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Page added on July 12, 2014
The deteriorating economic outlook
The third and final estimate (until the annual GDP revisions) of first quarter 2014 real GDP growth released June 25 by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis was a 2.9% contraction in GDP growth, a 5.5 percentage point difference from the January forecast of 2.6% growth. Apparently, the first quarter contraction was dismissed by those speculating in equities as weather related, as stock averages rose with the bad news.
Stock market participants might be in for a second quarter surprise. The result of many years of changes made to the official inflation measures is a substantially understated inflation rate. John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) provides inflation estimates based on previous official methodology when the Consumer Price Index still represented the cost of a constant standard of living. The 1.26% inflation measure used to deflate first quarter nominal GDP is unrealistic, as Americans who make purchases are aware.
A reasonable correction to the understated deflator gives a much higher first quarter contraction. The two main causes of inflation’s understatement are the substitution principle introduced during the Clinton regime and the hedonic adjustments ongoing since the 1980s that redefine price rises as quality improvements. Correcting for excessive hedonic adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 5%. Correcting for hedonic and substitution adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 8.5%.
Realistic economic analysis is a rarity. The financial press echoes Wall Street, and Wall Street economists are paid to help sell financial instruments. Gloomy analysis is frowned upon. Even negative quarters are given a positive spin.
Years of understatement of inflation has resulted in years of overstatement of GDP growth. Thinking about the many years of misstatement, we realized that the typical computation in nominal terms of the ratio of debt to GDP is seriously misleading.
Consider that debt is issued in nominal terms and repaid in nominal terms (except for a few Treasury bonds with inflation adjustments). However, nominal wealth or nominal GDP overstates real economic strength. The debt is growing, but both the nominal and real values of the output of goods and services are not keeping up with the rise in debt.
To understand how risky the rise of debt is, nominal debt must be compared to real GDP. Spin masters might dismiss this computation as comparing apples to oranges, but such a charge constitutes denial that the ratio of nominal debt to nominal GDP understates the wealth dilution caused by the government’s ability to issue and repay debt in nominal dollars. We know that inflation favors debtors, because debts can be repaid in inflated dollars.
The graph below shows three different debt to GDP ratios. The bottom line is nominal debt to nominal GDP, the financial press ratio. The middle line is the ratio of nominal debt to the official measure of real GDP. The top line is the ratio of nominal GDP to Shadowstats’ corrected measure of real GDP that puts back in some of the inflation that is no longer included in official measures. The basis for this corrected measure is also 2000, but as the GDP number for 2000 is lower due to correction, this graph begins with the ratio at a slightly higher point.
The nominal debt to GDP ratio shows that as of the end of the first quarter of 2014 total US Treasury debt outstanding is 103 percent of US GDP.
The ratio of Treasury debt to official real GDP shows debt at 136% of GDP.
The ratio of debt to real GDP deflated with more a more realistic measure of inflation, one more in keeping with the experience of consumers, puts US public debt at 185% of GDP. In other words, the burden of US debt on the real economy is almost twice the burden that is normally perceived.
The Shadowstats adjustment we made to real GDP does not fully correct for what we believe has been a growing understatement of inflation since the 1980s. The adjustment we made corrects the implicit price deflator for a two-percentage point understatement of annual inflation due to hedonic distortion. Real GDP with this correction since 2000 looks like this:
We have calculated the ratios of US public debt to nominal GDP and to two measures of real GDP. The ratios of debt to GDP would be much higher if we used total credit outstanding, or total public and private debt, and if we used the government’s unfunded liabilities. The fact seems clear that debt is a major and unappreciated issue for the US economy. The enormous debt, especially with the middle class economy largely offshored, implies substantially lower living standards for the 99 percent.
The first quarter contraction, especially our corrected number, implies a second quarter negative real GDP. In other words, the years of Quantitative Easing (money printing) by the Federal Reserve has not resulted in economic recovery from the 2008 downturn and has not prevented further contraction.
Massive money creation and huge fiscal deficits have protected the balance sheets of “banks too big to fail” but have harmed the American people. Retirees and pension funds have been deprived for years of interest income as the Federal Reserve engineered zero or negative interest rates for the sake of a handful of oversized banks.
