Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on April 30, 2018

Bookmark and Share

$300 oil is ‘not impossible’ within a few years

Consumption
  • Leading oil hedge fund manager, Pierre Andurand, said that $300 per barrel oil is “not impossible” within the next few years.
  • Lack of investment in new production due to low oil prices and fears of electric vehicle peak demand could create higher crude prices, Andurand said in a tweet on Sunday.
  • “So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever,” he wrote, adding, “If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible.”

LONDON — Pierre Andurand, a leading oil fund manager, said that lack of investment in new production could lead to a situation where $300 per barrel oil is “not impossible” within the next few years, Bloomberg reported.

Andurand, who runs oil hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP, wrote in a string of tweets on Sunday that companies may be less willing to risk investment in long term oil projects because of low crude barrel prices and a predicted peak in electric vehicle demand.

The price of oil could then spike in the future if the lower oil production meets higher than expected demand.

“So paradoxically these peak demand fears might bring the largest supply shock ever,” he wrote, adding, “If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible”.

The French hedge fund manager, who is known for being bullish on the market, also said that $100 per barrel oil will not harm the economy. “Demand is inelastic” and the economy can absorb price increases, he said.

“So no, $100 oil will not kill the economy… And we need +$100 oil to encourage enough investments outside of the U.S.”

The tweets were spotted by Javier Blas, Bloomberg’s chief energy correspondent:

—Javier Blas (@JavierBlas2) April 30, 2018 ” data-e2e-name=”embed-container” data-media-container=”embed”>

The comments reflect those made by Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih who this month said that oil prices could rise to $75 without causing economic damage. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plan to maintain their cuts in production which have helped boost the prices so far.

Concerns over future oil investment come during a time of uncertainty for the industry. A new survey by the Sustainable Investment and Finance Association (UKSIF) reported that the number of fund managers that expect the value of oil firms to drop in the next few years has doubled.

business insider



31 Comments on "$300 oil is ‘not impossible’ within a few years"

  1. Hello on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 8:36 am 

    What kills the economy is the FLUCTUATIONS in oil price. Give me a steady $300 price instead and I give you humming economy with full employment.

  2. Antius on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 8:59 am 

    That would push the price of gasoline over $10/gallon. For the UK, it would add something like $100billion to the annual import bill. Other European countries, much the same. It couldn’t go on for very long without causing a big recession, especially when you consider how much more heavily indebted we are compared to 2008.

  3. twocats on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:03 am 

    hello – no way. economy could not push those costs all the way down to the end user without crushing 2/3rds of the economy.

  4. Hello on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:05 am 

    >>> it would add something like $100billion to the annual import bill

    yes, but that don’t matter much. The money goes to whoever supplies the oil. They can then order them expensive rolls royce from the UK. The size of the global economy won’t change much. Granted it gets shifted around a bit, that’s it.

  5. Hello on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:08 am 

    >> economy could not push those costs all the way down to the end user without crushing 2/3rds of the economy.

    Why would that be?
    Does it matter for you if you make your money as a used car sales man or an oil man? You still get your paycheck, you still buy groceries.

    Nothing changes much.

  6. Hello on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:15 am 

    But the CHANGE is what kills.
    A rise of price from $100 to $300 over night is equally damaging as a drop from $300 to $100 in a day.

  7. Darrell Cloud on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 9:48 am 

    We have already seen this movie in 07 and 08. We saw the working class and the middle class get hammered in the last leg down. This time around we will see pensioners and government employees get hammered. Zimbabwe was a microcosm, but it clearly shows the end result of an economy held together by exponential money printing. At some point the tide goes out.

  8. BobInget on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 10:17 am 

    Good thinking Darrel Cloud.

    By this time in May we will see $100 crude beginning to beat the crap outta N. America’s working class.

