Peak Oil is You

Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)

Page added on February 2, 2013

Bookmark and Share

Panorama 2013: Easing of oil price unlikely


With futures markets anticipating a price of Brent crude oil of $110/bbl this year, an easing to $90/bbl appears possible in three unlikely cases, according to Panorama 2013, an annual review by IFP Energy Nouvelles (IFPEN) of Paris:

• “A strongly deteriorated economic situation” with growth worse than projected by the International Monetary Fund in its base-case World Economic Outlook.

• Greater stability and less tension than prevail now in North Africa and the Middle East.

• Faster-than-forecast growth in US production of oil from shales and other low-permeability formations.

“Such scenarios, unlikely today, must not be excluded in principle,” wrote the Panorama 2013 author, Guy Maisonnier. “Surprises are a common occurrence in the oil market.”

IFPEN calls $110/bbl “an unstable balance threshold, changing according to geopolitical and financial vicissitudes.”

It identified Iran as a “sword of Damocles hanging over the market” as international concern over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program raises chances for military conflict.

In a report written in November, the industry-research group identified the general election in Israel last month as one of two events important to Iranian tensions, saying the outcome would determine the freedom to act by the Israeli prime minister. While Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent, held office in the election, he will have to form a ruling coalition after the political alliance through which he has governed lost support.

The other important event is an election in June that will determine the successor to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose outspoken hostility toward Israel has amplified worry about Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Oil Gas Journal

6 Comments on "Panorama 2013: Easing of oil price unlikely"

  1. Plantagenet on Sat, 2nd Feb 2013 1:58 am 

    Why does the upcoming election in Iran matter? After the last election the Mullahs suppressed the opposition, arrested its leaders and beat and shot dead its supporters when they demonstrated in the streets.

    Is anyone naive enough to think that the Mullahs are going to lose power in the next election, after all the blood they spilled to keep control in the last one?

  2. BillT on Sat, 2nd Feb 2013 4:52 am 

    If anything oil will go above $120 this year and maybe hit $150+ by Christmas. It will not go below $100 unless the SHTF and the world economy collapses.

  3. Kenz300 on Sat, 2nd Feb 2013 5:25 am 

    Every country needs to develop a plan to become more energy self sufficient.

    Diversify… don’t put all your eggs in the oil basket.

  4. Beery on Sat, 2nd Feb 2013 10:42 am 

    “Diversify… don’t put all your eggs in the oil basket.”

    Easy for those with an investment portfolio. What about the other 95% of the population whose eggs are de facto in the oil basket whether they like it or not?

  5. Arthur on Sat, 2nd Feb 2013 11:27 am 

    “Greater stability and less tension than prevail now in North Africa and the Middle East.”

    These French should stay away from the bottle. Syria could explode and then there is Iran, I mean the US with imperial appetite and a financial/fiscal time bomb ticking. If the economy stays depressed and no war in the Gulf erupts, I do not expect extreme oil price rises yet… that’s going to happen from 2015 (my best educated guess) when the world will start the descent from the oil plateau, albeit somewhat compensated by natural gas.

  6. Kenz300 on Sun, 3rd Feb 2013 5:14 pm 

    Diversify your energy choices…

    Buy a bicycle.. …plant a garden…..use mass transit…..

    Insulate your home…. buy energy efficient appliances..

    Choose LED light bulbs… save energy and save money

    Support energy conservations measures and choose an electric, flex-fuel, biofuel, CNG and LNG fueled vehicles next time you buy.

    We all use energy every day and can made choices to use less or to use alternatives to fossil fuels.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *