, nor do they propose a strategic alliance with those affected by the extractive industry.

This leads to what is perhaps the most frustrating gap in the whole book: their very weak environmental proposals. Even though the current environmental crisis is distinctly mentioned early in the book as one of humanity’s most pressing problems, they don’t provide any clear policy proposals to it. There are two exceptions; when discussing why automation could actually be a good thing, they also mention that greater efficiency would decrease energy use. Elsewhere, they suggest that shifting to a four-day workweek would also limit energy use from commuting.

But efficiency doesn’t work that way. In any political regime where there are insufficient limits or regulations on total energy and material use in society (capitalist or communist), and the profits of investment are invested in more production, advances in efficiency will cause energy and material throughput to increase exponentially. This is called the rebound effect, or Jevons’ Paradox. So, without limiting in some way the use of resources and energy (e.g. by taxing it), any advance in efficiency will likely lead to progressively more resource use, not less. Similarly, there is no guarantee that truncating the workweek will be more environmentally friendly. Efficiency and more free time can just as easily lead to more ecological damage, not less.

This is where accelerationist and degrowth analyses differ the most. Degrowth takes as a key question the ‘metabolism’ of the economy—that is, how much energy and material it uses. As innovation enables the speeding up of this metabolism, and because an increase in metabolism has disastrous social and ecological impacts—too often offloaded on people who do not benefit from the technology—there needs to be collective decision-making on technology’s limits.

In this way, simply reappropriating technology, or making it more efficient, is not enough. In fact, without totally transforming how capitalism reinvests its surplus—requiring a fundamental transformation of financial systems—automation will unfortunately help expand capitalism, rather than allow us to overcome it.

If capitalism always seeks to collectivize impacts and privatize profits, then communism should not be about collectivizing profits and externalizing impacts to people far away or future generations. This is the danger of ‘fully automated luxury communism’. These dangers are not discussed by accelerationist texts—but they should be.

Perhaps this is the key ideological difference: accelerationists make such an extreme modernist gesture that they refuse the need to limit their utopia—there are only possibilities. In contrast, degrowth is predicated on politicizing limits that, until now, have been left to the private sphere. This might involve saying, in the words of one Wall Street employee, “I would prefer not to” to some technologies.

What is Speed?

It says something about the times when two important segments of the radical left have gravitated to the terms ‘degrowth’ and ‘accelerationism’—about as opposite as it could get. Of course this is not new—similar opposing strands played their part in social movements of the past: should we smash the machines or take them into our own hands? Should we grab the reigns of the state or disown it outright?

And yet there is something rather new here as well: the introduction of the question ofspeed into leftist thought. They do so in very different ways.  For degrowth, ‘growth’ is the acceleration of the energetic and material flows of the economic system at exponential rates, as well as the ideology that justifies it. Let’s call this socio-metabolic speed. Their political project then comes down to challenging that ideology head-on, as well as re-thinking economic theory to allow societies to ensure well-being but also transform how energy and material is used—necessary for a more just economic system.

Accelerationists, on the other hand, think of speed much more figuratively: they are referring to the Marxist concept of the material conditions of human relations—for them, acceleration means moving beyond the limits of capitalism, which requires a totally modern stance. This is socio-political speed: the shifting gears of social relations, as a result of changing technological systems.

Both, I think, have put their finger on a crucial question of our times, but from slightly different directions: can what gives us modernity—a colossal global infrastructural web of extraction, transportation, and fabrication—be democratized? For accelerationists, this would require making that web more efficient and modifying political systems to make it easier to live with—shifting the gears of social relations beyond capitalism. For degrowthers, it would require slowing that system down and developing alternative systems outside of it. I don’t think these two aims are mutually exclusive. But it would require going beyond simplistic formulas for system change on one side, and anti-modern stances on the other.

But it’s also worth going one step further and asking whether that infrastructural system would really take kindly to these shifts in gears, or if it will it simply buck the passenger.

To navigate this question, it’s useful to briefly turn to the foremost “philosopher of speed”: Paul Virilio. In Speed and Politics, Virilio traces how changes in social relations were brought about through the increased velocity of people, machines, and weapons. Through Virilio’s eyes, the history of Europe’s long emergence out of feudalism into 20th century modernity was one of increasing metabolism of bodies and technologies. Each successive regime meant a recalibration of this speed, accelerating it, managing it. For Virilio, political systems—be they totalitarian, communist, capitalist, or republican—emerged both as a response to changes to this shift in speed and as a way to manage human-technologic co-existence.

