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Is $100 Oil Coming Next?

Business

Benchmark global oil prices have increased roughly 19% year-to-date and 39% over the past year, hitting the highest levels since 2014.1 Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, has reached $80 a barrel (bbl) while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American benchmark, has passed $70/bbl.

A host of factors have caused the surge in oil prices. Positive economic factors have led to increased demand, and a multi-year overhang in the developed world’s petroleum stockpiles has recently been eliminated due, in part, to producer curtailments.

And in addition to strife in the Middle East–including the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact–the continued decline of Venezuela’s oil production heralds another trouble spot. Venezuela’s economy has entered into a protracted state of collapse and talk of fresh US sanctions is bubbling up.

Behind the scenes, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have finally succeeded in their 16-month campaign to clear the oversupply from the world oil market despite a major upsurge in US crude oil production. Somewhat ironically, the oversupply is a situation they helped create through increased production in 2015, a factor rarely discussed in the media. Saudi Arabia is still producing at higher levels than in 2014, despite reductions since 2016 tied to the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement.

OPEC also boosted its demand forecast for this year, while trimming its outlook for global oil production.

A Return to $100 Oil?

While there’s been speculation about the price of oil moving back up to $100/bbl, I find it unlikely on a sustainable basis, considering growing US production and exports, combined with OPEC’s ability to offset export losses from Venezuela and Iran.

We shouldn’t forget that it wasn’t too long ago that market pundits and some well-known Wall Street firms were predicting oil prices would remain no higher than $50/bbl through the end of the decade, a view we never shared.

Although one cannot rule out a short-term spike in oil prices, particularly given the influence of traders, a significant rise in oil prices will likely prove counter-productive for producers as additional non-OPEC production is incentivized and demand curtailed.

OPEC and non-OEPC producers will meet in June to assess market conditions and will likely discuss a tapering of production curtailments in order to maintain market balance now that global oil inventories have declined to the five-year average. To be sure, any reduction in Iranian exports could have an outsized impact on the oil market, which has become tighter amid higher demand and OPEC’s concerted effort to restrain production.

We have already seen some media outlets reporting that OPEC and Russia may be looking to boost production, largely to offset lost production from Venezuela and other struggling OPEC members, which should not be a surprise given inventories returning to five-year averages and the potential for further declines related to Iran sanctions. The news helped pull oil prices off their peaks heading into the Memorial Day weekend.

In addition, the latest weekly data on US oil rigs showed an increase, bringing the total rig count to 1,059, which also points to a further production rise.2 

Inventories declined counter-seasonally in the first quarter and are expected to see further reductions as refineries come back on-line from seasonal maintenance. In fact, one of the clearest signs that oil markets were over-supplied in 2014 were stable inventories at a time when they should have been drawing down, and this past quarter we witnessed the opposite trend–flat inventories when they should have been building, likely signaling supply shortages, which suggests additional production from OPEC and other producers is needed to maintain adequate inventories and avoid a spike in oil prices.

Impact of Iranian Sanctions on Supplies

There has been a bit of speculation about just how big an impact on the market renewed sanctions on Iran will be. From what we’ve seen, predictions range from a couple hundred thousand up to one million (mm) barrels per day. Although Iran may find other buyers for its crude and the sanctions don’t go into effect for 180 days, we already see anecdotes of shipping curtailments driven by insurance availability, which had a significant impact when sanctions were in effect previously.

So even if Iran finds willing buyers, transporting the oil may be problematic. In addition, though European countries are apparently committed to maintaining the nuclear accord, oil and gas companies domiciled in Europe or elsewhere that have assets or trading exposure with the United States are unlikely to risk running afoul of the US government for fear their actions could have a much more meaningful negative impact than any benefit they’d receive trading with Iran.

In our view, much of this hinges on how aggressive the United States chooses to be with respect to enforcing sanctions and providing disincentives for those willing to continue doing business with Iran.

