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Page added on September 30, 2015

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$4 Gasoline By May 2016

$4 Gasoline By May 2016 thumbnail

Summary

Expect higher gasoline and oil prices in 200 days.

US Peak Oil from Fracking was in July 2015.

US Oil Production down 474,000 barrels per day since July 2015.

Watch EIA TWIP Report to understand oil inventories.

“Glut” of oil to deplete in 200 days.

Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices to ratchet much higher. Those two forces can be easily tracked by watching EIA’s “This Week in Petroleum” or TWIP. The two forces are:

  • US crude oil domestic production.
  • US crude oil stocks

The current TWIP reports a 474,000 barrel per day decrease in US oil production since July 2015.

(click to enlarge)

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19 Comments on "$4 Gasoline By May 2016"

  1. makati1 on Wed, 30th Sep 2015 10:31 pm 

    “Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices to ratchet much higher. Those two forces can be easily tracked by watching EIA’s “This Week in Petroleum” or TWIP.”

    Twip or Twit? Same difference … lol.

    More pimp music for the stupid investor brought to you by their Madam, the EIA.

    “TWIT 1 : an act of twitting : taunt 2 : a silly annoying person : fool. M-W

    Am I wrong Short?

  2. BC on Wed, 30th Sep 2015 11:07 pm 

    https://app.box.com/s/zgwur11bfgqu4t47c72btz13ugw2vtnf

    Seasonal factors and the prospects of a global deflationary recession imply wholesale gasoline below a buck this fall-winter.

  3. rockman on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 6:16 am 

    BC – I might not agree with your prediction but I also know, like you, that the condition of the global economies will have much more influence on the price of motor fuel then the volume of oil being produced.

  4. joe on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 8:08 am 

    The refiners will have to pay more if supply gluts end, that’s econ101. Good graph. As shale dries up, the price has stabilised, we already passed peak 30dlr oil for sure then. If the FED raises rates now and easy money ends then it’s toastie time for the consumer and 30dlr could happen for a short time while shale dies, screaming. One more jolt, on the bumpy plateau.

  5. marko on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 9:12 am 

    shortonoil comment please

  6. penury on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 9:29 am 

    Is anyone watching the M,E,? The economic picture for the U.S. and the rest of the world is not good. Our fall back option is war. However, despite the claims of the Generals I think that in the era of Inter=continental nukes and submarines carrying nukes, the next war may involve the homeland and not be fought strictly in Europe.

  7. makati1 on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 10:31 am 

    penury, be careful. some here believe that the US Homeland is safe from attack. Too bad the Germans didn’t carry through their plans to invade the US during WW2. The support of war might be altogether different today had bombs fallen on NYC and DC. The next one will surely come home to roost.

  8. Revi on Thu, 1st Oct 2015 7:30 pm 

    We’ll see…
    Maybe we’ll have one last round of price hikes before the whole thing goes belly up…

  9. Kenz300 on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 10:13 am 

    Buy a bicycle….. care less about the price of oil….

  10. Beery on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 3:01 pm 

    Am I the only one immature enough to notice that the graph looks a little bit like a penis?

  11. Davy on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 3:09 pm 

    Well Beer, I scrolled up to check it out so that makes me a gawker.

  12. antaris on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 4:33 pm 

    Dogs penis

  13. shortonoil on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 7:53 pm 

    Historically the cost of petroleum has been between 68 and 71% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. $4 gas puts oil at $114 to $119/ barrel.

    Here is the maximum price that the economy can pay for oil at any point in time:

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

    Beyond those levels the economy contracts, demand goes down, and price goes back to the curve.

    Dream on!

  14. Boat on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 9:00 pm 

    short,
    You have one problem with that theory. Gasoline did go up to 3.80. Oil went to over $100 per barrel. And yet the economy expanded and grew. The worlds economy also grew.
    Now the price is $45 or so and the world is growing even faster. Production and consumption. You got nice charts but they are full of disinformation. The 10 recent history is easy to find. Try their graphs. IEA, EIA, IMF etc

  15. GregT on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 9:36 pm 

    You are again leaving out a few minor details Boat. 8.5 trillion dollars in US federal debt alone, historically low interest rates, and exponential growth. The fact that you still can’t figure out what these mean after endless conversations with you, leads me to believe that you are not very bright.

  16. Boat on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 10:07 pm 

    GregT

    Stuff like this is happening all over the world. What a machine.

    http://www.cospp.com/articles/2015/10/niehl-3-chp-unit-connects-to-german-grid.html

  17. apneaman on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 10:13 pm 

    Boat, the only thing that has grown has been debt and useless consumption. There are places that are having a difficult time filling potholes and repairing leaking water and gas lines. 4 trillion dollars is needed to bring it up to speed. Debt collapse is near. Print Baby Print.

    Municipal Bankruptcies and more on the way

    http://www.batr.org/negotium/093015.html

    USA debts bombs bursting

    “Now, the government in the USA owes $46 trillion, US corporations owe $15 trillion, US individuals owe $13 trillion plus there are $315 trillion in outstanding wall street derivatives. (Few Americans know what a derivative is, but we as a nation are on the hook for up to $315 trillion in additional debt because of these derivatives.) These debt figures continue to escalate with each passing month.”

    http://english.pravda.ru/business/finance/02-10-2015/132222-usa_debt_bomb-0/

  18. GregT on Fri, 2nd Oct 2015 11:17 pm 

    Boat,

    Hey look, a squirrel!

  19. shortonoil on Sat, 3rd Oct 2015 6:37 am 

    “The fact that you still can’t figure out what these mean after endless conversations with you, leads me to believe that you are not very bright.”

    He has probably invested his life savings in a buggy whip manufacturer because “you forgot that sales hit 50,000 per year at one point (1883)” . Boat, oil is never, never going back to $100/ barrel. If in the event it did the economy would collapse, and you would be eating the weeds out of your lawn!

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