The extraordinary creation of new dollars diluted the dollars held by peoples, companies, institutions, and central banks throughout the world, raising fears that the dollar would lose exchange value and its role as world reserve currency.
Washington’s use of financial sanctions to force other countries to bend to Washington’s will is causing countries to leave the dollar payments system. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advisor has said that the dollar must be crashed as the only way to prevent US aggression. The Chinese have called for “de-Americanizing the world.”
The imperialistic US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which comes into full force July 1, 2015, imposes such heavy reporting costs on foreign financial institutions that these institutions might opt out of dollar transactions. All together, the result could be a serious tumble in the value of the US dollar, more wealth contraction, higher inflation via import prices, and less US wealth available to support US debt.
In view of this reality, why is Washington pushing its puppet in Kiev toward war with Russia? Why is Washington pushing NATO to spend more money and build more bases on which to deploy more troops in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, especially when Washington’s contribution will be the largest part of the cost? Why is Washington re-entering the Middle East conflict that Washington began by inciting Sunni and Shia against one another? Why is Washington constructing new naval and air bases from the Philippines to Vietnam in order to encircle China?
If Washington is this unaware of its budget constraints and its financial predicament, it cannot be long before Americans experience economic catastrophe.
43 Comments on "The deteriorating economic outlook"
penury on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 3:07 pm
The answer to the questions in the penultimate paragraph must be: empires do not die quietly. The spectre of lost power and influence haunts all leaders of failing regimes and all efforts are taken to preserve the status quo, but death comes to all things including empires. I am afraid that what we are witnessing are the spasms of a dying giant. And it will not be pretty.
JuanP on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 3:29 pm
I found this article interesting, and the author’s conclusion something most of us here agree on. I think spending so much money in the military industrial complex is one of our worst mistakes here in the USA.
I wish we would bring our troops home, close most foreign bases, and focus more on living within our means. It would be more productive and efficient.
bobinget on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 3:42 pm
Oh Juan, you libertarians are all the same. Look at all the employment, stock dividends created with a single 400 Billion Dollar fighter aircraft, the F 35.
Four days ago…
The Pentagon’s costly fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters is grounded, just a week before the military’s jet of the future was to have its coming-out party at two air shows in Great Britain.
The latest problem for the $400 billion program, which is already seven years behind schedule, came after an engine on one of the F-35s caught fire during a June 23 takeoff from Eglin Air Force Base in Florida.
The fire led the Pentagon to ground the entire fleet, and officials on Monday said it’s uncertain whether the jets will be cleared for takeoff by next week.
A decision on whether to allow the planes to fly will be made in the “next several days,” according to Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren, based on the aircraft’s “safety and airworthiness.”
The latest disruption could hardly come at a worse time for the F-35.
The Pentagon and contractors Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney had hoped to showcase the Marine Corps’s version of the jet, which takes off vertically and hovers like a helicopter, at the Royal International Air Tattoo in Gloucestershire, England, beginning on July 11.
Military leaders and contractors from around the world are set to take part in the air show and in the similar Farnborough International Airshow, beginning July 14, in Hampshire, England. The shows were supposed to boost confidence in the F-35, which has suffered from a string of mechanical problems that include faulty tires, in-flight oil leaks and malfunctioning helmets.
The Pentagon sees the jet as a critical part of the U.S. military going forward, and 10 countries, including the United States, have already placed orders to purchase the F-35. Lockheed Martin is the jet’s main contractor, while Pratt & Whitney manufactures its engine.
Read more: http://thehill.com/policy/defense/budget-appropriations/211520-f-35s-air-show-debut-in-jeopardy#ixzz37Hxigx28
Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook
=====================================
Gee, if Israel has F-35’s they could destroy every town in Gaza and be home in time for a good solid lunch.
J-Gav on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 3:42 pm
Penury and JuanP – Yes and … yes!
Minding your own business has never been a prominent trait of empires, has it?
And when international trade is carried out, doing business with a mind to cooperation and mutual benefit has never dominated either. More like dog eat dog.
Of course, the U.S. is hardly the 1st country to demonstrate these arrogant and often militarized tendencies (2 for me; maybe one (or 1/2) for you IF you do what we say ..). “Not pretty” can be the only outcome of such folly.
J-Gav on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 3:51 pm
On to the article now: Everywhere denial is rampant regarding economic reality. It’s all smoke and mirrors, statistical dodges and outright lies. Things are coming apart at the seams and the general populace is largely relegated to the role of blithely watching the train-wreck from the sidelines.
NB: I say “largely relegated” because it’s not the case for everyone, including a number of lucid people who contribute to this board. However small the difference created by individual or community efforts, I still say it’s better than nothing.
Arthur on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 4:14 pm
“Oh Juan, you libertarians are all the same. Look at all the employment, stock dividends created with a single 400 Billion Dollar fighter aircraft, the F 35.”
I have yet to figure out if bobinget or preston ‘china cut throat’ sturges is the most unapologetic imperialist over here. Yet at the same time they both are the staunchest defenders of the holocaust narrative (as part of the imperial repertoire, makes sense).
“In view of this reality, why is Washington pushing its puppet in Kiev toward war with Russia? Why is Washington pushing NATO to spend more money and build more bases on which to deploy more troops in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, especially when Washington’s contribution will be the largest part of the cost? Why is Washington re-entering the Middle East conflict that Washington began by inciting Sunni and Shia against one another? Why is Washington constructing new naval and air bases from the Philippines to Vietnam in order to encircle China?”
Answer is simple: because for more than hundred years the US are in the iron grip of the ‘Nulands’ of this world, using the cumulative competence of the largest number of Euro’s on this planet within a single taxfarm to make these Eurio’s bring them the world.
JuanP on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 4:20 pm
Bob, I don’t know what a libertarian is, but I suspect I’ d have a lot of disagreements with them, too!
I consider myself a minority of one as I tend to disagree on most things, with most people, most of the time. 😉
J-Gav on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 4:38 pm
JuanP – “A minority of one?” I don’t see you as being in that situation at all, but then I only know you through comments here. Where do you live, Miami? Hmm, that might help explain why you’d have that feeling.
To be honest though, even here in the Big French Metropolis, I very often have trouble connecting with people on what I consider to be the major issues of our times … Most just don’t want to recognize the obvious, n’est-ce pas?
Pops on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 5:07 pm
I posted some charts and conjecture inside:
http://peakoil.com/forums/global-liquidity-tendency-t69980.html
J-Gav on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 5:11 pm
You’re right Pops, Asia is not immune.
JuanP on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 5:21 pm
JG, c’est trop vrai!
Makati1 on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 9:21 pm
… “de-Americanizing the world.” …
The other 96% have seen the way to take down the US, and it is as easy as switching trade currencies away from the dollar. No military needed, just a change of currency. There are many meetings this summer to do just that. One is next Week in Brazil. When Germany sees that DC is killing their economy, they to will switch, taking the EU with them. And it cannot happen soon enough.
Northwest Resident on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 9:32 pm
“Correcting for hedonic and substitution adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 8.5%.”
The reason the U.S. Government won’t tell its citizens the truth about our economic situation is because they/we can’t handle the truth. If Obama or any president just walked to the podium and gave a speech outlining the harsh realities we are facing, the majority of Americans would not believe it. Accusations of lies, of political motives, of secret agendas and everything except rational discussion of the issues would be the most noticeable response. Too many of the ones who did believe the president would panic. The American people on the whole just want happy, feel-good news.
The actual truth is hardcore. Economic growth in real terms is a thing of the past. We have already exploited almost all of what nature bestowed us with. There isn’t much left to make a lousy buck on. Economic growth was always about resource extraction, exploitation and grotesque consumption. The cookie jar has a few crumbs left in it, but definitely not enough for any kind of economic growth.
And without economic growth, BAU dies. It is just that simple. Loans don’t get repaid. Credit is no longer issued. Factories and businesses shut down. We’re seeing all that in slow motion now, but it won’t belong before the trend really picks up a head of steam. Watch for it.
I’m a software developer. It used to be that I would get emails and calls from recruiters on almost a daily basis, looking to fill positions. No more. Last time a recruiter contacted me was a year ago. Reason why — there isn’t very much software development going on any more, not compared to what it used to be. A huge slowdown in software development can only mean one thing, and that is, BAU is grinding to a halt.