    If there are two things that will make America’s 40% turn on Trump, it’ll be $4 gasoline and a greater world war.

    http://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/article210125059.html

    At this point Iran is denying Iranian military deaths

    My guess, Iran doesn’t want to be drawn into
    a direct confrontation with Israel when their
    biggest enemy Saudi Arabia, is looking for a hotter war.
    Putin is also shy to join w/Iran at this stage.

    Iran will try to drum up a series of religious proxy wars before launching any of their own missiles

  9. deadly on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 10:18 am 

    I want 500 dollars for a 42 gallon bucket of oil. Get in line, you filthy swine.

    300 will seem like a bargain. People will suffer even more, and they should.

    Those in poverty exist on a buck ninety per day and they can most afford a fifty percent drop in disposable income to help save the dying middle class.

    There are 267 million people in India that are middle class, about 2/3rds the entire population of the US.

    500 dollar oil will reduce those numbers substantially as it should, the money has to be in the right hands and the people of India don’t need it that bad.

    Therefore, 500 dollar oil will direct the money into the proper confines of money hoarding.

    That’s all.

  10. Anonymous on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 10:52 am 

    Well, anything could happen. Is Andurand saying he things it WILL happen? And he has been pretty wrong about oil price since 2014. He was in the 100+ forever camp, back then…and frequently predicting price rises since then, that have been lower/later than his predictions. But I guess it is hard to disprove someone who doesn’t make an actual prediction.

  11. fmr-paultard on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 11:31 am 

    why do these guys keep saying this when they’re as furthest removed from reality as possible. i mean the dude is mostly about pushing the enter key in exchange for bling.

    i admire him for saying $300 but then he plays games with his “explanations”.

    money is only a mechanism of wealth extraction. it is subjective. how can something subjective have strong coorelation to something tangible such as the amount of oil remaining?

    some dudes pay more for prostitution some for less, that’s subjective!

  12. BobInget on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:17 pm 

    Deadly, et all:

    “I have been following Core Lab comments since July 2015. Dave Demshur at that time said ME production was at unsustainable levels and carbonate reservoirs will be affected at that rate.

    CLB now says ME needs EOR to even to sustain production. CLB also said that they are working closely to come up with solutions on EOR for ME.

    The only countries with any spare capacity are KSA and Kuwait. Rest of them are dead. And you know that these countries need higher oil price”

    Oil will NEVER hit $500. Even $150 will cause
    massive switching to CNG (compressed natural gas), EV’S and limited air travel.

    Plastics already under fire will find substitutes.

    The ‘good’ news. Thanks to tech we have way too much natural gas. So much gas it’s being flared due to lack of pipelines.

    (one reason KSA decided to go to war on Qatar
    is its massive NG reserves)

    If there is such a thing as a sure thing it’s natural gas and ‘fuel switching’.

  13. BobInget on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:34 pm 

    Acording to administration officials, Trump has still not made up his mind on whether to extend the exemptions.
    If they are not extended, the currently exempted countries would likely retaliate.
    Removing the exemptions would be a negative for the US economy, businesses, and financial markets according to economists.
    President Donald Trump is facing a critical decision regarding recently announced steel and aluminum tariffs, and the choice could determine whether or not the US throws itself into a trade war with some of its closest allies.

    Trump has until midnight to determine whether to extend steel and aluminum tariff exemptions for a handful of nations. The exemptions allow several US allies — including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico — to avoid a 25% duty on exports of steel to the US and the 10% duty on exports of aluminum.

    The Trump administration granted the exemptions shortly after the president’s decision to impose the tariffs, but the move was only temporary and predicated on the promise of talks to reduce trade imbalances between the US and other countries. Currently, five of the US’s 10 largest sources of imported steel are exempted from the tariffs.

    Most administration officials are pushing for Trump to at least extend the exemptions to continue talks on trade remedies, Jonathan Swan of the news website Axios reported. But a handful — most notably top trade adviser Peter Navarro — are pushing Trump to impose the tariffs on everyone.

    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross sounded a hopeful tune in an interview with Bloomberg on Saturday. He suggested that most countries — but not all — will see their exemptions extended.

