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Page added on August 11, 2017

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Jim Rogers says the ‘biggest crisis in his life’ is less than a year away

Business

Jim Rogers, the renowned co-founder of Quantum Fund believes that there’s an impending crisis, and it’s much sooner than you think. “We could see the worst crash in my entire life pretty soon,” said Jim Rogers in a recent conversation with Kitco news. Jim Rogers founded the Quantum Fund alongside George Soros, who is regarded as one of the most successful investors of all time. From 1970 to 1980, their portfolio returned 4200% while the S&P had posted paltry returns of about 47%.

Jim Rogers said, “We’ve had economic problems in the US, in North America, every four years since the beginning of the republic, to say that we’re going to have a problem is not unusual.” Going a step further, the veteran said that it would be ‘bizarre’ if we didn’t have a problem. Rogers observed that the 2008 financial crisis was caused due to a rise in debt, and since then the debt has gone through the roof. In fact, Alberto Gallo of Algebris Investments, in a recent blog, noted that global debt levels have almost quadrupled, rising 276% in the last decade to $217 trillion. Talking about the timeline, Jim Rogers predicts that the impending crisis could be as early as next year.

 

Jim Rogers, sometimes referred to as ‘Commodities Guru’, believes that gold prices are likely to skyrocket, in view of the impending meltdown. He observed that people have always turned to gold in the face of crisis and this time around it’s not going to be any different. In the same conversation he said, “Gold is going to be explosive in the next few years.” His belief in gold as a safe haven investment is shared by another renowned investor Marc Faber, who’s buying gold, to protect himself from the overheated equity markets in the United States.

 

Earlier last week, Marc Faber pointed out to huge disparity between the returns in gold and gold ETF index. In a recent interview with CNBC last month, Marc Faber said that while the S&P index is up 23% since January 2016, gold has returned 20% in the same period. In the same interview he pointed out that the GDX, the Gold ETF index, is up by 80% since January 2016, indicating that the markets are very distorted and investors are in a very artificial environment. The author of Gloom, Boom & Doom report had said that he has allocated only a quarter of his portfolio to equities, and that too, mainly in Asia. The remaining three-fourths of Marc Faber’s money is mainly divided between real estate, precious metal and gold shares.

Financial Express



12 Comments on "Jim Rogers says the ‘biggest crisis in his life’ is less than a year away"

  1. Cloggie on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 6:28 am 

    Jim Rogers is saying that for years now. Some day he will be right, like the proverbial broken clock is right twice a day.

  2. Davy on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 7:23 am 

    Jim Rogers is right in a way. We have been riding a wave crest for so long now people like clog thinks it is normal. Sooner or later reality will break through to rebalance things and it won’t be pretty.

  3. paultard on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 7:26 am 

    I have a very hard time arguing with true believers so I usually refer them to the longshore man. I think gold and bitcoin have no intrinsic value other than they are in limited supply. The goal of acquiring money is not to store them. Christ hated that.

    It is to remove oneself from the labor pool and one must also entice others to take your former job. Gold and bitcoin can’t do this.

    But if bitcoin is economically efficient to the us then we should own it. We can’t fend off russian invasion of we aren’t both militarily and economically strong

  4. paultard on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 7:34 am 

    How do you reign in human negative impulses. The us does this by encouraging positive rewards. If money turns you on then you got it. If it doesn’t then you don’t ha e it. Gold and bitcoin takes away this ability to moderate society. This is why the Phil’s have no other means except lead. Mak is accepting the proposition of lead me not astray but if I do make it quick.

  5. Sissyfuss on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 8:34 am 

    Paultard, you’re even crazier than your brother Bigtard and your second cousin Peaktard. Your family reunions must be something.

  6. bobinget on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 9:32 am 

    China, deep pocket behind Russian ‘invasion’
    of Venezuela.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-russia-oil-specialreport-idUSKBN1AR14U

    More China/Russia crude takeover news;

    Marianna Parraga and Alexandra Ulmer
    see link for additional words printed on your screen

    CARACAS/HOUSTON (Reuters) – Venezuela’s unraveling socialist government is increasingly turning to ally Russia for the cash and credit it needs to survive – and offering prized state-owned oil assets in return, sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

    As Caracas struggles to contain an economic meltdown and violent street protests, Moscow is using its position as Venezuela’s lender of last resort to gain more control over the OPEC nation’s crude reserves, the largest in the world.

    Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), has been secretly negotiating since at least early this year with Russia’s biggest state-owned oil company, Rosneft (ROSN.MM) – offering ownership interests in up to nine of Venezuela’s most productive petroleum projects, according to a top Venezuelan government official and two industry sources familiar with the talks.

    Moscow has substantial leverage in the negotiations: Cash from Russia and Rosneft has been crucial in helping the financially strapped government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro avoid a sovereign debt default or a political coup.

    Rosneft delivered Venezuela’s state-owned firm more than $1 billion in April alone in exchange for a promise of oil shipments later. On at least two occasions, the Venezuelan government has used Russian cash to avoid imminent defaults on payments to bondholders, a high-level PDVSA official told Reuters.

    Rosneft has also positioned itself as a middleman in sales of Venezuelan oil to customers worldwide. Much of it ends up at refineries in the United States – despite U.S. sanctions against Russia – because it is sold through intermediaries such as oil trading firms, according to internal PDVSA trade reports seen by Reuters and a source at the firm.

    PDVSA and the government of Venezuela did not respond to requests for comment.

    The Russian government declined to comment and referred questions to the foreign ministry and the ministries of finance and defense, which did not respond to questions from Reuters. Rosneft declined to comment.

