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Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Move

Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Move thumbnail

We noted a month ago that the long-awaited Saudi Aramco IPO, scheduled for mid-2018, could be delayed to 2019, but now, according to The FT, Aramco is considering shelving plans for an IPO altogether in favor of a private share sale to the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds.

The FT notes that talks about a private sale to foreign governments – including China – and other investors have gathered pace in recent weeks, according to five people familiar with the IPO preparations, amid growing concerns about the feasibility of an international listing.

The Saudi state oil company has struggled to select a suitable international venue for its shares, as New York and London have vied for what has been billed as the largest ever flotation.

 

The company would still aim to list shares on the kingdom’s Tadawul exchange next year if they pursue the private sale, the people said.

 

The latest proposal by the company’s financial advisers was described by one of the people as a “face-saving” option for Saudi Aramco, which has worked on plans to list its shares internationally for more than a year.

Desk chatter included comments that the Saudis were anxious about the level of due diligence and transparency involved in a public offering.

A Saudi Aramco spokesperson said:

“A range of options, for the public listing of Saudi Aramco, continue to be held under active review. No decision has been made and the IPO process remains on track.”

The planned listing of a 5 per cent stake in Saudi Aramco is the centrepiece of an economic reform programme led by Saudi Arabia’s powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is keen for a 2018 IPO. He has said the company could be worth $2tn although a Financial Times analysis put the valuation figure at around $1tn.

An economic recession in the kingdom is piling pressure on the prince, the king’s son and next in line for the throne, amid calls for the government to increase investment and ease austerity. As we noted previously, there could be more at play here…

Some analysts view the possible IPO delay as a sign of the problems Aramco and the Saudi government currently face. A lack of transparency, issues with its oil and gas reserves, and the role of the Saudi government as the main stakeholder have all been suggested as the reason for this possible delay. Most of these suggestions, however, are based purely on issues surrounding the IPO itself. The true reason for this delay, however, likely hides among the intricate societal and economic problems in the Kingdom.

 

One obvious reason for a delay is the still-fledgling global oil price. A higher price setting—above $60 per barrel—would surely drive up the overall interest in the IPO. As long as OPEC and non-OPEC members, such as Russia, are still struggling to get a grip on the oil market, the potential for disaster looms. Needless to say, an oil price slump would have a detrimental effect on the expected revenues of the IPO.

The analysts, it seems, feel no need to look any further than this simple oil price explanation, but several other key factors should be addressed…

 

The impact of an influx of $1-2 trillion into the current Saudi economy is bound to have a significant impact. The implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 is broad and ambitiously planned. A full diversification of the economy is needed to guarantee work and salaries for future young Saudis, with the end of government subsidies or handouts.

 

A multitrillion investment scheme in a rather small local economy will likely result in total disorder, inflation and possibly ineffective investment schemes. The attractiveness of investing the total amount could lead to staggering inflation, higher costs and superfluous projects being realized.

 

A delay of such an influx of cash seems to be more and more attractive, giving the Saudi government and local industries more time to adjust and put in place the right steps for a sustainable and commercially attractive economic future.

We previously indicated that China could step in as a financial savior. With around 8.5 million bpd of crude oil imports, which is 2.5 million bdp more than in 2014, the attractiveness of having a stake in Saudi Aramco is huge. Even though an energy diversification program is in place, China’s imports from Saudi Arabia are going to increase. For Beijing, a stake in one of its main suppliers is a very attractive proposition. It will not only lock in Saudi crude oil and petroleum product exports to China but it will also provide some additional political and strategic clout in the heart of the Middle East.

There will, of course, be a few big bankers who will be upset as their billion dollar fee/commission just went up in smoke, but this may give MBS some breathing room – without the undue attention of an IPO –  as he deals with the nation’s economic slowdown. However, coming just a few days after the Saudi king’s trip to Moscow, the timing of this leaked information seems interesting at the least.

zerohedge



89 Comments on "Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Move"

  1. makati1 on Fri, 13th Oct 2017 11:43 pm 

    Boat, to steal their oil, what else?

  2. makati1 on Fri, 13th Oct 2017 11:59 pm 

    MM, “we all fall down..” But some have a lot farther to fall than others so the pain will be immensely more.