What’s important for this discussion is that Virilio does not separate the two types of speed: changing social relations also meant changing metabolic rates—they are the same, and must be theorized simultaneously.

Doing so could be useful for both degrowth and accelerationism. While degrowth does not have a succinct analysis of how to respond to today’s shifting socio-technical regimes—accelerationism’s strong point – at the same time accelerationism under-theorizes the increased material and energetic flows resulting from this shifting of gears. Put another way, efficiency alone can limit its disastrous effects. As degrowth theorists have underlined, environmental limits must be politicized; control over technology must therefore be democratized; metabolic rates must be decelerated if Earth is to remain livable.

To conclude, accelerationism comes across as a metaphor stretched far too thin. A napkin sketch after an exciting dinner-party, the finer details colored in years afterwards—but the napkin feels a bit worn out. Big questions need to be asked, questions unanswered by the simplistic exhortation to “shift the gears of capitalism.” When the gears are shifted, the problem of metabolic limits won’t be solved simply through “efficiency”—it must acknowledge that increased efficiency and automation has, and likely would still, lead to increased extractivism and the ramping up of environmental injustices globally. Or another: what does accelerationism mean in the context of a war machine that has historically thrived on speed, logistics, and the conquest of distance? Is non-violent acceleration possible, and what would class struggle look like in that scenario?

To be fair, the word “degrowth” also fails to answer many big questions. There has been little discussion on whether mass deceleration is possible when, as Virilio shows, all mass changes in social relations have historically occurred through acceleration. Can hegemony decelerate? If degrowth lacks a robust theory of how to bring about regime shift, then Williams and Snricek’s brand of accelerationism doesn’t allow for a pluralist vocabulary that looks beyond its narrow idea of what constitutes system change. And yet, the proponents of each ideology will likely be found in the same room in the decades to come. Despite their opposite ‘branding’, they should probably talk. They have a lot to learn from each other.

Institute for Social Ecology



20 Comments on "Accelerationism… and Degrowth? The Left’s Strange Bedfellows"

  1. makati1 on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 7:36 am 

    Maybe this author was paid by the word?

    A lot of verbiage saying nothing.

  2. forbin on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 8:19 am 

    ideologists all sitting in a room talking , doing nothing .

    LTG is gonna be a big “surprise” moment to them …….

    degrowth = death

    acceleration = speed

    “speed death ”

    Forbin

  3. ghung on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 9:19 am 

    The delusion of control…..

  4. Armando Gascón Lozano on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 9:53 am 

    Just in case you forgot, Colau and her people were elected in Barcelona, voted in, and the Judge Carmena in Madrid too. What chance for a coalition of the Left and Greens -to simplify matters- in London? None at all.

    The English accelerationists and de-growths are just another version of Boris Johnson, people fit for a country of rich lazy charlatans, the chattering classes.

  5. Cloggie on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 10:13 am 

    For my own understanding…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism

    In political and social theory, accelerationism is the idea that either the prevailing system of capitalism, or certain technosocial processes that have historically characterised it, should be expanded, repurposed, or accelerated in order to generate radical social change. Some contemporary accelerationist philosophy takes as its starting point the Deleuzo-Guattarian theory of deterritorialisation, aiming to identify, deepen, and radicalise the forces of deterritorialisation with a view to overcoming the countervailing tendencies that suppress the possibility of far-reaching social transformation. Accelerationism may also refer more broadly, and usually pejoratively, to support for the deepening of capitalism in the belief that this will hasten its self-destructive tendencies and ultimately eventuate its collapse.

    Professedly accelerationist theory has been divided into mutually contradictory left-wing and right-wing variants, with “left-accelerationism” attempting to press “the process of technological evolution” beyond the constrictive horizon of capitalism, for example by repurposing modern technology to socially beneficial and emancipatory ends; and “right-accelerationism” supporting the indefinite intensification of capitalism itself, possibly in order to bring about a technological singularity.

    On second thoughts, I think I am going to skip this article.

  6. Davy on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 11:38 am 

    “Major Dollar Shortage Exposed In Europe As Deutsche Bank Contagion Spreads”
    http://tinyurl.com/hxweslb

    “While global markets remain calm(ish), distracted by OPEC headlines, US election ‘entertainment’, and Middle East proxy wars, the reality is, something very ugly is accelerating in Europe. With the collapse of the “most systemically dangerous bank in the world” we should hardly be surprised, but Deutsche Bank’s crash is being shrugged off by average joes on mainstream media… and besides, the central banks will save us, right? Well, Deutsche contagion is spreading… rapidly.”

    “Deutsche – and the others – are anything but healthy. The need to reinvent. The news flow yesterday was positive-ish. Rumours of a SWF capital injection, rumours of a domestic rescue plan, but the reality is more likely to be further deterioration. If that develops into a full crisis any rescue will come at the cost of contingent capital deals being triggered (which will send shock-waves around banking confidence) and the strong/inevitable bail-in of senior debt holders. Others say the senior debt is safe. Delighted they think so. Call me and tell me how much you want to buy?”

  7. penury on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 1:08 pm 

    EU banks in general are bankrupt. Deutsche alone has derivitives in excess of 48 trillion euros which is greater than the GDP of the EU.Someone is going to notice a loss of money. And yes the U.S. is involved so banks in the U.S are as exposed as EU banks. October should be an interesting time. As in the old chinese proverb way.

  8. Anonymous on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 6:01 pm 

    penury, all the ‘money’, CDO’s wtf-evers, are not real money. The are figures in a computer, or in a ledger. They represent nothing in the real world except broken promises and fraud. You could wipe all those phoney ‘derivatives’ off the books this afternoon and what would change?

    A lot less than people have been led to believe. Long past time to declare all ‘CDO’-like instruments null and void, publicly execute all the senior amerikan and israeli bankster class, ECB puppets (and their enablers), and be done with.

    That would wipe out 100s of trillions of phony ‘debt’ IOU’s whatever you want to call them, in a heartbeat.

  9. penury on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 6:30 pm 

    Anon, you wish. It is true that the instruments you name are digital not real. However, there are a group of tas payers some where who will have to supply the real currency to bail out the bond holders of these institutions. Remember 08 and 09. Phony debt IOU’s which are held by the l per cent will be declared TBTF and rapidly monetized by the cBs. If you followed the reports today a lot of the problems are a shortage of U,S. dollars. Guess who will provide these.

  10. Sissyfuss on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 7:08 pm 

    Deutsche Bank, Madoff on steroids.
    This time feel a different Been.

  11. Sissyfuss on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 7:09 pm 

    A different Bern. Dumbass computer!

  12. makati1 on Thu, 29th Sep 2016 7:28 pm 

    penury, no they wouldn’t. The banks would just fail like they should have done in 2008. No bail-out or bail-in needed. Just pure, unadulterated Capitalism like is is supposed to work with risk takers losing when they make a bad bet. The same for the “Reserve” banks. All of the REAL wealth would still exist. The factories, mines, homes, farms, etc. Just the paper debt would vanish.

    Yes, the reset would level the playing field and the 1st world would lose all of their paper wealth and the ability to control the rest of the world, but that would be a good thing. Much better than nukes flying, and THAT is the option today. The sooner it all fails, the better. The financial bubble has reached Zeppelin size and needs that pin desperatly.

  13. makati1 on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 1:15 am 

    “Climate Change: Earth’s Atmospheric CO2 Levels Have Permanently Crossed The 400 PPM Red Line”

    “Earth ‘Locked Into’ Hitting Temperatures Not Seen in 2 Million Years: Study”

    “Climate Change Will Cripple Coastal Septic Systems”

    “Miami’s Zika Search Turns Up Another Virus: Dengue”

    http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/

    On that last one, welcome to the 3rd world, Miami.

  14. brough on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 7:10 am 

    What a load elitest, pretentious BS.

    Who are the Institute of Social Ecology, because I’ve lived in the UK all my life and never heard of them.

    Just a group of well-healed, middle-class intellectuals trying to work out where all their government funding has gone. Well look out, a whole shed-load of crap coming your way and no amount of words is going to stop it.
    Sorry lost my temper, but a lot of similar stuff is coming out of UK today. Not one of our proudest days.

