I hate to sound too positive, but I don't think it's necessary. Slowly but certainly the economy is adapting to more scarce resources. As an example car manufacturers close down factories where inefficient cars are being made, while some are increasing production of their more efficient models. The market is doing its work. Awareness can speed up the process, but if companies continue to do what they did before, they will die like the dinosaurs. And be replaced by more adaptive mammals/companies.

Good lord! Another one of the "invisible hand of the market will save us" crowd.

We don't need more cars, no matter how efficient. You think efficiency gains negates the finite nature of resources? You think an economic and debt-based money system can go on forever?

That is short-term, short-sighted, and very selfish thinking.

There is no techno-fix for this.

Read this thread:

Peak Oil: The Tip of the Iceberg

Except in Japan for a decade. GDP doubled while energy consumption remained flat. That being said, there haven't been many opportunities to observe what happens to GDP with contracting energy supplies, or in this case oil supplies, since oil hasn't stayed high enough in price over a long enough time to allow for a larger data set, as the quote you used states.
I never said you, or anyone was. Are you having trouble reading (I kid!)?
Addressing overpopulation is not a solution to our energy problem... at all, especially if we don't address current energy consumption. Clearly, few solutions to problems are going to be based on singular approaches.
Regardless of resource availability, given the negative externalities associated fossil fuel use, it's better to consume less unless one is profiting disproportionately from it's consumption. One can consume all they like, but a competitor, all things being equal, who consumes less, will have a competitive edge over them. If American's want to flush trillions of dollars down the drain on oil instead of using it efficiently and utilizing alternatives, that's fine. But doing so and complaining about cost is idiocy at it's best.
Yes. And it includes distancing ourselves from warped versions of an observation of coal consumption during the 18th century and using the modern instantiation. While conservation may not decrease consumption by the maximal amount possible, it is effective, especially when a resource's consumption cannot be increased by definition, such as post peak.

Recently 40% of world GDP growth has been from financial speculation: selling something already made for a higher price. No real growth in the produciton of goods and services or wages, that usually defines GDP growth.

It's all an illusion. Easy to double GDP if you just resell exisiting assets at a profit. Is this really a measure of GDP growth?

It surely has not come from efficiency gains as many like to think.

Look at how the derivatives market is unwinding.

700 trillion in a 40 trillion economy? OMG!

I believe you answered that question earlier. While selling an asset for a gain, especially in light of current situations, may not be ethical and/or right, the individual and/or group ultimately paying for it, and perhaps getting "ripped off" still has to have the wealth as a result of their own goods/services. GDP itself is just a measure of economic activity, so if holders of stock and the taxpayer get suckered by Bear Stearns, it doesn't necessarily mean that the wealth they lost was somehow fictional, just that their perceived "gains" may have been, they were suckered, and lost some of their wealth.

Otoh, during the ~70s Japans growth came from the usual sectors and efficiency gains. What improved efficiency allowed them to do was continue with whatever it was that they were doing while others had to drop production due to increased costs, which gave them a significant competitive advantage at that time. Increased efficiency can lead to GDP growth, but the current situations (subprime/derivatives) we're seeing aren't a result of that.
Gaming different systems for profit has been commonplace in human history AFAIK. IMO, the largely unregulated derivative market is just the latest "craze" in this arena.

And whom would we revolt against?

If our country was splintered and in turmoil, it would make a good recipe for other countries to come in for the kill.

Everyone wants a piece of our real estate.

Its my island!

The best summary I've seen. Well said!!!

But you forgot one thing. These are also the people REPRODUCING at an alarming rate. While my doctorate-holding, smart-cookie friends are deciding to remain childless, I see the unwashed masses reproducing themselves without nary a consideration to the resources they can devote to the raising of that child. Do they have the money to provide for the wee one? Do they have the time to help with 12 solid years of homework? Do they have the familial support to help "train up a child in the way that s/he should go?"

Probably not, but they do have the time to go on Maury whats-his-name's show for free paternity testing. Yikes.

And while there's been a lot of talk about what the high gas costs will do to the poor folks, I'm wondering what's going to happen when the entitlement checks stop flowing? What happens when the permanently unemployed learn that it was NOT a fiscally sound budgeting policy to have a few more babies for the welfare money?

Every now and then, I get razzed by someone because the hubby and I both drive two older cars (2001 and 2003 models) but the fact is, they're in terrific shape and were well-maintained and other than our home mortgage, we have zero debts. In other words, it's surprising to people that we live BELOW our means. When did that get to be such an oddity???

HF

I scanned 2 pages of messages before the truth appeared. Rationing is necessary. The question is whether or not the trade will be legal? A poor person with no need for coupons could sell his/her coupons to the highest bidder. Wait! That would empower the poor and isn't really good for the wealthy. It's better to hire the poor as cops to crush their own.

Stop that common sense right now. It confuses the ideologues.