    The Ps use about two cups of oil per capita, per day. The US uses 20+ times that much. Who will feel the most pain? Hint: NOT the Ps.

    http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=91000

  3. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 12:07 am 

    Rockman and Madkat – The Oil Apocalypse is coming. Numerous sources have been presented and none have been refuted. And post peak oil I swear to god I will breed your daughters!

  4. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 12:16 am 

    But I know rockbrain and madkat to accept our global system could run out of gas and collapse in the near term is just unthinkable. To accept that truth would most likely destroy the existence of us all. Am I right?

  5. Cloggie on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 1:02 am 

    “NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2012)”

    Again these quotes from 2012. Meanwhile we are living in the post peak oil age, in anticipation of peak oil demand.

    Collapse of NASA and industrial society will indeed happen eventually, not because society is running out of oil but because the people able to carry that civilization are being replaced by those who can’t and who are not motivated. First of all in the US.

    #PeakWhite

  6. makati1 on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 1:09 am 

    MM, I hope the age of oil ends tomorrow. I don’t care. I will survive. You won’t.

  7. deadlykillerbeaz on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 1:37 am 

    A publicly traded Saudi Aramco IPO will have an options chain and will be shorted to oblivion. It will have a price 1/10th the IPO price in a short period of time. There will be no mercy.

    However, as a private equity and private investors buying the privately owned stock, it won’t be subjected to those market forces.
    The Saudi Aramco owners will end up babbling idiots as a publicly traded stock. They just aren’t that foolish.

    Whirling dervishes won’t spin as fast as their empty heads would.

    Time to start drinking again.

  8. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 6:34 am 

    “MM, I hope the age of oil ends tomorrow. I don’t care. I will survive. You won’t.”

    You are 75 mad kat and living in one of the most energy intensive places on earth Makati, Manila, P’s. These megaregion anywhere on the earth are the reason the earth is being sucked dry. Huge amounts of people living in a tight location require huge amounts of resources and living very complex lives. Even the poor are part of this complexity. There goods and waste must be handled. Don’t do your usual response like New York is worse. Sure it is worse but that does not take away from the fact Manila is bad and getting worse and you are in the worst part of Manila, the westernized part. Don’t tell me about the fantasy farm because you are never there and if you go it is unclear if you can even survive there long being 75 with no health care. I think MM has a better chance of surviving than you.

  9. Cloggie on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 6:49 am 

    You are 75 mad kat and living in one of the most energy intensive places on earth Makati, Manila, P’s. These megaregion anywhere on the earth are the reason the earth is being sucked dry.

    Are you sure?

    Cars per 1000 capita:

    USA – 797
    EU – 468
    Ps – 30

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita

    Ps do not need to burn a lot of ff for space heating, probably nothing at all.

    CO2 emissions ton per capita

    USA – 16
    China – 8
    EU – 7
    Ps – 1

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

    In reality the West, Japan, China and Russia are the big “suckers” of ff.

  10. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 7:00 am 

    There are 20MIL people cloggie in a very small space on an unstable Island facing Super Typhoons, earthquake, and volcanism. It is comparable to your little country and its horrible population densities. Just wait to a poorer world comes and you people try to manage with so many in such a small place. You are just as delusional as mad kat about populations.

    P’s
    http://tinyurl.com/yc8ehp9q

    Holland
    http://tinyurl.com/ycgmduvj

  11. joe on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 7:33 am 

    The ipo of Aramco was unbelievable 2 trillion is laughable since any investor knows that you are not buying a free market company but the nationalised assets of a repressive socialist religio-facist regime which provides al qeada with its ideological structure.
    Anyway probobly Aramco is worth even half a trillion and 5% of that Is maybe 5 billion, Apples market cap is over 600 billion. PetroChina was briefly worth over a trillion in 2007 but not now. Saudi Arabia could in theory be worth a trillion but in order to achieve that then all assests must be brought under a single umbrella and that includes all US owed investments, all refiners it owns and since the Saudi king technically owns Aramco then those assets will suddenly become very difficult to control if say 5% of Aramco is owned by say Jewish banks or bankers etc. It’s likely that the second option of using sovereign wealth funds as convenient cover for selling shares funded by bonds would hide the true owners of the shares. The last thing that the Arabs would want is Israel buying up Aramco on the open market. Arabs consider oil as a gift from God and many interpret that the ‘water’ miracle at Zamzam was really the gift of oil to the Arabs therefore they wont permit infidels to own the company that owns the oil.

