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A Global Perspective On The Outlook For Oil Prices

Consumption

Summary

IEA, EIA projections point to significant supply growth in 2018.

However, global upstream investment remains depressed as the market relies almost exclusively on anticipated growth in US output to meet growing global demand.

Offshore oil production accounts for 30% of total global oil production and as such remains a key component of the global oil market.

Investment spending in the offshore sector remains well below prior peak levels from 2013/14.

If US production growth slows or tops out (a possible scenario by 2020), a severe global supply deficit in the oil market may develop from 2020 onwards.

In this article we will take a closer look at the latest data and forecasts published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEA data will give us a clearer picture of the current state of the global oil industry and more specifically, the outlook for the next two years. The AEO publication will offer us a longer-term perspective and perhaps notably, as we will discuss later in this article, lead us to the conclusion that a significant disconnect exists between valuations in the U.S. onshore Exploration and Production (E&P) sector (NYSEARCA:XOP) and the forecasts that underpin the AEO’ s long-term reference case.

In the IEA’s monthly publication, the Oil Market Report (OMR) has taken an optimistic view with regard to growing oil output in the U.S, while also forecasting a modest reduction in global demand growth in 2018. In its most recent OMR publication (February 2018), the IEA said that it expects global demand to grow by just 1.4mn bpd in 2018, a modest decline from the 1.6mn bpd growth reported in 2017. On the supply-side, the IEA expects total global oil output to grow by 1.7mn bpd, with 1.35mn bpd of incremental output coming from the United States.

The IEA’s assumptions are quite aggressive and would point to a market that will remain prone to excess supply or output growth. Notably, the IEA’s assumption regarding U.S. production growth is even higher than the EIA’s projection, which is forecasting growth of around 1.2mn bpd in 2018. We would probably defer to the EIA in terms of accuracy in forecasting U.S. production and as such, would suggest that the lower figure is a more reliable forecast for 2018. Furthermore, as outlined in this prior article, we believe there remains some downside risk to the EIA’s growth production estimates.

Global output averaged 97.7mn bpd in December 2017 and January 2018, lower than the average of 98mn bpd in October and November 2017 and despite the relative increase in U.S. production over the past four months. Declining production in Venezuela and some temporary outages in the North Sea have been the main reasons for the recent decline in output. As such, and assuming some rebound in production from these regions in 2018, we can probably work off an output base of 98mn bpd for Q4 2017.

Global demand averaged roughly 98.4mn bpd during H2 2017 according to the latest data from the IEA, suggesting that the market was in an overall supply deficit during the second-half of 2017. As such, using 98.4mn bpd as our base for global demand in Q4 2017 seems reasonable. If we further assume that global demand will match the growth in consumption during 2017 (1.6mn bpd) it would imply an indicative demand figure of 100mn bpd will be reached by Q4 2018.

As a result of the temporary decline in output from Venezuela (we assume temporary but there is no reason to believe that a meaningful rebound will materialize in the near-term) and the North Sea, OECD oil and petroleum product inventories declined sharply during Q4 2017, in fact falling by 55.6mn barrels in December alone. The decline in inventory levels during December constituted the steepest drop since February 2011. As a result, total OECD inventory levels declined to 2851mn barrels and ended the year just 52mn above the five-year average.

So if we further assume that U.S. production will grow by 1.2mn bpd (as per the EIA estimate) in 2018 and we also assume that the IEA will be correct in its optimistic forecast for non-U.S. and non-OPEC output growth of 350,000 bpd (doubtful*), then total global output growth will reach roughly 1.55mn bpd , essentially matching anticipated demand growth. This will translate into an anticipated global output level of around 99.5mn bpd in Q4 2018, which still leaves the market in a supply deficit. Naturally, all of this assumes that OPEC will retain its current level of production throughout 2018, which may not be the case.

Nevertheless, an average supply deficit of 400,000 bpd in H2 2018 would lead to a further decline in OECD inventory levels of around 72mn barrels, and would take inventory levels below the five-year average. As also discussed in this same prior article, it is worth remembering that there is a severe distortion in the type of incremental crude oil supply that will come onto the market from the U. S., being mainly lighter oil or condensate. We don’ t have reliable data on the composition of OECD inventory levels (in terms of API), but it would be safe to say that by the end of 2018, inventory levels for heavier crude types could be significantly below the five-year or even 10-year average.

*If we look at some independent data on global upstream capital investment we can see that total capital spending is likely to remain below prior peak levels until at least 2020/21.

Source: McKinsey Energy Insight’s Global Liquids and North American supply models

In fact, if we narrow in on capital investment in the offshore segment, the decline has been even starker.

Source: Subsea 7 investor presentation, please refer to following article for definition of a “Subsea Tree”.

Offshore oil production accounts for roughly 30% of total global oil output (29mn bpd) of which deepwater accounts for roughly a third or 9mn bpd. The average reported decline rate for offshore oil fields is between 5% and 9%, which means that some 1.5mn bpd and 3mn bpd in new capacity is required annually, solely to keep net oil output flat. Given the reduced capital investment (particularly in the offshore segment) over the past few years, it is hard to imagine that non-U.S. and non-OPEC oil output will show incremental net growth sufficient to offset existing natural decline rates.

However, even if the IEA is correct in its projections for 2018 and the oil market therefore remains fairly balanced, the longer-term outlook is even more uncertain. Taking a look at the most recently published AEO for 2018, the EIA itself expects U.S. oil production to top out by 2020-2021 at around 12mn bpd. This scenario is based on its ‘reference case’ which is in turn is based on an assumption that oil prices trend higher towards $80-$90 over the next four years. Although growth from the various” shale” basins will be significant, some of the additional output growth will also be required to offset the decline in US conventional oil output over the next five years.

Source: EIA, AEO 2018

What does this imply? Even if supply growth manages to exceed demand growth in 2018, this is unlikely to hold true looking out to 2019 and beyond, assuming oil prices remain below $60 per barrel. Given the long lead time for many offshore projects (not to mention large upfront capital investment), there is a real risk of a severe supply deficit emerging in the period between 2019 and 2022 as U.S. production flattens out, but non-OPEC and non-U.S. oil output remains flat.

Naturally, this is exactly what OPEC and perhaps Russia are waiting for as this will enable them to once again ramp up production into a sustained supply deficit. However, the question that remains is by how much can OPEC and Russian ramp up output, at least over a shorter time period? Most analysis suggests that OPEC could increase production by 1mn bpd over a short time period, so if U.S. production manages to grow by another 1mn bpd in 2019, then a more severe supply deficit will possibly or likely only emerge in 2020.

However, what is perhaps notable is that many of the existing OPEC members are currently still producing at near record levels not dissimilar to the production levels reported in 2015 and 2016, and before the imposition of the so-called production cuts. In fact, based on the data reported by the IEA, production in 2017 (a full-year of production restraint by OPEC) was higher than in 2015, during the infamous ‘market share’ war. In reality, it is only Saudi Arabia and other Arab Persian Gulf states such as the UAE and Kuwait that have implemented meaningful production cuts, and even in this case, production in 2017 was generally higher than the average production reported in 2014.

Source: IEA, Oil Market Report

So the assumption that OPEC can immediately ramp-up production by 1mn bpd in a short space of time is probably flawed. In fact, it is worth noting that OPEC “spare capacity” remains close to the lower end of the recent historical range as reflected in the graphic below. Given some of the geopolitical risks in regions such as the Middle East, there remains a real risk of a supply disruption and spike in global oil prices, should global oil inventories continue to decline over the next two years.

Source: EIA, Short-term Energy Outlook

Therefore, the available data suggests that in the best-case scenario, anticipated growth in global oil output as well as the termination of the OPEC production agreement will match the forecasted growth in global oil demand in 2018 and 2019. Beyond that point, should oil demand continue to grow at around 1.5mn bpd and assuming prices remain below $60 per barrel (thus leading to continued subdued investment levels), the market could experience a more severe supply deficit.

Forward-looking investors should not be focused on what oil prices will do in 2018 when making an investment decision regarding the energy sector. With many oil companies having already hedged a significant portion of their 2018 production, it is largely irrelevant whether or not oil prices temporarily decline to say $50 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, we would point out that thus far this year (despite the expected supply onslaught) the oil market still appears to be far tighter than was the case one year ago, given the continued decline in US inventories during a period that traditionally sees a build in inventories.

What should be relevant for investors, is that even the more sanguine EIA concedes in its recent AEO that in order for US oil production to meet current lofty growth expectations, global oil prices will eventually need to trade higher and back towards $80-$90 per barrel by 2021-22. Therefore, as we have detailed at length in this article, US production growth and the expected attainment of output levels around 12mn bpd by the end of 2019 will be critically important in maintaining a semblance of balance in the global oil market over the next few years.

U.S. E&P companies with larger reserves that are able to grow or at least maintain production at price levels of between $40 and $60 per barrel therefore stand to benefit enormously. In this context, the current disinterest in the sector is somewhat confounding and perhaps at least partially explained by lingering narratives that include concerns over the business model or ability of U.S. shale E&P’ s to generate sustainable free cash flows, and ultimately, concerns over the erosion in demand growth from the growing Electric Vehicle (EV) market. In our next article we will focus more closely on some of these narratives and assess the investment merits of the US shale E&P sector.

seeking alpha



39 Comments on "A Global Perspective On The Outlook For Oil Prices"

  1. Cloggie on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:28 pm 

    Millimind loves to cite the IEA and instrumentalize them for his fossilized 2010 ASPO-Richard Heinberg doom message, however the third IEA graph from the top illustrates the reality of what Michael Klare correctly calls the Third Carbon Age, where thanks to technology, sufficient fossil fuel can be found at acceptible prices to bridge the gap between the outgoing age of conventional coal, oil and gas and the upcoming Solar Age of 100% renewable energy.

    There is no longer any need to worry about energy. Worry about war, climate, over-population, water and other resource-depletion, but not energy.

  2. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:39 pm 

    This is how you destroy an alt right neck beard like clogg

    UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

    University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

    Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
    https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf

    Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
    https://imgur.com/k7VecMq

    Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/

    Powering US using 100 percent renewable energy is a total fantasy
    http://reason.com/blog/2017/06/21/powering-us-using-100-percent-renewable

    IEA Sees No Peak Oil Demand ‘Any Time Soon’
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-any-time-soon-1488816002

  3. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:39 pm 

    Clogg

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

  4. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:40 pm 

    Denialism is another form of insanity that is prevalent these days. There are numerous people who haunt this blog (clogg) simply to try and refute any claim that Collapse is actually in progress. They are obviously fully aware of it, but the coping mechanism here is just to deny every piece of evidence that becomes manifest. Their screams of denial sound like the squealing of a pig beginning delivered to the butchers shop. The volume of their protestations being directly proportional to the proximity of their inevitable fate….

  5. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:44 pm 

    CONDOMS MADE IN CHINA ARE ‘TOO SMALL,’ AFRICAN HEALTH MINISTER COMPLAINS

    http://www.newsweek.com/condoms-made-china-are-too-small-african-minister-complains-825716

  6. Cloggie on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:52 pm 

    Are you sure you want to bring up that subject, millimind?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3748444/Erect-penis-sizes-compared-world.html

  7. Cloggie on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 9:55 pm 

    “Clogg

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!”

    Correction: conventional oil is in decline, unconventional oil and gas is not. Your beloved IEA says so:

    http://peakoil.com/consumption/a-global-perspective-on-the-outlook-for-oil-prices

    /yawn

  8. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:02 pm 

    Clogg

    Unconventional supplies make up a very small amount of total supplies and can’t make up for all the world declining conventional.

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

  9. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:04 pm 

    2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html

    Shell forecasts global Natural Gas supply shortage in mid-2020s
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/shell-warns-of-lng-shortage-as-demand-for-liquefied-natural-gas-booms.html

  10. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:26 pm 

    Clogg

    As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil shortage coming as investments, oil discoveries drop
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR

    Peak Oil Vindicated by the IEA and Saudi Arabia

    Now go shave your neck beard clogg and take shower for once!

  11. MASTERMIND on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:29 pm 

    Meet the Spanish fascist!

    https://i.redd.it/xymqbs6137j01.jpg

    LOL

  12. fmr-paultard on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:30 pm 

    ^mm^
    https://imgur.com/a/r8Thr

  13. fmr-paultard on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 10:48 pm 

    ^clog^
    https://imgur.com/a/dsRNf

  14. fmr-paultard on Thu, 1st Mar 2018 11:01 pm 

    ^mm^
    https://imgur.com/a/8YiGg

  15. Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 12:09 am 

    Clogg

    As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery.

    Hubbert had nothing to say about fracking. Hubbert was a good guy, it is not his fault. Hubbert is irrelevant.

    And so are you.

    Meet your new master, Eurasia:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fym8DAPbUOI

    You openly admitted yesterday that your tribe wants to genocide the white race.

    Europe, Russia and China (2 billion) are ready for you. And so are increasingly white Americans. Time is working against you.

    https://www.rt.com/news/387313-us-losing-leadership-eu-mogherini/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKgf6_Mn7V4

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/opinion/will-mexico-get-half-of-its-territory-back.html

    You’ve picked the wrong enemy, pall.

  16. Antius on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 5:26 am 

    “Are you sure you want to bring up that subject, millimind?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3748444/Erect-penis-sizes-compared-world.html

    LOL. The Russians may talk big, but they just can’t pack the meat!

  17. bobinget on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 8:47 am 

    Canadian heavy barrels are replacing Venezuelan heavy barrels in US Gulf Coast refineries. The Venezuela/Canada heavy crude import gap in PADD 3, once as high as 873,000 b/d, is closing in on parity

    Giovanni Staunovo Retweeted

    Brian Scheid

    @BrianJScheid
    22h22 hours ago
    More
    Canadian heavy barrels are replacing Venezuelan heavy barrels in US Gulf Coast refineries. The Venezuela/Canada heavy crude import gap in PADD 3, once as high as 873,000 b/d, is closing in on parity @EIAgov data shows #OOTT #Venezuela

    (I’m guessing Canada, CNQ? can replace all missing heavy crude for Russian owned CITGO)
    Bob

  18. bobinget on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 8:53 am 

    Oh, ALL of Venezuelan exports for Feb did not break a M B p/d. (on average)

    The same folks who ignore/deny AGW, also seemed to have lost ability to count.
    The WH still threatens to cut Venezuelan imports.

    “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

  19. JuanP on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 10:07 am 

    Micromind “CONDOMS MADE IN CHINA ARE ‘TOO SMALL,’ AFRICAN HEALTH MINISTER COMPLAINS”
    What the fuck does the size of Chinese condoms have to do with oil prices? You are as retarded a person as I’ve ever interacted with.

  20. Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 12:31 pm 

    LOL. The Russians may talk big, but they just can’t pack the meat!

    I wonder what millimind could “bring to the table” at prevailing Siberian temperatures. Wouldn’t probably pass as a shrimp at a bonafide Dutch fish-market.lol

  21. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 3:47 pm 

    JanP +1000

    Re about 90% of what Millimind (an apt nickname) posts.

  22. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 4:27 pm 

    Declining conventional oil will be the final nail in the coffin.

    Because they wont able to do anything about it..

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

  23. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 4:28 pm 

    The US cannot compete in the global economy. It’s a fake economy.

    https://imgur.com/a/jQy4N

  24. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 4:30 pm 

    This is how you treat a White Nationalist!

    https://i.imgur.com/PVa60tN.gifv

    https://imgur.com/a/bcGnB

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlUxCsQMuwY

  25. Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 4:41 pm 

    In America trains can go to the East as well, millimind (New York State or New Israel to be precise). It’s that time of the year again.

    https://goo.gl/images/G8tjC8

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qEfRzNd7MhE

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-uFXbAaX45k

  26. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 5:16 pm 

    Clogg

    Nobody even cares what two pathetic losers have to say! Looks how few of hits those videos have..sad and pathetic.

  27. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 5:18 pm 

    World & OECD Economic Growth (GDP) & Global Debt
    https://imgur.com/a/MbYWl

    Europe going down the toilet clogg! They are going to bring in more migrants to boast their GDP! LOL

  28. Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 5:31 pm 

    “Europe going down the toilet clogg! ”

    Millimind and his 2015 OECD data.lol

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/09/news/economy/europe-economy-upswing/index.html

    What your tribe has on offer for America is becoming a third world country. What we in Europe have on offer for European-America is European civilization (under our leadership since America f* up big-time).