    But Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Monday that Trump had not made a decision on the exemptions despite the looming deadline .

    “The president has not made any decision yet,” Mnuchin said during an interview on Fox Business. “We’ve been having lots of discussions internally, we’ve been having lots of discussions with our counterparts.”

    Allowing the exemptions to expire would likely lead to retaliation from those nations and possibly trigger a broader trade war.

    In a statement released Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that after discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Teresa May, the leaders “agreed that the US ought not to take any trade measures against the European Union.” Merkel also threatened retaliation if the tariffs kicked in.

    “The European Union should be ready to decisively defend its interests within the framework of multilateral trade rules,” Merkel said.

    According to multiple reports, negotiations to stall the tariffs’ imposition have stalled and while some countries currently exempted are confident an extension is on the way, nothing is guaranteed.

    The Trump administration is seeking concrete plans from exempted countries on methods to reduce the bilateral trade deficit with the US.

    For instance, South Korea received a permanent exemption to the tariffs by agreeing to a quota for steel products, which limits the amount of metals the country can send the US in a year. The quota deal came as part of a broader renegotiation on the US and South Korea’s bilateral trade deal, KORUS.

    Ross said at a conference Friday that the administration is offering the exempted countries a binary choice.

    “We are asking of everyone quotas if there isn’t a tariff,” Ross said.

    Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, warned of financial shocks if the tariffs go into effect.

    “The risk is that we could see a major supply chain shock with negative spillovers to financial markets,” Daco wrote in a note to clients. “As a reminder, on the day of the tariffs announcement, stocks prices fell nearly 2% while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 10 basis points and the dollar weakened 0.5%.”

  14. BobInget on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:40 pm 

    Benjamin Netanyahu statement any minute CNN
    Takes one back to when they were building the case for the Iraq invasion. Trump up next after the Netanyahu dog and pony show.

    Finally, the oil markets seem to see dangers.

    Spoiler alert, One way or another.

    Trump will kill us all. Slowly and painfully.

  15. Cloggie on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 12:54 pm 

    Benjamin Netanyahu statement any minute CNN
    Takes one back to when they were building the case for the Iraq invasion. Trump up next after the Netanyahu dog and pony show.

    https://latuffcartoons.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/netanyahu-obama-aipac.gif

    (swap Obama for Trump)

  16. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 1:02 pm 

    Clogg

    I predicted this last year. I said all the warmongering about North Korea would never happen. And it was just to get the public thirsty for war. And then they would pivot back to Iran and go after there oil. I thought it would be a Tillerson move.

  17. BobInget on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 1:04 pm 

    just in: IRAN LIED!

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/pm-expected-to-reveal-how-iran-cheated-world-on-nuke-program-1.6045300

    This is prelude to WW 3.
    Thank you Israel, Trump, Saudi Prince whatitsname.

    https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/saudi-prince-palestinians-should-shut-up-or-make-peace-1.6036624

    (In other words “we won’t offer ANY help if you try to open a second front against Israel)

    There is now little doubt, Israel and Saudi Arabia’s coalition will do a preemptive strike or strikes on Iran. IOW’s we are totally fucked.

  18. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 1:08 pm 

    Bomb, bomb, bomb. bomb. bomb. Iran!

  19. Cloggie on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:08 pm 

    $300 oil?

    Renewable energy industry: bring it on!

    [insert sound of rubbing hands here]

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/04/28/dutch-company-tennet-plans-30-gw-offshore-wind-park/

  20. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:26 pm 

    hello: Wrong on both counts.

    1). The crude oil has tended to fluctuate widly and frequently for the past 35ish years.

    And this has “killed” the US or global economy for the past 35 years? I don’t think so. Try making a statement that at least VAGUELY correlates with reality.

    2). While I constantly argue with the ETP crowd claiming that we’re doomed because people can’t afford oil even at $50 or so, despite all the evidence to the contrary, your claim re the $300 and stable means healthy economy makes no sense, and you have NO data to make your case.