  12. makati1 on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 7:43 am 

    Davy, you want to believe that I am some decrepit old man on his last legs. Dream on. You don’t believe me when I say I am very healthy, take no meds or need them and enjoy a healthy mind and lifestyle. My BMI is still under even the over weight limit and always has been. Rant on. I will probably outlive you and MM. Your stress is going to kill you. I have no stress since I left the US. NONE. I am enjoying life.

    You keep using numbers like they are some kind of weapon. Do you want me to list the negative numbers about the US? 70% over weight or obese, starting at age two. 40 million plus in the soup lines (food stamps). Suicides increasing. Murders increasing. Life expectancy declining. Drug use exploding. Infrastructure collapsing. Debts so high they can never be repaid. Education levels declining. Wars without end. Terrorist shootings increasing. And on and on.

  13. Cloggie on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 7:47 am 

    Just wait to a poorer world comes

    And when exactly will that “poorer world” come in your collapsenik mind?

  14. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 8:10 am 

    “And when exactly will that “poorer world” come in your collapsenik mind?”

    “When is that golden decade coming in your cornucopian fantasy future?”

  15. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 8:15 am 

    “You don’t believe me when I say I am very healthy, take no meds or need them and enjoy a healthy mind and lifestyle.”
    “Healthy mind and lifestyle” LOL, daily spreading hate and vengeance is healthy?
    I guarantee I am healthier and 20 years younger. I work out and don’t live within a polluted 20MIL megaregion of people exposed to all those pollutants.

    You keep using numbers like they are some kind of weapon.
    HYPOCRIT

  16. MASTERMIND on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 9:53 am 

    Madkat the us has been spoiled for over two generations. trust me if our future children cant have their cake and eat it. nobody on earth will. All I know is peak oil is past tense. And a smooth regression is hard to imagine…its not going to be pretty. if you want to ignore the limits to growth study. the nasa study, the royal society study. the financial systems study. and claim everything will be fine for you based on ‘faith’…that is fine…but the odds are not in your favor and deep down inside you know it…now go worship your dead dictator you say you love with 100 percent of your heart. you brainwashed pleb.

  17. Cloggie on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 10:55 am 

    “And when exactly will that “poorer world” come in your collapsenik mind?”

    “When is that golden decade coming in your cornucopian fantasy future?”

    That “golden decade” is already in full swing:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/germanys-booming-economy-paves-the-way-for-another-merkel-victory/

    http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/08/dutch-economic-growth-set-to-reach-3-3-this-year-says-cpb/

    https://www.rbinternational.com/eBusiness/01_template1/829189266947841370-829189148030934104-1253088910643844815-NA-2-EN.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/28/business/spain-europe-economy-recovery-unemployment.html

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/opinion/poland-economy-trump-russia.html

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/why-sweden-beats-most-other-countries-at-just-about-everything/

    That poorer world will be third world USA and has long begun as anybody knows who has frequented this board over the years.

    Europe is going to be #1 again, as it has been over the past 500 years, after the commie shit piles and mass murdering operations USSR and USA has bitten/will bite the dust, to the relief of the entire world.

  18. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 12:46 pm 

    Clog, did you actually read through those articles? Those results are lackluster and in no way the begging of a golden decade. We should also mention the EU has been engaged in huge QE for many months now and this may come to an end. There is nothing to crow about in the EU or the US. Sorry, your comment is a dud and solely for your Eurotard agenda of “We are the Champions”.

    “Draghi Doesn’t See “Bubbles” — Let Me Show You Some”
    http://tinyurl.com/ybhurm6u

    “The percentage of debt of major countries “bought” by the ECB: Germany, 17%, France 14%, Italy 12%, and Spain 16%. In all cases, in 2016 and 2015 the ECB was the largest buyer of said countries’ net emissions. Ask yourself a question: On the day the ECB stops buying, which of you would buy peripheral or European bonds at these prices? Clearly, the first sign of a bubble is the absence of demand in the secondary that offsets the impact of the ECB. It indicates that the current price is simply unacceptable in an open market, even if the recovery is confirmed, especially because rates do not even reflect a minimum real return, being below inflation.”

    “European Union high-yield bonds are trading at record-low yields despite the fact that cash generation and debt repayment capacity, according to Moody’s and Fitch, have not improved significantly. European largest stocks (Eurostoxx 50) trade at 20x PE and 8.3x EV/EBITDA despite eight years of flat earnings and downgrades, which have only just recently reversed.”

    “Infrastructure deals’ multiples have increased five-fold in three years to an astonishing average of 16-19x EBITDA. Excess liquidity in the euro zone already reaches 1.2 trillion euros. It has multiplied by almost seven since the “stimulus” program was launched. There is a problem in the huge amount of assets bought by the ECB, whose balance sheet already exceeds 25% of the European Union’s GDP. At the beginning of the repurchase program, it could be argued that risky assets, especially sovereign bonds, could have been cheap or under-valued because of the risk of break-up of the euro and overall negative sentiment. However, that statement cannot be made today, with bond yields at historic lows and debt levels at historic highs. Monetary policy is a perverse incentive to spend more and add more debt.”

  19. onlooker on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 3:03 pm 

    KSA is in the process of imploding expect more chaotic and conflicting events and news stories out of there

  20. Davy on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 3:58 pm 

    “The Spanish Civil War, Revisited: Pepe Escobar Fears “Lethal Response” From Madrid”
    http://tinyurl.com/yah7lkv5

    “The prospect of an implosion of this current Spanish state – with repercussions everywhere from the Basque country to Scotland – should be driving Europeans east and west to think hard about all the interconnections between city, territory, nation, state and (European) union; a healthy exercise in political economy thinking. Instead, once again, we have total Brussels paralysis. There’s no plan B. Worse; there’s no political will, as some Greens at the European Parliament have remarked. No wonder, with EU “leaders” as mediocre as the Juncker/Tusk bunch, and the number two of the EC, Dutch jurist Frans Timmermans, saying that “sometimes the rule of law must be preserved by a proportionate use of force.” Brussels, facing the prospect of a region that may leave in one go not only the EU but also the euro, is incapable to see that the Spanish fracture is a microcosm of the nation-state fracture inside the EU. The Juncker/Tusk unconditional support for nano-Franco cannot but be interpreted all across progressive European circles for what it is; what good could possibly emerge out of “mediation” by these non-entities? It’s civil society, in tandem, in Spain and Catalonia, that should be the mediators. One wonders if they’re up to the task.”

  21. rockman on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 4:02 pm 

    “…and since the Saudi king technically owns Aramco then those assets will suddenly become very difficult to control if say 5% of Aramco is owned by say Jewish banks or bankers etc.” One party owning 5% of any public company would have zero control of that company. A public company is controlled by its board of directors. And the board is elected by the shareholders. And a 95% owner will always win every vote. And that assumes the 5% owner even has voting rights. Sometimes shares are offered with the specific stipulation that they have no voting rights.

    This was always going to be a problem with determining the market value of Aramco stock. The IPO might have noted the stock would deliver a 6% dividend of the NET INCOME. First problem: the board, controlled by members elected by the 95% owner (the Saudi govt) can vote at anytime to pay no divided. Second problem: NET INCOME = gross income – (taxes + Aramco operating budget). The Saudi govt has already stipulated that Aramco will pay 50% of its gross income to it as taxes. Aramco is free to use the other half of its gross income to pay for its overhead (a number it can make up that can’t be challenged because no one has the authority to audit its books). It will also use its gross income to fund all of its capex projects. Bottom line: it would be very easy for Aramco to book its net income as $0 or very close to it. Such manipulations have been done by US companies which are monitored by the SEC.

    Remember when someone says Aramco is worth $X they are estimating what it might sell for in an open market. First, that’s a very ify number since no one knows what Aramco’s net income is TODAY. I also suspect that those huge estimates are not taking into account the fact that Aramco currently pays 85% of its incomes to the Saudi govt in taxes. Which would mean that those $1T and $2T estimates represent a pretax value of $6.6T to $13.3T. I doubt the most optimistic would make such a guesstimate. But again that would be a guess at what the sales price might be and not the MARKET CAP if it were a public company. Remember Aramco isn’t going to sell 5% of its oil. It’s only selling 5% of the stock of its new pubic company. That 5% owner isn’t being offered 5% of its reserves nor 5% of its revenue from those oil sales. No different then someone that owns 5% of ExxonMobil. Or Chesapeake.

    Its interesting to see a variety of statements by folks who are not familiar with even the very basics of how public companies are controlled and managed. Especially how minority owners have no say in how companies operate. The last job the Rockman had with a pubco a majority of the stock was controlled by a Wall Street raider. He saw he could make more money by filing bankruptcy, dissolving the company and using the right off to reduce his taxable bill of his other operations by $100 million. Of course the minority shareholders didn’t get the same benefit. His response to their complaints: simply told them to go f*ck themselves. LOL.

    BTW my current engineer/president was president of that company at the time. He refused to put the company into bankruptcy since we had come thru the rough patch and our future was looking good. His replacement didn’t have any problem putting the company into bankruptcy. LOL.

    That when he and I decided to finish our careers with a private company and avoid the pubcos.

  22. Boat on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 9:33 pm 

    Texas Shutters More Coal-Fired Plants

    Vistra Energy said on Friday that it would close two coal-fueled power plants in Central Texas, taking offline some 2,300 MW of nameplate power early next year.

    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Texas-Shutters-More-Coal-Fired-Plants.html

    B, b, b, another one bites the dust.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE

  23. Apneaman on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 9:56 pm 

    Boat, 2 whole coal fired power plants? Wow! Do you think it will help the humans with their little CO2 problem?

    Chinese firms to build 700 coal plants

    “These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, a Berlin-based environmental group. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, about a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries.

    Overall, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, said Urgewald, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 per cent.”

    http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinese-firms-to-build-700-coal-plants

    China is a mighty cancer indeed.

    Last man standing is what the humans are playing.

    We’re in the beginning of run away climate change right now. The main stream climate scientists don’t like to talk about it, but by 2020 you will here many say that CC is in runaway mode. CC is nonlinear, so buckle up kids.

  24. Shortend on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 10:41 pm 

    Clean coal will save the day! Really, just wash it a little before burning and its good for the ecology, plants feed on CO2…now all be humans need to do is also feed on CO2, along with our domesticated animal captives and we’ll get along just fine.
    Genetic Engineers are you working on this?

  25. Boat on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 10:42 pm 

    ape,

    I will find you links tomorrow but China coal consumption is dropping.

    The US has killed 1/2 of its coal mines. Coal used to be like 57 of electricity, now it’s down to 33 percent.

    proverb… if you set out to eat an elephant, take it one bite at a time.

  26. Boat on Sat, 14th Oct 2017 11:21 pm 

    China says coal consumption falls for third year

    https://phys.org/news/2017-02-china-coal-consumption-falls-year.html

    HOW MANY DIRTY COAL-BURNING
    PLANTS HAVE WE RETIRED SINCE 2010?

    DIRTY POWER PLANTS RETIRED, 262 down 261
    to go.

    http://content.sierraclub.org/coal/victories

    world coal production

    Global consumption dropped 1.7 percent last year compared with an average 1.9 percent yearly increase from 2005 to 2015, according to BP. China, which accounted for about half of the coal burned in the world, used 1.6 percent less of the fuel, compared with an average 3.7 percent annual expansion in the 11 preceding years.

    The developed worl

  27. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 5:27 am 

    If we humans did have a chance China is the ending that chance by constructing more coal plant. Funny how the Paris accord people love China because they signed on but still allow them this coal build out. That does not add up and the reason humans can’t address this predicament and others. The rest of the developed world is not doing much either mostly just window dressing. The whole CC issue is a slow surreal macabre comedy.

  28. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 6:07 am 

    “Significant Monsters: Climate Change Enhanced Wildfires Tear Widening Swath Through California”
    http://tinyurl.com/y9msf88l

    “Regardless of direct cause of ignition, the fires lit in vegetative growth that sprang up after an abnormally wet winter and spring. This growth has flash-dried over summer in a region that received 10-20 percent of its typical moisture allotment over that period. Northern California over recent years has experienced severe drought, extreme rains, and during summer of 2017 flash drying of new vegetative growth. This is a cycle of extremes consistent with human caused climate change. So as with the major hurricanes blowing up over the ocean this year we can definitely say that climate change has played a role in setting conditions that enabled this event to hit a much more fierce than usual intensity.”

  29. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 6:37 am 

    “Significant Monsters: Climate Change Enhanced Wildfires Tear Widening Swath Through California”
    http://tinyurl.com/y9msf88l

    This is where our fake green has cognitive issues:
    “Bad choices — primarily involved with continued policies promoting fossil fuel burning (#1), harmful agricultural practices (#2), and deforestation (#3) have brought us to this pass.

    Where our fake green is delusional is:
    “Failure to rapidly enable a renewable energy transition and to produce policies that promote less harmful consumption and more sustainable land use will result in an ever-increasing tempo of extreme events.”

    We can’t call fossil fuel burning, harmful agricultural practices, and deforestation a choice at this point. There are no options like the renewable transition trumpeted. This is a predicament not a problem to be solved. It is apparent that except for regional efforts renewables are not rapidly scalable. It is apparent that currently renewable scaling currently are just enhancing and contributing to growth.

  30. Shortend on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 6:44 am 

    Maybe KSA can set up a GoFund web account.
    I’ll donate so they can keep that black too flowing to my gas tank.
    By pass the Middle man…Uncle Donald Trump Sam!
    Too much…they must be redoing their audits,
    Something didn’t add up and some Peckerhead is making a stint about it.
    Always a party pooper in the bunch

  31. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 6:58 am 

    If fake greens wanted to be realistic and real green then they would follow the following policy. Keep in mind the following is woefully ineffective because it is only an abstractions of reality or an “ideal”. Not a happy “ideal” just an effective one. This is not the only possible route to dropping C02 it is just an example of the extreme actions needed. Forced mass death could also achieve the same result. If you think results can be achieved in a happy shiny way then you are insane and this is why society is completely delusional and insane with little hope. First we need to tell people how it should be but won’t be. The policies needed are beyond human cooperation and human nature. Human nature is so far into unreality of “cake and eat it” mentality with an underlying common denominator of catch 22 that there are no solutions other than extremely harsh natural ones both known and unknown. Here is a fantasy future of 2020.

    Draconian demand management must be initiated immediately. Emergency services and vital industry would be made renewable and fossil fuels used according to the need. You get no fossil fuels if you are not vital to society. Growth destroying policies must be made law with effective punitive controls. Population control efforts must be initiated on a global scale. This includes starving regions that do not cooperate. Poor attitudes and lifestyles must be eliminated. The digital revolution ended immediately keeping only what is vital. Most leisure that is high energy ended. This would include professional sports, mass air travel, and discretionary driving. Consumerism would be ended with a policy of rationing. People would be sent back to the land en masse with their own efforts at producing food in conjunction with a winding down of industrial agriculture. Martial law would be initiated in those areas where the local population does not cooperate. Development policies that have allowed poor choices like coastal development, fire prone area development, flood plain development, and over population per local support would be allowed to run their course as disasters destroy then. There would be no subsidized rebuilding. You are on your own in these places. Medical treatment would be greatly reduced. No exotic treatments. Colossal sprawling hospitals would be closed. Only a tightly regimented medical treatment of the basics would be allowed. This would be a triage effort. Child mortality and old age deaths would be allowed in their extreme cases. People in their last 6 months of life would be allowed to die. Children who are born with extreme conditions not saved. Education would change to only the basics with some specialization for those who are gifted. A new spirituality narrative of the wisdom of “no” and “less” would replace the current one of growth and individual choice. We would accept the pain, suffering, and decline of the above policies as our collective punishment for bad behavior.

    If you will notice I have not mentioned who would employ these policies because this is just fantasy anyway. What will not be fantasy is the way in which nature employs the same policies above overtly and covertly without any concern for fairness or human reason other than humans can die rich, poor, of any color, and any creed. This in effect is an adapted Orwellian version of the future accommodating overshoot and planetary destruction of the Anthropocene. This policy would definitely lower carbon and drop population if it could still maintain enough cohesion to limit the destructive aspects of degrowth and forced simplification. What I mean here is we need a degree of specialization to manage NUK poisons and dangers along with a myriad of others. It is unclear if we could even avoid collapse by taking such drastic actions. What is clear is fake green talk about a shiny happy affluent renewable transition saving us is a horrible joke on ourselves and why we are hardwired to fail.

  32. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 7:18 am 

    “Fresh warnings as Hurricane Ophelia heads to UK”
    http://tinyurl.com/y8nqh3ld

    “The Met Office has issued Northern Ireland with an amber weather warning as Hurricane Ophelia remains on course to hit Ireland and the UK on Monday. The warning, of “potential danger to life”, came as Ireland called a national emergency meeting. Ophelia, on its way from the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean, is currently blowing winds of 105mph (113km/h). The hurricane will be a storm when it hits the UK, exactly 30 years after the Great Storm of 1987 killed 18 people. It is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions to parts of Ireland and the UK – with winds of up to 70mph (113km/h).”

    “Ophelia set the record for the most eastern category three hurricane in the Atlantic. Category three hurricanes are defined as having wind speeds of between 111mph (179km/h) and 129mph (208km/h) and can cause major damage to well-built homes. Ophelia has since been downgraded to a category two hurricane by the US National Hurricane Center and is forecast to gradually weaken on Sunday.”

  33. Cloggie on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 7:34 am 

    Category 2. Bad news for a trailer park or two and a few road blocks because of a couple of trees falling over. There are btw very few trees in Eire, where never has happened anything since the last potatoe famine.

    Yawn.

  34. Davy on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 7:47 am 

    It is going to be a yawn when your widdle holland gets hit by one in the coming years and your finger is in your ass not a dike. LOL, yea you will be yawning alight. Typical cornucopian hubris in the extreme with a sprinkling of white racist pompousness.

  35. rockman on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 9:53 am 

    Boat – “The US has killed 1/2 of its coal mines.”. And yet just a few years ago the US produced more coal then ever before in history. And that includes the year during President Obama’s administration the country also exported more coal then ever before in history.

    Apparently those remaining 50% have picked up the slack. What to know how? Check out the productivity of western strip mining vs eastern subsurface mining. And they are doing much better in 2017:

    “The United States, China and India…have increased coal mining this year by 6 percent following 2016’s record global decline. Among the three countries, production through May is up by at least 121 million tons compared to the same period last year, according to data reviewed by The Associated Press. The change is most dramatic in the United States where production is up 19 percent within just the first five months of 2017, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.”

    And President Trump can’t even take credit for the huge surge in US coal production: none of his policies have yet to affect the industry.

    Yeah, in the US obviously King Coal is dead. If one considers the 45% annual rate of increase experienced during the first 5 months of this year a “death shudder”. LOL.

  36. rockman on Sun, 15th Oct 2017 10:36 am 

    And to balance shutting down the 2 Texas coal burning plants: “The proximity of prolific shale plays to major population centers has led to a construction boom in new natural gas fired plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates Texas will add 3.2 gigawatts of new natural gas capacity in the next three years, or enough to power more than 2 million homes.”

    So 2.3 gigawatts from burning one fossil fuel are being shut down and being replaced by 3.2 gigawatts from burning a different fossil fuel. Given the general high efficiency of Texas coal fired plants it sounds like a marginal improvement at best. And fortunately thanks to the world class development of wind power in Texas even more new NG fired plants would have been built. In fact those 2 coal fired operations might not have been shut down…at least until more NG fired plants were built. Overall hardly a trend to brag about. And you know how much Texans love to brag. LOL.

    And that will last only as long as NG prices stay close to near record lows.

  37. Anonymous on Mon, 16th Oct 2017 8:28 pm 

    I think the IPO is much more about social change and internal crown politics than it is about money, peak oil, etc.

    You are missing the lead if you concentrate on this as a peak oil or even business story. Instead look to Machiavelli.

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