    Guess who is going to win this fight?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsions_of_Jews

  29. Cloggie on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 6:07 pm 

    German former foreign minister Fisher has written a book, “the downfall of the West”:

    https://www.amazon.de/Abstieg-Westens-Europa-Weltordnung-Jahrhunderts/dp/3462051652/ref=sr_1_1

    Let’s bring it on! The downfall of modernity, of liberalism, of multicult, of “progress”. Down with the West, long live the North!

    http://tinyurl.com/y8ydx6a9

  30. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 7:01 pm 

    Clogg

    There was a link to the world bank for updated data past 2015..and nothing changed…Do you really think a forty year decline is getting reversed? LOL And your CNN article is laughable and doesn’t even talk about your economic growth GDP.

  31. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 7:03 pm 

    Clogg

    Europe is on the same gutter path as the US. Its no different at all statistically speaking!
    https://imgur.com/a/MbYWl

  32. Boat on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 8:15 pm 

    Hell MM life is awesome. My car and house have grate AC. When I was 19 I bought my first house. Had a water cooler, fan sitting on a chair pointing down to sleeping bags in front of the TV. A cool zone. 4 years later I bought a window AC unit that would cool a room. I thought I had it great. My truck had no AC. 6 years later I got a new Elcamino. Awesome AC. My suggestion to a crashing life…..Get a job and work overtime. Then you can buy shit and be hated for it by idiots on this site. Lol

    room.

  33. Boat on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 8:28 pm 

    Bob

    Venz owns refineries in the US called Citgo. Of course they send oil to them. Just like the Saudi sends oil to their refinery. If Venz gets more out of control the Cheeto might just shut them down. We lose a few tax dollars and they lose about the only thing left that makes money.

  34. GregT on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 9:38 pm 

    “Then you can buy shit and be hated for it by idiots on this site.”

    Not everyone judges quality of life by the sizes of their televisions, or whether their AC is ‘grate’ or not Boat.

    Some people are a little bit more complex than that.

  35. MASTERMIND on Fri, 2nd Mar 2018 11:09 pm 

    Boat

    I have a full time job and have worked since I was 13 (which is only legal if you are working on a farm). Good job on assuming and getting it all wrong.

  36. GregT on Sat, 3rd Mar 2018 1:44 am 

    MM,

    It must have built an enormous amount of character in you, holding down a full time job, while completing grades seven through twelve, plus university.

  37. Cloggie on Sat, 3rd Mar 2018 2:44 am 

    I have a full time job and have worked since I was 13 (which is only legal if you are working on a farm). Good job on assuming and getting it all wrong.

    Already made up your mind whether you have a degree in economics or chemistry? And the other day you had said that you quit university to care for somebody (mother?) because making a career made no sense anyway in the light of immanent collapse of civilization?

    You gotta keep your stories straight millimind/apneaman.

  38. Cloggie on Sat, 3rd Mar 2018 2:49 am 

    Hell MM life is awesome. My car and house have grate AC. When I was 19 I bought my first house.

    You were involved in the street level white powder trade that early, eh.

    Had a water cooler, fan sitting on a chair pointing down to sleeping bags in front of the TV. A cool zone. 4 years later I bought a window AC unit that would cool a room. I thought I had it great. My truck had no AC. 6 years later I got a new Elcamino. Awesome AC. My suggestion to a crashing life…..Get a job and work overtime. Then you can buy shit and be hated for it by idiots on this site. Lol

    When you, a little bored, are watching blackball on the telly, do you ever have thoughts about the future of your country or do you pick up the opinions from your 50 inch screen?

  39. Cloggie on Sat, 3rd Mar 2018 4:09 am 

    Clogg

    Europe is on the same gutter path as the US. Its no different at all statistically speaking!

    Really. I would say we in (western) Europe have the luck of being 20 years “behind” you in demographic demise and exactly that fact will provide us with an opening to finally escape from the empire and turn the tables and get the upper hand.

    Some of the Eurovision songs 2018 are released. One must warn sensitive Americans as the videos are all very white.

    Warning, extremely graphic:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ES4KP0WeKxM

    This week the Dutch entry became known. As always the Dutch try to be as American as possible, it’s a cultural heritage thingy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9gDxFS5bug

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWe8PRsW4T0

    But make no mistake, Holland may be the mother of Anglosphere…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9PRYhT09l0

    …but after 1945 the country made a U-turn and became decisive in bringing together France and Germany and now we are fully committed to continental Europe and we will not follow the Brexit-path of Britain.

    The future is Eurasia, not Anglosphere.

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