As far as American military build up goes, it is because the military and top political/elite know that serious danger is heading down the pipeline coming our way fast. For all the accusations and derision directed at the American military, there is one thing that I believe is true, and that is, America intends 100% to protect strategic assets (i.e., oil fields), and to help its friends and allies deal with the coming collapse to the best of its ability. Others can speculate that the American military is trying to start wars and take over the world — okay, you’re entitled to your opinion. But I don’t see it that way at all. Even after collapse, there will still be a need for international partnership, working on worthwhile endeavors together, holding the line against fanatics and chaos. I’m pretty sure that’s what the American military and its civilian bosses have in mind. Just my point of view.
DMyers on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 9:52 pm
If all these deceptions are cumulative, in terms of their interface with reality, then there has been a lot accumulated. The question: as accumulation continues, is there a critical mass? If our current economic indices are off by ten percent, for example, what proportion would set off the collapse? Will twenty percent do it? Would fifty five percent be enough?
I suspect we’ll find out, because I see divergence of economic data from reality going on for as long as it hasn’t yet hit the wall.
By the way, I think there is a fair question to be raised about the economic value of an f 35 fighter aircraft. It is either going to be destroyed (presumably while “fighting”), fly around consuming precious resources while accomplishing nothing, or destroy life and property. I frankly do not see any of these outcomes as adding economic value. What it amounts to is the equivalent of throwing good money after bad.
Dave Ranning on Sat, 12th Jul 2014 10:36 pm
Its all about resources and credit.
Things in short supply.
The rest is mental masterbation.
MSN Fanboy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 2:21 am
NorthWest:”holding the line against fanatics and chaos.”
………………… 😉 Good luck
Norm on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 6:19 am
The ex middle class is genetically deteriorated, too stupid to understand who and what let the air out of their tires, and where it went. Angry and drunk in their trailers, they blame it all on Obama. They can no longer afford a box of cheerios, too much inflation. but wow there is still plenty of money for their guns ammo and legalized pot.
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 7:17 am
Mak, you act like there is an alternative. You act like well if these other economies do this then things will be fine. Further Mak, you fail to see what these other economies are also participating in the same game the US is. Of course the US has the reserve currency but that is the only difference. This is why there will never be another reserve currency and that is because there will not be a global economy soon “TEOTWAWKI”. Mak, take your wonderful China and look at what is going on there with its hyper hypothecations of collateral, enormous credit creation, extend and pretend debt, and multiple bubbles. The rest of the brics are basket cases with their own set of problems. India and SA are off the charts of a disaster economy. Russia is in the best shape but it is practicing Chavez economics and will soon ruin its oil industry by sponsoring multiple geopolitical efforts. Putt, these things cost money Sir. The most the brics will do Mak is some moves away from the dollar around the fringes. The global FX system is in no shape for big moves at the moment or ever. From here on out it is descent. There really is no alternative anywhere in the global system. So it is “OK” to say this is bad and that is bad but it is wrong to think there is any kind of alternative that will change things for the better. Folks there is no “Better”. There is only honesty and like NR said the global world cannot handle the “TRUTH”. Mak, you cannot handle the truth!
This brings me to another point that Dmeyers brings up and that is critical mass of the accumulating deceptions. Folks this is a global phenomenon. It is going on across the board. Europe is a master at it. China has thrown out the mold with the kicking the can down the road. China has unserviceable debt from horrible mal-investment across their economy with a housing bubble, heavy industry overcapacity, highways to nowhere, and ghost cities. The point I am making is the US is not alone here. This board has a tendency to bash America because most of the stories are America critical. Back to Dmeyers and the critical mass of accumulated deceptions, we must now look at the markets and their likely corrections in a different light. “Markets” because there are many that are attached to one the global economy and “all” are manipulated and corrupt. The new normal means a 20% correction in the stock market today could be a fatal level with the accumulation of the deceptions this article goes over. If the market is that high but the real economy is that low then the disequilibrium and the resulting bifurcation could be a whooper. If confidence is the glue to liquidity when the truth does become unmistakable the panic will be ugly. The CB’s have no more tools in fact they are the purveyors of spirits. They are the ultimate suppliers of deceptions.
Makati1 on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 9:12 am
Dream on Davy, The Us days are numbered. No where else can possibly be worse than the future in the 52 states of Poverty.
As for my assertions:
“The Deteriorating Economic Outlook in America. Crisis of the Global Dollar Payments System?”
“UPDATE 1-France urges bigger euro role in international trade”
“French and German Companies Lead in Yuan Trade Usage, HSB”
“Global firms becoming keen on using yuan”
“More U.S. Companies Are Now Settling Trade With Yuan”
“Introduction Of Chinese SWIFT System Would Cause Swift Decline of USD As World’s Reserve Currency – Here’s Why”
“BRICS Bank, Ukraine likely to dominate 2014 BRICS Summit”
“The Almighty Dollar Is In Peril As The Global ‘De-Dollarization’ Trend Accelerates”
And on and on….
These are mostly US sources, and are only the last few days worth. You can google the titles if you want to read them. The world has found the US’ Achilles heel…
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 9:33 am
Great Makster, this will ensure the US transition sooner to a post global world and your beloved Brics and tird world latter. You live in a fantasy world of a new bric order. The big elephant in the room Mak is the food card naturally. US is the food capital of the world. It is the difference between me eating steak and you rice and coconut rations.
penury on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 9:49 am
Davy, I would like you to consider a few factoids. Yes the U.S. is the leader in food production, currently. American agriculture is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels, enormous expenditures on equipment, large agricultural entities such as Cargill, Monsanto. and large chemical companies. Consider what a lack of fossil fuels might do to the majority of American food production.
Arthur on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 10:44 am
Penury, there is enough domestic oil in the US to fuel the agrobusiness for decades to come. Not to drive 330m people to Walmart for decades though. But the last thing I would worry about is a famine in the US.
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 11:07 am
Pen, the US is not going to have FF’s to run its agriculture for global exports but it will still have some FF’s for domestic production as Art mentions. In addition with greatly reduced FF’s there is still significant airable land for non FF agriculture. Further, I imagine oil producers with be trading oil for food eventually. To bad Mak, the P’s will need all their coconut for domestic consumption due to population overshoot there so no oil for food for the P’s.
JuanP on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 11:38 am
A very small percentage of the oil consumed in the USA goes into food production,IIRC, it is 3% of the total used.
The government could very easily use the military to take over oil production and distribution in the USA. Most of the oil would go to the military, government, public transportation excluding planes, and a little to make enough food to keep everyone fed and prevent riots. As long as we are full and entertained, we will be fine. Panem et circenses, bread and circuses, not much has changed in that respect. The ongoing World Cup being a perfect circus example, just like the Olympics.
Going raft fishing in a few minutes. 😉
penury on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 11:56 am
I understand the point that the U.S. will have some domestic ff production to use for food production, However, what you need to consider is that the majority of the food production is controlled be major corporations. The great majority (almost 100 per cent) of the major food crops are produced using GMO seeds. These are non-savable, and are produced by single entities. Remember that if Monsanto goes out of business there will be no replacement seeds for corn,wheat or soybeans as other seeds are not allowed to be produced in the U.S. Yes the seeds are patented and may only be produced by the originators or patent holders. Currently farms are of an immense scale using very little human effort. Think about the distribution of vegetable crops, grown in Ca eaten in Pa or Ga how much energy is needed for this. Local production is a dream we do not have the time to scale up local production even if the desire existed. And as far as taking energy from the military and using it to keep the population fed, not going to happen. Watch the southern border and the way we handle 100,000 immigrents and you will start to realize what 100 million refuges would be like.
farmlad on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:07 pm
“A very small percentage of the oil consumed in the USA goes into food production,IIRC, it is 3% of the total used.”
depending on what all is figured in. I would guess 3% to be on the low side. But that is not figuring in all the freight, processing, packaging, cold storage, distribution, etc that is all a vital part to the food system that we are all used to. and then as was mentioned the consumer making the trip to walmart. with the cost of energy going up, the price of food that we are used too and even the food we are not as used to will keep taking more and more of our incomes.
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:20 pm
Pen, gmo percentage is not that high I assure you. The whole farm segment of the US nation will revert to 19 century farming relatively quick. This change over will leave little for export. Large food and oil companies will be canabalized and salvage in a collapsed economy. There is plenty of non gmo seed out there and plenty of other types of farming other than the mono cultures out there now. Animal husbandry will come on strong, human labor, animal labor, small farm plots, and risidual large AG in the descent. Too many data variable to crunch in a sure fire analysis but I can tell you food will be produced locally. We may see the end of exports which is a death rattle for the third world population overshoot. The US will depopulate also but much more will be seen in Asia and Africa.
bobinget on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:34 pm
It’s easy to blame ‘new’ religious based colonialism,
overpopulation, Climate insecurity, food scarcity, privacy issues…. If fossil fuels limits are in sight or just over a horizon— are these really the biggest questions facing mankind today?
Can YOU personally deal with each one of these difficulties one by one?
Do you worry about Small Pox? Polio? Rickets?
Doctors bleeding a person to cure Bubonic Plague?
FORTY MILLION people died in 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’
http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
Will Storm Troopers push six million Jews, gays, into ovens ever again?
Born a sexual minority? Have a gay relative?
Who would have guessed we could get a handle on equal marriage rights this quickly?
In Salem (another name for Jerusalem) in the name of GOD we murdered folks who questioned status quo.
Do you fear automatic knitting or sewing machines?
If you are reading this, even bashing science and technology you probably don’t fear computers.
(Still, Google Glass wearers are assholes -;)
Last night I watched “Gravity” on HBO. Blown away.
JuanP on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:39 pm
I was talking specifically about direct food production oil consumption, let’s call it oil used by farmers on the farm.
I am not a cornucopian, I say this in full understanding of the fact that food production, conservation, packaging, and distribution systems will have tochange radically over time. This will be a hard and long process no matter how you cut it.
JuanP on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:41 pm
Penury, if Monsanto filed for bankruptcy, the President would isuue a decreetake
JuanP on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 12:44 pm
Pen, Monsanto would be taken over by the US government in a heartbeat. They wouldn’t stop working for a day. Just like we saw happen in 2008 with other TBTF organizations.
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 1:04 pm
Juan, it is true martial, law, government, and security is around the corner. It amazes me we do not see more articals with details. You can be sure the military will efficiently manage a crisis. There will be triage and expendables. I imagine some NSA files will be openned and some elimination of undesirables. With a very effective and strong military the US will probably not descend into complete chaos like many locations. I would not want to be in East Asia and Africa. If Europe can avoid reverting to earlier excesses they will manage well as I suspect South America will.
penury on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 2:59 pm
Yes people in an emergency there may be martial law invoked. Let me see where do you think the military will deployed to protect the people? Detroit? Los Angeles? or The Hamptons, Conneticut, Wa D.C? Remember we are talking about a true emergency which will not be fixed in ninety days (or ninety years) You and I and people like us will be the ones whom are protected against our disappearence from the scene will not be a problem with the plan but a fixture of the plan and a necessary portion of the plan. Plan accordingly.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:02 pm
“The US will depopulate also but much more will be seen in Asia and Africa.”
Don’t forget about the ME countries with some of the fastest growing populations and already experience extreme unrest due to skyrocketing food prices and food shortages. They import a huge percent of their food — at least many of the ME countries do. No American wheat/grain exports to anywhere in the world means rampant starvation, riot and chaos.
But hey, just wait until everybody decides to screw America by dropping the dollar. That’ll show us who’s boss, right Makati1?
bobinget on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:28 pm
Plant’s identity revealed!
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Partly blaming unrest in the Middle East on President Barack Obama, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said Saturday that Obama has not spoken firmly and forcefully on Israel’s behalf and that the country no longer trusts it has the full support of the United States because of him.
The Republican governor’s remarks came as Israel targeted civilian institutions with suspected ties to the militant organization Hamas and declared it would step up its bombardment of northern Gaza. Israel says it is acting in self-defense against Hamas rockets.
Christie cited the violence sparked by the deaths of three Israeli teenagers and said organizations like Hamas that are engaged in such conflict with Israel “need to be dealt with, and dealt with firmly.” Obama has not done so during his presidency, Christie told reporters while attending a meeting of the National Governors Association.