    Russia’s growing control over Venezuelan crude gives it a stronger foothold in energy markets across the Americas. Rosneft now resells about 225,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan oil – about 13 percent of the nation’s total exports, according to the PDVSA trade reports. That’s about enough to satisfy the daily demand of a country the size of Peru.

    Venezuela gives Rosneft most of that oil as payment for billions of dollars in cash loans that Maduro’s government has already spent. His administration needs Russia’s money to finance everything from bond payments to imports of food and medicine amid severe national shortages.

    For a graphic detailing the decline of Venezuela’s oil industry, see: tmsnrt.rs/2fwsuCV

    Venezuela’s opposition lawmakers say Russia is behaving more like a predator than an ally.

    “Rosneft is definitely taking advantage of the situation,” said Elias Matta, vice president of the energy commission at Venezuela’s elected National Assembly. “They know this is a weak government; that it’s desperate for cash – and they’re sharks.”

    Matta echoed many others in the opposition-majority congress who have blasted corporate deals they say are underpinning Maduro’s efforts to establish a dictatorship.

    The Venezuelan government has said previously that Russia’s investment in its oil industry shows confidence in PDVSA’s financial stability and the nation’s business opportunities.

    Maduro’s administration has grown increasingly dependent on Moscow in the past two years as China has curtailed credit to Venezuela because of payment delays and the corruption and crime faced by Chinese firms operating there, according to Venezuelan debt analysts and two oil industry sources.

    Many multinational firms worldwide, meanwhile, have all but written off their Venezuelan operations amid the nation’s tanking economy and chronic shortages of raw materials.

    Rosneft is making the opposite play – using Venezuela’s hard times as a buying opportunity for oil assets with potentially high long-term value.

    “The Russians are catching Venezuela at rock bottom,” said one Western diplomat who has worked on issues involving Venezuela’s oil industry in recent years.

    As other companies shutter operations here, Rosneft has expanded to an additional floor of its office tower and added staff. The Russian firm has poached PDVSA professionals and brought in more Russian executives, two sources close to Rosneft told Reuters.

    The corporate expansion provides a striking contrast to the scene on the streets below these days, in the once-thriving business district of Caracas.

    As Rosneft staffers work in swanky offices alongside posters of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a bust of Hugo Chavez – the late Venezuelan leader and socialist icon – crowds of young men outside often throw rocks and Molotov cocktails in escalating protests of Chavez’ successor.

    Rosneft currently owns substantial portions of five major Venezuelan oil projects. The additional projects PDVSA is now offering the Russian firm include five in the Orinoco – Venezuela’s largest oil producing region – along with three in Maracaibo Lake, its second-largest and oldest producing area, and a shallow-water oil project in the Paria Gulf, the two industry sources told Reuters.

    In a separate proposal first reported by Reuters last month, Rosneft would swap its collateral on 49.9 percent of Citgo [PDVSAC.UL] – the Venezuelan owned, U.S.-based refiner – for stakes in three additional PDVSA oil fields, two natural gas fields and a lucrative fuel supply contract, according to two sources with knowledge of the negotiations.

    Under the proposal, Rosneft would also take increased management control over all the joint oil projects between the two firms.

    Rosneft secured the collateral late last year on a loan of $1.5 billion to PDVSA.

    The negotiations over a collateral swap are driven in part by a recent threat from U.S. President Donald Trump to sanction Venezuela’s oil sector as punishment for Maduro’s efforts to undermine the nation’s elected congress.

  7. bobinget on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 9:48 am 

    I’m going down to Venezuela this winter before
    hanging out at my condo in Nicaragua.
    My aim is to count the number of new Chinese products being sold.
    ONLY consumer goods, medicines, food stuffs are going to calm Venezuela’s working class.
    Only Chinese are able to supply this.

  8. Davy on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 10:31 am 

    bob, you sound like a carpet bagger. How green is taking a trip down to Nicaragua and Venezuela to hang out? I mean you are always telling us how green you are.

    “ONLY consumer goods, medicines, food stuffs are going to calm Venezuela’s working class. Only Chinese are able to supply this.”

    “Bob, last I looked consumer goods are multinational product not only Chinese.”

  9. MASTERMIND on Fri, 11th Aug 2017 1:07 pm 

    Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA
    http://imgur.com/a/hccu9

    New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history -IEA
    http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

    International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html

    UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
    http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/

    HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
    https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb

    UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html

    German Army (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes world oil shortages would collapse the world economy and world governments/democracies
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

    The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani

  10. Zoe George on Sat, 12th Aug 2017 4:01 am 

    ““The Russians are catching Venezuela at rock bottom,” said one Western diplomat”

    The Russians are “buying” real estate is the US’s back yard. Re-run of Cuban missile crisis here we come.

  11. Davy on Sat, 12th Aug 2017 5:02 am 

    “The Russians are “buying” real estate is the US’s back yard. Re-run of Cuban missile crisis here we come.”

    The Russians like the Chinese are buying a haircut. I was a finance guy for several years and one thing you learn right away is don’t throw good money after bad. Your first loss is generally your best. It is those guys who want their investment back that take the biggest hit. Those who get out early see the least pain. It is those who jump back in when the debt is pennies on the dollar that see the best return. Golf courses are a prime example. This is of course in general but through averages proves out. A sinking ship takes people down. Eventually this government will turn and when it does those who supported the past will be packing their bags. Venezuela likely has a western future.

  12. Cloggie on Sat, 12th Aug 2017 9:16 am 

    You want a big crisis?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVc1hvD6mCw

    Probably the largest pro-European American manifestation is decades, if not the largest.

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