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View unanswered posts | View active topics
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SmokinJuan
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Post subject: Re: Gas Rationing. Now today Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 1:59 am |
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Joined: Fri Mar 18, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 19
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Just outside of Indianapolis I noticed a sign printed on an 8.5X11 sheet of paper taped to the counter stating that there was a fifty gallon ration (I belive it also said imposed by the state). I'd like to say who the hell uses 50 gallons of fuel but then realize that it was posted at a TA truck stop. Guess I'll be riding the motorcycle for a while.
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BabyPeanut
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Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:54 am |
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Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 3504 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
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I was exausted and fell asleep early with the lights on. After that I couldn't sleep. Around 5:00 AM here I went to get gas. The Sunoco nearby was out of regular at least. I didn't think to try the midrange or premium, I just went to another station where the prices were higher.
Oh and I got hit on by two people asking for handouts. When I moved here there never were people asking for hand outs. Not during the 90s.
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MJ
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Post subject: Re: Jeb Bush warns of actual gas shortages in Florida Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:39 am |
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Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 1:00 am Posts: 77 Location: Belgium
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Free wrote: Mark my words: It will be business as usual very soon, and afterwards everybody will shrug it off and be happy to forget the shortage as soon as possible. And it will be seen as a confirmation of the view that "they will save us". So in my opinion it will be very counterproductive for PO preparation, because it was just another temporary crisis like in the 70ies which went away again, and surely every crisis in the future will be like that. An oil shock, a spike blah blah blah.
Exactly my thoughts! People want to and will forget any inconvenient event in their life.
The fact that nobody seems to be willing to recognise the main cause of a(near) shortage (or very limited reserves at least) being a supply/demand problem at the ageing and declining fields, and not being an artificial crisis due to hurricanes, terrorists or speculators, leads me to believe people will go on just as they were used to be. And I'm not talking Americans, we Europeans join the game with enthusiasm, and we're looking the other side with an even greater enthusiasm.
In my country, consumer and public organisations start to put pressure on the government to lower taxes on fuels. Allthough we do have one of the highest taxes on petrol, it sends the wrong signal. First quarter of the year, petrol consumption was down by 11% compared to last year, ofcourse this was caused by high prices. Lowering taxes makes petrol cheaper again, which in turn will boost demand (and consumption) instead of lowering it. This certainly will not mitigate transition to alternative fuels, at the contrary, it will lead to accelerated and steeper decline...
What people fail to realise, is that high energy prices are here to stay, in spite of campaigns like the Chevron ads, mainstream media attention or high petrol prices. This is NOT a temporary spike, this will NOT go away anytime soon and we probably will NOT be able to maintain our exuberant life-style as it is today.
_________________ Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.
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MD
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Post subject: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:54 am |
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Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3756 Location: On the ball
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Panic buying is fueling spot shortage problems and price spikes across the US. Some retailers are selling 200-300% more gasoline per day due to panic buying.
If the US has 100 million vehicles that on average are half full, and only 10 percent of those drivers decide to stay "topped off" due to fear, the the daily demand spike would be 70 million gallons! (10 million gas tanks going from an average of 7 gallons on hand to 14 gallons on hand)
Everyone needs to chill. In a couple weeks it will be mostly "business as usual" except for a few communities along the gulf coast.
relax! Peak Oil won't go away! 
_________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Waiting for the next bounce - md@peakoil.com
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LadyRuby
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:05 am |
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Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 1201 Location: Western US
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MD wrote: In a couple weeks it will be mostly "business as usual" except for a few communities along the gulf coast.
Nice to be optimistic, but do you really think so?? I mean, I agree that panic buying won't help the situation, but this will be a problem for quite a while I think. No, it's not peak oil, but it may leap us into a "shorter-term" energy crisis (both gas and natural gas) that may end up blending in later with peak oil issues. So maybe things will improve quite a bit in a couple of years, but maybe not.