    Davy

    I don’t think we’re in for another banking crisis just yet, still a bit of gas left in the central bank’s tank. But its running out fast. But I agree there is something ugly brewing in Europe and also in the UK. I can’t put my finger on it, but there is an ever increasing dislocation between the political elite and the general population.

  15. Davy on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 7:51 am 

    Yea, brough, I think you are right. This will be a process not an event. It is still a crisis just a slow motion one. The actions taken in the last crisis ensured panic can be contained but overall confidence is not something that can be controlled. These events spread anxiety and the cumulative building of this anxiety (risk) deflates the economy. A deflated economy is a dying economy. At some point a growth based economy gives up its last breath. I am not sure where that is but I do believe optimism out there concerning technology and energy is misplaced considering they require a healthy economy. This is not a healthy economy if it is moving in a negative macro trend no matter how shallow and slight that is. There are demons behind that door and we going to have to open it someday.

  16. Davy on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 9:15 am 

    “As Europe’s Dollar Shortage Intensifies, Funding Pressure Surges Most In 4 Years”
    http://tinyurl.com/jb8auqj

    “As the world wakes up to the fact that Deutsche Bank is not Lehman – it’s massively bigger, and massively more systemic, oh and it has depositors – contagion is spreading through global funding and asset markets.”

    “For now the world remains mired in the first of Kubler-Ross five stages of grief – denial! Expectations of a state bailout remain far too high given the massive political problem that would ensue – read, European mutiny – should Germany bailout its banking system while Cypriot, Greek, and Italian banks have been forced to fend for themselves, confirming the widely held impressin that Europe is being run by and for Germany.”

  17. Cloggie on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 9:27 am 

    I can’t put my finger on it, but there is an ever increasing dislocation between the political elite and the general population.

    Let me help you to put your finger on it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=382njADcWvE

    The Hungarian “deplorable” truck driver says in undiplomatic language what the issue is.

    I love Eastern Europeans, who are not spoiled by US imperial multicult brain-washing.

    Orban for EU-president!

    http://hungarytoday.hu/news/pm-orban-accuses-george-soros-masterminding-american-lefts-pro-migration-stance-88835

  18. Apneaman on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 9:34 pm 

    Global Cooling Threatens Life on Earth

    “While the planet’s air, water and land are heating to dangerous levels because of human pollution, the world’s trade is cooling off, slowing down and coagulating in the deepening chill, threatening the well-being of every country and virtually every person.”

    “The world of trade and finance is confronting such a moment now, and is every bit as much in denial as it was in 2008. This time it’s not America’s Lehman Brothers tottering into an early grave and pulling half the world in with it; it’s Deutsche Bank.

    Germany’s largest bank is not doing well. Its operating loss last year was almost seven billion Euros; its share price has fallen almost 70% since April of 2015, and dropped over seven per cent in a single day this week, to just over 10 Euros. Go back to September of 2008 and read the news reports about Lehman, and feel the burn.”

    “Masters of the Universe are talking openly about — and betting massively on — a Deutsche Bank failure (yes, it’s another Big Short). The German government has vowed not to bail it out, but the bank’s assets, ravaged though they may be, represent nearly 60% of Germany’s gross domestic product. This is the very definition of too big to fail.”

    http://www.dailyimpact.net/2016/09/29/global-cooling-threatens-life-on-earth/

  19. JuanP on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 10:12 pm 

    How can someone write so much and say so little? I stopped reading this pretentious trash after a few paragraphs. I think I am going to systematically avoid reading articles that contain the words degrowth and accelerationism from now on. I can’t understand people who waste there time writing crap like this. Life is too short to waste time like that! Go fishing or hiking, grow some food, play some music, read a good book, get high, help someone in need. This shit is a complete waste of time! I hate these fake intellectuals!

  20. makati1 on Fri, 30th Sep 2016 10:50 pm 

    JuanP, they do it for money. If you have no real skills to sell, you sell bullshit in large, paid-per-word, verbiage. If I see a long article, I jump to the last paragraph which is supposed to sum up the article. If it says something reasonable or interesting, THEN I may take my valuable time to read it. Otherwise…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *