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Has the oil market reached ‘peak bear’?

Has the oil market reached ‘peak bear’? thumbnail

Investor bets against the oil price are piling up at breakneck speed, the market is still buckling under the weight of excess supply for a third year in a row, but has bearish sentiment got out of hand? The price of a barrel of oil has dropped nearly 20 percent between January and June and […]

The “Peak Oil” Pig Returns With A New Shade Of Lipstick

The “Peak Oil” Pig Returns With A New Shade Of Lipstick thumbnail

Heritage pigs stand in a pen at the Stone Barns farm in Pocantico Hills, New York, U.S., on Friday, April 21, 2017. Photographer: Cole Wilson/Bloomberg Proponents of a new strain of the always-tiresome, never-correct “Peak Oil” theory have returned to the public discourse , this time with a new theory coming from the other side […]

Bankers warn global crash could arrive ‘with a vengeance’

Bankers warn global crash could arrive ‘with a vengeance’ thumbnail

A new financial crisis is brewing in the emerging economies and it could hit “with a vengeance”, an influential group of central bankers has warned. Emerging markets such as China are showing the same signs that their economies are overheating as the US and the UK demonstrated before the financial crisis of 2007-08, according to […]

What I’ve been reading to write Oil Apocalypse

What I’ve been reading to write Oil Apocalypse thumbnail

A brief bibliography for the new series: 1) Anything I could find on small ground-unit tactics, including parts of the US Army field manuals and after-action reports from Australian, US, and British ground troops going back to the 1950s. In a few cases, the reports had a few lines about what it felt like to […]

The Shale Revolution’s Staggering Impact


When new parents in Rio de Janeiro buy baby food in plastic containers, they are bringing home a little piece of the U.S. shale revolution. That boom in drilling has expanded the output of oil and gas in the U.S. more than 57% in the past decade, lowering prices for the primary ingredients Dow Chemical […]

The Greater Depression

The Greater Depression thumbnail

By Cognitive Dissonance Once or twice a month Mrs. Cog and I pack up the car and head to Winston-Salem, North Carolina. For us poor mountain folk, that’s the big city and the best destination when our need for certain items calls for visiting particular stores. Each trip down from the mountain elicits […]

Will oil prices head to $30 or $60?


Record oil stored in tankers. Market distortion by money managers. Surging production in Libya and Nigeria. A backlog of untapped oil wells in West Texas. The oil market’s bulls and bears both have a lot to chew on these days, as forecasters offer dueling narratives about what’s going on with crude prices. On one side, […]

Americans Are Back in Love With SUVs and Pickups

Americans Are Back in Love With SUVs and Pickups thumbnail

The car as we have known it appears to be doomed in the U.S. No, not because we’ll all be biking or taking buses or flying with jet packs or riding around in automated vehicles. Sure, a lot of people think that last one is coming soon. Technology analyst Horace Dediu is betting on bikes. And […]

Crude: Bottomless pit?

Crude: Bottomless pit? thumbnail

July crude oil futures go away today and it will be up to the August crude futures to find a bottom. As U.S. oil production is showing signs of faltering (up only 12,000 barrels in June as opposed to an expectation of 120,000 barrels) and seeing we are past the pain of many shale producers, […]

Why Oil Prices Are Plummeting


As a long-time investor in the energy sector, the current quarter has been one of the worst I can recall. It seemed like the market had turned the corner in 2016 when energy was the top-performing sector following two difficult years, but the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is now down 20% from this […]

Expect $30 Oil In 2018 Unless OPEC Deepens Cuts


Oil prices could plunge to US$30 a barrel in 2018 and maintain that low price for some two years, if OPEC fails to make steeper output cuts, Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of oil and gas consultancy FGE, said at a conference on Monday. The current OPEC cuts could be enough to keep the price of oil […]

Peak Oil Demand Is Millions Of Barrels Away


The notion that demand for crude oil will soon peak has largely replaced the idea from a decade ago that crude oil production was about to peak for geological reasons. This new idea is that we will no longer need oil (or at least a lot less of it) because consumers will choose alternatives to […]

Doughnut Economics:a step forward, but not far enough

Doughnut Economics:a step forward, but not far enough thumbnail

Doughnut Economics, by Kate Raworth (Chelsea Green, 2017) is an interesting book that goes in the right direction in the sense of promoting a circular economy, but it leaves you with the impression that it missed that extra step that would have lead it to define the goal in the right way. Bridging the gap […]

Robert Rapier: Global Oil Demand Hits New Record High

Robert Rapier: Global Oil Demand Hits New Record High thumbnail

Despite sensationalistic projections that oil demand could peak soon — which is one factor making the oil markets skittish — global demand growth for crude oil remains high. That’s been consistently shown by the International Energy Agency, and this week it was confirmed with the release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017. In […]

The Long-Term Price of Oil Is … $55 A Barrel


What’s the right way to think about the long-term price of oil? This question consumes the industry — and markets — no matter what prices are on any given day. Back in 2000, when mega-mergers formed giants like Exxon Mobil Corp., it was typical to plug roughly $20 a barrel into valuation models. Only a few […]

Expect the ‘longest economic expansion’ since WWII, says economist


Key Takeaways Kevin Thorpe, global chief economist at Cushman & Wakefield, thinks there’s little cause to worry about a recession in the next couple of years. Consumer confidence is high, and although the government is experiencing gridlock in Washington, D.C., Thorpe expects at least a few of President Trump’s financial policies to pass. There’s a […]

Michael Lynch: How Two Nobel Prize-Winning Economists Got Oil Wrong


My recent book details the numerous mistakes made by many experts—real and apparent—about the oil market and oil prices, and this post will point to two in particular (the latter of which did not appear in the book).  Robert Solow and Paul Krugman are both M.I.T. professors of economics (Krugman only for a time) and […]

We are on a collision course between the demands of rising populations and the ability of our food resources to sustain themselves – and nitrogen use is the fault line


Humanity is facing an unprecedented dilemma — how to feed a burgeoning population while resources decline and the ability of the Earth’s ecosystems and atmosphere to absorb pollution diminishes. A scientific breakthrough made a hundred years ago is at the heart of the problem. The Haber-Bosch process enabled the use of fossil energy to transform atmospheric […]

Peak Oil Demand: When Is It Really Coming?


Oil derricks at the Chevron Oil Field in Bakersfield, California on November 21, 2016. / AFP / Frederic J. BROWN (Photo credit FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images) There is a widely held belief that the peak of oil consumption will result from demand reduction rather than depletion. Published scenarios depicting how soon this might happen are […]

South Australia’s new ‘limits to growth’

South Australia’s new ‘limits to growth’ thumbnail

Readers over 60 years old will remember Limits to Growth – the 1972 publishing sensation written by Donella and Dennis Meadows from MIT and published by the Club of Rome. This book used the then new technology of computer modelling to produce a generalised update of Thomas Malthus’ 1798 work predicting that the world’s population […]

Global Oil Consumption Rate Grows


Global oil consumption grew above the 10-year average rate for a second consecutive year in 2016, rising by 1.6 percent, or 1.6 million barrels per day, BP’s latest Statistical Review of World Energy revealed. Strong increases in demand were seen from India (up 300,000 bpd) and Europe (up 300,000 bpd) and while demand from China […]

Gail Tverberg: Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil”

Gail Tverberg: Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed “Peak Oil” thumbnail

Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest rates. Similar people want to sell […]

Can we create a durable future?


It is hard to imagine anyone today building something as durable as the Roman Colosseum. Most of the damage we see to the 2,000 year-old stadium comes from two earthquakes and the persistent looting of its marble, stone and brass infrastructure by humans using them for other building projects. Were it not for these unfortunate […]

The Cultural Sickness That Needs To Be Named


  All over the world there is a feeling that something is deeply wrong. It is often felt more than seen, an unnamed darkness that keeps millions (even billions) of people disconnected from the reality of authentic life-affirming experience. Too many of our so-called leaders are asleep at the wheel — they talk about economic growth at […]

Gas prices lowest for time of year since ’05

Gas prices lowest for time of year since ’05 thumbnail

Looking for an excuse to pack up the car for a road trip this weekend? Look no further: The average nationwide gasoline price on Friday was the lowest for this point of the year since 2005, according to GasBuddy, a website and smartphone app designed to help drivers find the best deals at the pump. […]

Why Peak Oil Demand Is Still At Least 20 Years Away

Why Peak Oil Demand Is Still At Least 20 Years Away thumbnail

Tesla Inc TSLA 3.43% eclipsed General Motors Company GM 0.67% and Ford Motor Company F 0.27% to become the largest auto company in the world this year in terms of market valuation. Tesla shares are up an incredible 72.3 percent in 2017, while GM and Ford shares are down 1.5 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively. […]

U.S. Begins Importing Iraqi Oil


The United States has begun importing Iraqi oil at a rate of 1.1 million barrels per day to replace export cuts announced by Saudi Arabia late last month, new figures compiled by Bloomberg show. New data from the Department of Energy suggests that during the first week of June, Iraqi oil entered the U.S. at […]

The World’s Top Oil Consumers


No doubt when faced with the question “Who’s the biggest oil guzzler in the world?” one would immediately think about the U.S. or China. Or perhaps India. Few of us, however, would say Gibraltar. Yet on a per-capita basis, Gibraltar is the world’s top crude oil consumer, with an average daily consumption rate of 861,06 […]

Is $75 Oil Still Possible?

Is $75 Oil Still Possible? thumbnail

   More draws predicted for late 2017, 2018 The oil market rebalancing is in progress, even if it is slower than expected, according to releases by Societe Generale and RBC Capital Markets. When OPEC first agreed to cut production in November, analysts were hoping that six months of reduced production would be enough to rebalance […]

The World’s $100 Trillion Question: Why Is Inflation So Low?

The World’s $100 Trillion Question: Why Is Inflation So Low? thumbnail

Central bankers and investors are grappling with a $100 trillion question: why consumer price inflation remains so low in most parts of the world even as economic growth quickens. Compounding the riddle, question marks are now emerging over the one part of the global inflation picture that had been moving higher — producer prices. That’s […]

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