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MD
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:15 am |
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Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3756 Location: On the ball
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LadyRuby wrote: MD wrote: In a couple weeks it will be mostly "business as usual" except for a few communities along the gulf coast. Nice to be optimistic, but do you really think so?? I mean, I agree that panic buying won't help the situation, but this will be a problem for quite a while I think. No, it's not peak oil, but it may leap us into a "shorter-term" energy crisis (both gas and natural gas) that may end up blending in later with peak oil issues. So maybe things will improve quite a bit in a couple of years, but maybe not. Yes, I really do think so. The current crisis will fade from headline view rather quickly to be soon replaced by recessionary problems followed by a heating crisis this winter. This round of gasoline shortages will be a brief blip.
_________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Waiting for the next bounce - md@peakoil.com
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BabyPeanut
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:18 am |
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Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 3504 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
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MD wrote: If the US has 100 million vehicles that on average are half full, and only 10 percent of those drivers decide to stay "topped off" due to fear, the the daily demand spike would be 70 million gallons!
But once all tanks and storage containers are full then there's no place else for the gas to go?
Won't that have the opposite effect? If you couple it to economically-driven forced conservation then there will be demand destruction.
Besides if we don't hoard it someone else will.
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MD
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:25 am |
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Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3756 Location: On the ball
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BabyPeanut wrote: MD wrote: If the US has 100 million vehicles that on average are half full, and only 10 percent of those drivers decide to stay "topped off" due to fear, the the daily demand spike would be 70 million gallons! But once all tanks and storage containers are full then there's no place else for the gas to go? Won't that have the opposite effect? If you couple it to economically-driven forced conservation then there will be demand destruction. Besides if we don't hoard it someone else will.
Looking at the other side of the inventory blip, when people relax you get a temporary glut. The feedback loop could "ring" for a while if the inventory managers don't get a grip and if the consumers remain hyperactive.
_________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Waiting for the next bounce - md@peakoil.com
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Leanan
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Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:36 am |
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Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 4673
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CNN was interviewing some Wall St. economist this morning. He was astonished that gas prices had gone so high. He said he never even imagined it.
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MD
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Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:40 am |
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Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 3756 Location: On the ball
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Eli wrote: The Colonial Pipeline has a capacity to move 2.35 million barrels per day. It would take 11,000 tanker trucks leaving every two minutes to transport that much fuel. The pipeline cannot be replaced with trucks.
Math check!
2.35 million divided by 50k per load is 47 loads per day...that's two an hour
_________________ "It's still all about energy!"
Waiting for the next bounce - md@peakoil.com
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ChumpusRex
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Post subject: Re: Fuel Shortages News and Discussion Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:48 am |
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Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 100
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Another arithmetic check.
2.35 M bbl / day = 98 M gal/ day
1 tanker = 11,000 gal
Replacement = 9000 tankers / day = 1 tanker every 10 seconds.
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KevO
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:06 am |
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Joined: Tue May 24, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 2541
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MD wrote: Panic buying is fueling spot shortage problems Everyone needs to chill. In a couple weeks it will be mostly "business as usual" except for a few communities along the gulf coast.
Those that don't panic buy will be fuel-less.
go - now - run -hoard!
_________________ http://kevinollier.blogspot.com/
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Specop_007
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Post subject: Re: Gas Rationing. Now today Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:14 am |
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Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 6184
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Specop thinks he may need another case of ammo... Locked n loaded
_________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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BabyPeanut
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:15 am |
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Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 12:00 am Posts: 3504 Location: 39° 39' N 77° 77' W or thereabouts
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Do not run out and buy extra peanut butter, canned goods, etc.
Just be calm and sit there while I go to the store.
Thanks for your co-operation. 
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hotsacks
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Post subject: Re: Do not run out and buy extra gas! Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:19 am |
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Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 12:00 am Posts: 454
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Besides if we don't hoard it someone else will.[/quote]
I just had one of those "A HA" moments.Thanks.
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