“Israel is not sure that they have America’s full support like they used to,” Christie said. “And that’s a real failure of this presidency, in my view. And I think the unrest you see in the Middle East is caused in some measure — not completely, but in some measure — by the fact that this president has not acted in a decisive, consistent way.”
bobinget on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:31 pm
How Many Refugees would you guess in the world?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/20/global-refugee-figure-passes-50-million-unhcr-report
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 3:55 pm
bob, that is a butt pimple compared to what is coming
Makati1 on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 8:44 pm
Laugh at me all you want. Americans are good at laughing at others or killing them in the name of ‘democracy’. If you live inside the MSM Iron Curtain of the USSA, you cannot get a clear picture of the other 94%. The rose colored glasses and blinders keep out the real world. Those 2-3% of Americans who actually travel and live in other countries know better. Most will never go back to the States to live.
An addict never admits he/she is addicted until some tragic event makes it impossible to ignore. Few live through such and event and have the chance to change. That is how I see the US. Most Americans are addicted to their wasteful lifestyle. They are ‘exceptional’, ‘chosen’, ‘destined to lead the world’, and so full of Propaganda BS they cannot even think.
Dumbed down to levels that makes good workers, they are becoming docile sheep with wolves as their shepherds. They have no freedoms left. Just the history of same. They can be killed at their leader’s whim anywhere in the world without trial. Drones are starting to fly over their own cities, soon to be fitted with the same killing machines as those used in the ME. Tracked, recorded, layered with millions of laws they break daily, none are innocent.
A banking system that is nothing more than a pipeline to rob them blind, the rest of the world has turned against it and is taking it down.
Yes, the world has a painful future ahead. Chose now where you will live that future. I made my choice as the least painful and most likely to survive location on this planet.
Davy on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 9:33 pm
Mak, you chose a location that is the least likely to have high survivability due to overshoot with a population of 99MIL in an area of the equivalent to a large US state. Mak, you must be kidding. The P’s have the highest birth rate in Asia which means further population pressure.
Makati1 on Sun, 13th Jul 2014 10:43 pm
Hahaha, keep up your recorded rants. You have no idea of the conditions here or the options NOT available in the US. The actual population here is about 90 million, not 99. Yes, there are about 9-10 million scattered around the world but most of those will never make it back. Three million+ live in the US. Birth rate does not determine adulthood. After the SHTF, many new borns will not survive for long, nor the sick elderly. But, that is true everywhere.
When the SHTF, how many million Mexicans do you expect to keep out? ZERO? Your ‘Border Patrl” will last a day at best. BTW: Population of Mexico in 2013, ~120 million Mexicans. You already have over 11 million undocumented Mexicans living in the US already, according to ABC “NEWS”.
It is much, much more difficult to get into the Ps illegally. You get tracked from day one when you enter. If you get caught not renewing your visa, they either jail you and then deport you, or just deport you. Foreigners can only live here if you are on a retirement visa and/or, can prove you have a steady income over a certain amount. You also need a sponsor who is a Philippine citizen. The only freeloaders here are Filipino Citizens.
Arthur on Mon, 14th Jul 2014 2:16 am
Bobinget says: “Will Storm Troopers push six million Jews, gays, into ovens ever again?”
Don’t know about the US, but in Holland it is normal hygienic procedure to push people into the oven… Jews, gays, depressed, Dutch, you name it… once they are dead.
But I get bobinget’s point, we must fight holocaust deniers whereever we can: on the beaches, on the landing grounds, in the fields, in the bedroom and at Walmart (keep your airmiles card ready). Take for instance the holocaust deniers of the Red Cross, located in Bad Arolsen, Germany:
http://tinyurl.com/pbmu7xb
This is unacceptable, what have these people been smoking?
P.S.: fascinating, I see that Bad Arolsen is partner city of Davy’s Hermann, Missouri, small world!
Davy on Mon, 14th Jul 2014 6:54 am
Sorry Mak, your wrong, about your comparison of US/Mexico to the P’s. The US is a continent sized country. The P’s the size of a large US state. With the highest birth rate in Asia wow that will be bad in a short time if not already. What will happen to the social order in the P’s when their fast growing economy slows to a halt? I imagine lots of pissed off people. Mak, talking about old and sick dying off, well, you are in your 70’s. That is old in my book.
Davy on Mon, 14th Jul 2014 6:55 am
Yea, Art, small world!