Americans rich and poor are so removed from the facts of life--hunger, disease, death-of-a-child, etc.--they can not even imagine want or desperation. Unimaginable. They have been pampered so long that they believe it is their down fault. Americans have no idea that the wealth and luxury they take for granted came straight out of the barrel of a gun and on the backs of desperately poor people the world over.

We are not wealthy because of our freedom.
We are not wealthy because of our initiative.
We are not wealthy because our capitalist system.

We are wealthy because we discovered the new world and its almost unlimited resource-base (including the the greatest oil bonanza ever)----first. And we parlayed all that into one big kickass army. Now we own the world's wealth. Or did.

The DayDream is ending folks. All this propaganda about Americans is about to be history. Communism failed. Socialism sort of works. Captitalism (with a capital C) was great while we were awash in cheap stuff. It was okay for some to be greedy while the poor had enough to eat, a place to sleep, and a future.

The 'free-market' will suddenly look very suspect when you are hungry All of a sudden it will stop being chic to pander to the your boss. Not the day after he fired you from your job.

STOP! The truth hurts too much

My favorite line about America is:
'Praising the USA for it's wealth and success is like praising someone for a home run when they started on third base.'

That is to say the US is a huge landmass sitting on some of the best resources in the world. It almost couldn't help becoming a wealthy nation.
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One of the reasons why demand is diminishing in the USA and still growing in China and other countries is that those other governments are subsidizing the price of gas. When gas gets REALLY expensive you will see those other governments unable to afford their subsidies and global demand will diminish, but it will be too late and not enough.

When gas gets REALLY expensive you will see the environmentalist's resistance to drilling in ANWR and other places disappear and we'll start drilling, but as y'all know there isn't nearly enough oil in those places. So you'll have brief dips in speculation driving up the price of oil, but nothing long term will happen.

Most folks you talk to who are pissed about gas, have NO IDEA that the world consumes about 80 million barrels a day. They blame OPEC or Exxon for price gouging or the war or something, but never once on how we've build a society that requires the biggest straw sucking on your milkshake. So yeah, the people, (congress) will demand rationing and 'driving holidays' the second there's shortages. And it won't work.

We might manage to get some percentage of renewable energy up and running but it won't be enough. (But I'm preaching to the choir here...)

No one in power is truly considering the common good for the whole nation. Politicians and energy executives can afford their own islands of electricity so their's no reason to give a rat's ass about anyone else. Noone seems to understand that with finite resources you can accumulate so much there's no opportunity for others to accumulate. People blame the poor for being poor and blame the sick for being sick, and by the time that hungry, angry hordes are tearing off your roof to get to your okra it will be too late.

Everyone seems to think that it's not going to happen to them. Obviously someone who doesn't have insurance and thinks the US health care system is great is uninformed or deluded into thinking they are somehow going to stay healthy.

People blame a lack of leadership. Our system has leaders, but they are not our politicians. Our leaders are CEOs and bankers. The thing that gets me angry is they are not fighting to help out humanity or their country, they are fighting to help out themselves and their companies. Greed is sucking this planet dry and instead of throwing a wrench in the gears people are trying to get their piece of the pie before there's no pie left.

So yeah, gas rationing during shortages as the signal flare to an crash back to an 18th century lifestyle. Hope you enjoy your Ayn Rand by candlelight.

I just read the whole thread am very surprised there is nothing resembling an economic analysis. So here goes, based on Econ 101 level economics:

The US uses about 25% of the world's oil. I'm afraid I don't know how much of that goes into passenger car gas tanks, but lets say it's 33%, to be likely on the low side. So 1/12 of the worlds oil is going into US passenger car, SUV or truck gas tanks.

A recently reported stat is that consumption of oil drops by 1% for each 20% increase in price. That's wildly inelastic demand, folks.

If we were to give out ration cards to everyone at a level that would decrease passenger vehicle use by 10%, that would drop world oil use by 0.83%, and decrease price by 16.7%.

(That's 16.7% less wahhabi mosques and 16.7% less money for bombs and weaponry in the hands of extremist muslims, btw)

So the price of oil drops to $116/barrel. What would happen to the price of gasoline in reality is that gas would stay at $4 a gallon instead of going to the $5 a gallon that matches $140 a barrel.

Since our PTB favor cap and trade for things like carbon emissions, it stands to reason that they would be allowed for the vouchers (electronic vouchers could be possibility). So people that carpool or bike or whatever could sell their vouchers for maybe $3/gallon (the difference between the price for excess demand and the price at the pump).

That's a total of $7 a gallon incentive for people to conserve gas, but only $4 a gallon goes to our wahhabi "friends".

I may be missing something, but I don't see much that's going to cause civilization to go up in flames from reasonable rationing.

One more benefit to rationing: if the US government follows the precedent set with the stimulus checks and excludes illegal aliens from ration cards, that might encourage more of them to leave.

I forgot one factor in the analysis. You multiply the new price of 83.3% of the old price by the new demand of 99.17% of the old demand to get 82.6% revenue. So there is 17.4% less money going to corrupt and hostile governments. Not much of a difference in this example, but it's important to get stuff right.