    Now, I’d actually LIKE $300 a barrel oil over, say, a 5 year period — to very strongly push people toward green energy and cars and away from stupidly burning lots of FF’s and continuing to accelerate AGW.

    However, that doesn’t mean there would be no economic impact as the world adjusts.

    If you’re going to make such a claim, at least TRY to back it up a little, or you just seem like a random clown, like those who proclaim doom each and every month, and pretend they’re always right about the next one.

  21. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:28 pm 

    Darrel, let’s randomly pretend like oil prices, not real estate, is the primary cause of the 2008-2009 recession. Let’s ignore all the data and the economists.

    Because that makes us so credible. NOT.

  22. Outcast_Searcher on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:30 pm 

    Mastermindless. What about your thousands of completely nonsensical predictions which failed completely. Oh right. We’re supposed to pretend none of that happened. Epic fail for your credibility score, overall.

    Not that this keeps you from constantly braying nonsense.

  23. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:42 pm 

    Outcast

    What thousands of nonsensical predictions? I have said the same exact thing since day one. That the global collapse will happen within the next decade. I made awhole manifesto that said that. See the third to last chart based on the limits to growth models.
    https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa

  24. MASTERMIND on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 3:46 pm 

    Outcast

    The oil price averaged 19 dollars a barrel from 1960-2000 (Inflation adjusted)…You don’t know shit about energy. You stupid troll..

  25. Boat on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 4:34 pm 

    Mm

    You know higher oil prices are from giving away health care and funding immigrant infrastructure, along with military adventurism that’s never paid for which devalued the dollar.

  26. makati1 on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 4:56 pm 

    Anything is possible with hyperinflation, which seems ot be coming in the near future.

    Zimbabwe: March 2007 – November 2008
    Daily inflation rate: 98 percent
    Prices doubled every: 25 hours

    Hungary: August 1945 – July 1946
    Daily inflation rate: 207 percent
    Prices doubled every: 15 hours

    Weimar Germany: August 1922 – December 1923
    Daily inflation rate: 21 percent
    Prices doubled every: 3 days, 17 hours

    http://www.businessinsider.com/worst-hyperinflation-episodes-in-history-2013-9

    “Hyperinflationary episodes have appeared several times over the past century – 55, to be exact – as the world’s nations have experimented with fiat currencies backed by the full faith and credit of the governments that issue them.”

    Are YOU prepared?

  27. Davy on Mon, 30th Apr 2018 5:42 pm 

    3rd world, are you prepared? You are living off the small social security check. Seems to me you are the most vulnerable here.

  28. Sys1 on Tue, 1st May 2018 7:34 am 

    Whatever the prices, what is coming is end of cheap oil.

  29. rockman on Tue, 1st May 2018 10:01 am 

    Outcast – Exactly. Oil prices can boom to very high levels or drop to very low levels. But only short periods of time. Obviously better to speculate in longer time periods…like a yearly average. Of course if the author had used $300/bbl as a future year average I doubt many publications would have posted his bullsh*t.

    Just one more writer with no substance to report trying to make a living

  30. makati1 on Tue, 1st May 2018 6:29 pm 

    Hahahahaha. Davy your mind is so closed, it makes a bank vault look like cardboard box. OR, your meds are not working. Get them checked. YOU are the “most vulnerable” and it has you scared shitless. LMAO

    If it makes you fell more secure by believing that I need that SS, go for it. But you are wrong and I keep pointing that out to your deluded mind. I will live a comfortable life AFTER SS goes down the drain, which, BTW, I expect to happen soon after the crash.

    It’s purchasing power is shrinking month by month and is now worth about 1/3 of what it was worth when I moved here 10 years ago. It’s called “inflation”. Just like the dollar bill in your wallet is shrinking, soon to be worthless. Think Zimbabwe/Weimer Republic/Venezuela. The Great Leveling continues.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *