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Don’t Be Fooled, The U.S. Dollar Index Will Be A Lot Stronger A Year From Now

Don’t Be Fooled, The U.S. Dollar Index Will Be A Lot Stronger A Year From Now thumbnail

As many traders and investors know, the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) broke out in September 2014. At that time, the U.S. Dollar Index was trading around the $83.00 level. Today, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading around $96.90 per contract. Just so that new readers understand the U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the […]

What’s Wrong With Bernanke’s ‘Relationship Between Stocks And Oil Prices’

What’s Wrong With Bernanke’s ‘Relationship Between Stocks And Oil Prices’ thumbnail

Stock prices and oil prices have been moving in lock-step. Ben Bernanke published an article Friday explaining why. He says that lower economic activity is driving stocks and oil prices lower. His demand equation is flawed and his correlations are spurious. Supply drove oil prices lower and oil demand is expected to rise in 2016. […]

Oil driller cut 25000 jobs, paid CEO $18 million

Oil driller cut 25000 jobs, paid CEO $18 million thumbnail

2015 was a tough year for oil driller Schlumberger. Unless you were the CEO. CEO Paal Kibsgaard received total compensation worth $18.3 million in 2015, the company reported, down only slightly from $18.5 million the year before. The rest of Schlumberger didn’t fare so well. The company cut 25,000 jobs during the year, or 20% […]

Oil Industry Faces an Existential Crisis


The Saudis may go public, OPEC’s in disarray, the U.S. is suddenly a global exporter, and shale drillers are seeking lifelines from investors as banks abandon them. Welcome to oil’s new world order, full of stresses, strains and fractures. For leaders gathering in Houston next week at the IHS CERAWeek conference — often dubbed the […]

The Decline Of The Coal Industry Is “Long-Term” And “Irreversible”


Demand for thermal coal is declining, a trend that appears to be “irreversible.” That is the conclusion from Goldman Sachs, which published a new report on the global coal and gas trade on February 15, and reported on by SNL. For coal producers, this is the latest in a long line of grim warnings, all […]

The World Is Not Ending (Yet)

The World Is Not Ending (Yet) thumbnail

Market is exaggerating risk of US recession. Japan’s economy may have contracted in Q4. EU Summit is important even if not conclusive on Brexit and refugees. Investors have become unhinged.The increased volatility and dramatic market moves challenge even the most robust investment strategies. This sets off a chain reaction of money and risk management that […]

The Return Of Crisis

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Financial markets the world over are increasingly chaotic; either retreating or plunging. Our view remains that there’s a gigantic market crash in the coming future — one that has possibly started now. Our reason for expecting a market crash is simple: Bubbles always burst.  Bubbles arise when asset prices inflate above what underlying incomes can […]

We assume $40 crude out to 2020


Cullen/Frost Bankers Chairman and CEO Dick Evans said Monday his stress test model looks for a $28 per barrel bottom for oil, and a historically low level of $40 per barrel out to 2020. Energy loans make up for over 15 percent of Cullen/Frost’s total loan portfolio, and 9.8 percent of them are now considered […]

The world economy is shaky and ‘funny money’ won’t fix it

The world economy is shaky and ‘funny money’ won’t fix it thumbnail

So that was “jarring January”. Since the start of the year, over £4 trillion has been wiped off the value of global equities – that’s four, followed by 12 zeroes. US stocks endured a steeper first-week decline in 2016 than in any year since before the First World War. Market volatility drove the MSCI World Index […]

BP Profit Falls 91%


Adjusted profit drops year-on-year for six straight quarters Company’s net loss in 2015 is highest in at least 30 years BP Plc reported a 91 percent decline in fourth-quarter earnings after average crude oil prices dropped to the lowest in more than a decade. The company’s shares fell the most since August. Profit adjusted for […]

The Oil Crisis And How It Could Overshoot


The day we hit “peak oil” will be a definitive moment in the history of resources and energy consumption. Throughout our lifetime we have been warned of the implications of oil production hitting an absolute maximum; the consequence of which will be the terminal decline of global supply. M. King Hubbert, the author of the Peak Oil […]

Why Oil Prices Won’t Recover Anytime Soon


Peter Esho, Invast Securities chief market analyst, discusses the Fed’s decision to leave its benchmark rate unchanged and the outlook for oil prices. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat on “Trending Business.”

Oil skyrockets 23% in 48 hours, tops $32

Oil skyrockets 23% in 48 hours, tops $32 thumbnail

It’s been an absolutely insane few days for crude oil, the most closely-watched commodity on the planet. Oil prices spiked 9% — the biggest daily jump since August — to close at $32.19 a barrel on Friday. It represents a dramatic rebound from Wednesday. Crude crashed to $26.19 a barrel Wednesday, the lowest level since […]

Davos Participants Seek Out ‘Stardust’ Moments

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 At the World Economic Forum here, heads of state, billionaire investors and corporate chiefs meet to discuss the state of politics and regulation, and tackle the biggest challenges facing societies globally. This year, they are sending warning signals about the state of the markets. But ask some of the men and women at Davos whether the forum […]

What news is good news for oil in 2016?


Welcome to the first version of The Oil Big Five for 2016, when we round up some of the biggest news and trends from the global oil industry and think to ourselves: Wow, things sure have changed since our first post. But then, that’s oil for you: Things are always changing, and yet some things […]

Why the Oil Industry Should Kill Itself


Now that oil prices have settled into a long-term range of $30-50 per barrel (as described here a year ago), energy users everywhere are enjoying an annual income boost worth more than $2 trillion. The net result will almost certainly accelerate global growth, because the beneficiaries of this enormous income redistribution are mostly lower- and […]

Recession in Chinese Economy & Its Effect


China economy is the 2nd largest economy in the world; yes the discussion is about the world economy, not local Chinese economy, not Asian economy, but the global economy. When you talk about the global economy you have big players, take a look at the top ten players across the world. educba.com

Chevron Dodging tax-we agree

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Chevron Fined Millions for Tax Scheme Posted by Ashleigh Telford on October 23, 2015 Chevron has lost a landmark appeal in the Federal Court today and will have to pay over $250 million in back taxes and an estimated $60 million in fines. Paddy Crumlin, ITF President welcomed today’s decision and said Chevron needed to […]

The U.S. Is At The Center Of The Global Economic Meltdown


While the economic implosion progresses this year, there will be considerable misdirection and disinformation as to the true nature of what is taking place. As I have outlined in the past, the masses were so ill informed by the mainstream media during the Great Depression that most people had no idea they were actually in […]

Oil’s Financial Depletion


In a boom-and-bust business like oil, a company must be nimble to survive. Companies that grew quickly thanks to the shale boom are trying to weather the dramatic slide in oil prices with measures like scaling back production and laying off workers. But for many, sunk costs and high debt levels mean cutbacks are not […]

China, Oil Show Peril of Faulty Assumptions

China, Oil Show Peril of Faulty Assumptions thumbnail

National home prices never go down. Eurozone countries don’t default. Saudi Arabia won’t let the price of oil crash. China’s demand for raw materials is infinite. These are some of the most cherished assumptions of investors and policy makers in the past decade, assumptions that have underpinned trillions of dollars of investment and debt. The U.S. housing […]

The Woman Shaping Iran’s Oil Future

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At Monsoon, a bistro in Tehran that serves sushi, Szechwan beef, and Gouda and calamari on whole wheat toast, the fusion cuisine is an act of defiance. So are the women’s fashions—tight robes, exposed calves, headscarves that barely conceal blond and henna-colored hairstyles. The restaurant, with its rough concrete walls, red countertops, and statues of […]

Inside the Chinese Meltdown Rocking Wall Street

Inside the Chinese Meltdown Rocking Wall Street thumbnail

The Skinny on How This Monster Economy Is Losing Steam – and the Worldwide Fallout The Year of the Red Monkey, also known as the Fire Monkey, starts next month in China. According to Chinese astrologers, the year will be a real rollercoaster ride, filled with surprise and mischief. And, they say, it bodes well […]

Saudi Aramco: Bigger Oil, Bigger Trouble

Saudi Aramco: Bigger Oil, Bigger Trouble thumbnail

“Big oil” is really a misnomer. It may not be for long. The largest energy company that investors can easily own is Exxon Mobil. It is by most standards massive, having rivaled Apple for the global market-value crown before the latest commodity swoon. But its proven reserves of 25 billion oil-equivalent barrels pale in comparison with […]

Saudi Aramco IPO Prospect Reflects Kingdom Looking Beyond Oil

Saudi Aramco IPO Prospect Reflects Kingdom Looking Beyond Oil thumbnail

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest petroleum exporter, is staring into a future in which its most valuable asset — the oil under its sands — is shrinking in value. That is not only because the price of oil has been plummeting over the last year, but also because the climate-conscious world has a diminishing appetite […]

Appetite for mergers in energy sector drying up

Appetite for mergers in energy sector drying up thumbnail

Despite some planned mega-mergers, market uncertainty meant few companies were willing to join forces in last year’s weakened energy economy, analysis finds. An emailed report from consultant firm IHS found the value of merger and acquisitions in the oil and gas sector declined 22 percent last year to $143 billion. That’s despite the planned $85 […]

Saudis weigh IPO for Aramco


The deep plunge in oil prices has led to the prospect that Saudi Arabia might list shares in Saudi Aramco, the presently state-owned oil giant, that could make it the world’s most valuable public company. Muhammad bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince, tells The Economist that the idea of an initial public offering is […]

The energy sector changed forever in 2015


Two massive and permanent shifts in energy took place in 2015. The first was the beginning of the end of the oil age as Saudi Arabia’s led OPEC on a mission to destroy long-term competition and preserve market share. The second was the fortification of a move toward alternative energy as 196 nations agreed to […]

Could this be the year for oil takeovers?


Low oil prices could spur further mergers and acquisitions (M&A) across the oil and gas sector in 2016, analysts told CNBC. Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, Karri Vuori, head of M&A at Panmure Gordon said that alongside healthcare and advertising technology, oil and gas is one of the top sectors to watch in terms of […]

Oil’s prologue likely to be a harbinger of worse things to come

Oil’s prologue likely to be a harbinger of worse things to come thumbnail

In any assessment of the oil price crash, it is worth remembering Shakespeare’s aphorism: “What’s past is prologue”. In 2015, it appeared that the salient features of the US oil industry were: falling costs and rising productivity, which meant total output fell only gently from its April peak; continued investor support for capital raising (at […]

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