In addition, the lack of investment in Iran that could accompany sanctions is worth noting. French major integrated producer Total3 already stated it will halt investment on the giant South Pars natural gas field and on onshore oil developments, which could impact Iran’s productive capacity longer term.

A Look at Global Supplies

Several large developments around the world are contributing to supply. These include operations in Kazakhstan, Brazil and the North Sea, although many are simply replacing production lost to mature field declines.

Natural field declines have historically been about 3-5% of global supply, which means the industry has to produce an additional 3-5 mm barrels of oil per day on top of 1-1.5 mm to meet incremental demand, a herculean task we think most industry observers don’t appreciate.

While newly developed fields, maintenance deferrals and technological advancements have allowed the industry to maintain adequate supplies, this may be set to change by next year when incremental supply from long-cycle projects is expected to be half of that realized in 2018.

Field depletion and decline rates are the silent factor that can lead to much tighter supplies than expected as they literally occur “below the surface” and producers are loath to admit they are facing declines. Meanwhile, fears of too much supply over the past three years likely exacerbated this effect through limited investment. We believe this will become more obvious by next year and potentially strain the ability of OPEC, the United States and other producers to keep global markets well supplied, which should be supportive of oil prices.

US Production Defying Skeptics

US production is important for a few reasons. The Permian Basin, which straddles parts of Texas and New Mexico, has experienced the biggest increase in drilling activity and production over the past 1-2 years. The ability of the United States to export oil has defied many skeptics and has recently been reaching record highs of more than 2.5 mm barrels/day.4 

However, the Permian Basin region is currently experiencing well-publicized bottlenecks in service capacity, largely due to a lack of labor availability, logistical issues such as shortages of sand used for fracking, and limited transportation capacity that is manifesting itself through higher sales price differentials that have reached as much as $15/bbl. As a result, some producers were recently receiving only $57/bbl for their oil rather than the $72 spot price, which makes a significant difference in cash-flow availability for reinvestment.

While these issues will likely be worked out over time, the region could face production limitations at the time when the rest of the world was expecting the United States to keep markets well supplied, an obvious risk when relying on a single basin.

US exporters are exporting as much as they can now, because they can fetch higher prices internationally considering the wide price gap between WTI crude versus Brent. The rise in exports has been spectacular.

As recently as a year ago, some oil-market pundits were suggesting that the United States could not export more than 1.6 mm bbls/day versus a recent high of more than 2.5 mm bbls/day and an average of 800,00 bbls/day in May 2017.5 And, more capacity is currently under construction. The fact that demand outside the United States exists for such a large increase in supply is impressive, signaling that world demand remains robust and that the above-mentioned decline rates may already have been more pronounced than expected.

Overall, this year’s price climb has completely upended analysts’ late-2017 and early 2018 predictions. I think this is important to mention, as oil price predictions have often tended to be wrong.

Why have they been so wrong? We think it’s likely a lack of understanding of global trends driving per-capita consumption, including population growth and burgeoning middle class combined with a lack of appreciation for decline rates in mature fields and the impact of investment curtailments. Half the world’s population consumes a fraction of what the developed world does, and while efficiency will likely limit consumption, it has a long way to go.

In our view, it’s likely what are viewed as demand destructors–such as electric vehicles–will be required in order to allow increased consumption by some at the expense of wealthier nations. And somewhat ironically, fears of demand destruction and the potential for lower prices are limiting investment, which we believe will be manifest in steeper decline curves and lower supply.

The Implications for Investors

While oil-price surges make for dramatic headlines, we think it’s important to emphasize that from an investment standpoint, higher oil prices are not necessarily required for all companies in the sector to perform well. Many possess the ability to grow strongly as long as prices are at a healthy level, and that’s where we are focused. It’s a common misunderstanding that an investment in energy companies is a bet on rising commodity prices. Of course, it helps and can pull value forward, but is not necessary.

Additionally, while many investors are focused on the bigger companies in the sector, we also have our eye on smaller companies which we think remain attractively valued and can grow more rapidly.

Today, it seems like oil companies have flipped from market dark horse to market darling–but we remain focused on companies that have potential to grow their earnings, even if oil prices remain near current levels. In addition, short-term periods of weakness can create buying opportunities in high quality companies, which our opportunistic strategy seeks to exploit.

To get insights from Franklin Templeton Investments delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Beyond Bulls & Bears blog.

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_US and on LinkedIn. 

The comments, opinions and analyses presented here are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

This information is intended for US residents only.

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

What Are the Risks?

Franklin Natural Resources Fund

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors or general market conditions. Investing in a fund concentrating in the natural resources sector involves special risks, including increased susceptibility to adverse economic and regulatory developments affecting the sector. Growth stock prices may fall dramatically if the company fails to meet projections of earnings or revenue; their prices may be more volatile than other securities, particularly over the short term. Smaller companies can be particularly sensitive to changes in economic conditions and have less certain growth prospects than larger, more established companies and can be volatile, especially over the short term. The fund may also invest in foreign companies, which involve special risks, including currency fluctuations and political uncertainty.

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50 Comments on "Is $100 Oil Coming Next?"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 1:35 pm 

    This is the future of automotive, if not the self-driving car. Who cares about $100 oil if you can drive in one of those:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/05/26/uniti-electric-car/

    New electric car from Sweden, the Uniti. To be bought online and brought to your doorstep (still by a human driver). On the market as of 2019/2020, first in India.

    Range: 300 km, weight 450 kg, charge to 80% in less than 15 minutes, 75 kW peak power, 0-80 kmh < 3.5 sec, battery 22 kWh, efficiency 20 km on 1.0 kWh. 2 passengers sitting behind each other. Price tag “under €19,900” or ~$23,400 USD.

  2. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:03 pm 

    Clogg

    Considering you can’t take an EV out of the city..they are useless to most people..And cars aren’t what power this world..Trucks, planes, ships, are..And you can’t use batteries because they are to heavy..you dumb neckbeard loser…

  3. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:10 pm 

    Feel-good video about autonomous driving, summing up all the advantages:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxFRVkMYWOE

    A single van takes up far less space than 6-9 sedans. Congestion problem is over. Driving per kilometer gets 4-10 times cheaper (from Toyota Starlet to Mercedes). You no longer need 1 billion vehicles globally, like now, but merely 50-100 million with correspondingly less embedded energy. All roads can be dual lanes only. Transport becomes available for more people, family budgets are relieved, less noise in the city, you can use travel time productively, like sleeping.lol

    Doomers are so 2010.

    And the Peak Oil Johnny-come-Lately “mastermind” is the dumbest of them all. Wants peak oil to happen so he can organize his marxist revolution, the pathetic loser.

  4. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:25 pm 

    Here is another Volkswagen concept “Cedric”, with functioning prototype:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/05/26/volkswagen-sedric-autonomous-concept/

  5. Davy on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:32 pm 

    “You no longer need 1 billion vehicles globally, like now, but merely 50-100 million with correspondingly less embedded energy.”

    Total nonsense when one looks at the picture holistically with behaviors and economics. Economic activity will plunge in such a scenario and with it economic health. This scenario has sweet spots for applications but in no way is it a solution that would drive vehicle stocks from 1BIL to 100MIL. More wishful thinking from the fantasy man.

  6. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:38 pm 

    Clogg

    Is your blog so fragile that you have to censor any comments on it? Next you fascist will be trying to burn books as well..Better control all the information..You dumb ignorant uneducated peckerwood.

  7. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:43 pm 

    Well, things could get very tight by the end of 2018 and early 2019, if my friends who actually pump this out of the ground are right.

  8. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:47 pm 

    Minimind keeps spewing the COMPLETE NONSENSE that you “can’t take an EV out of the city”.

    This might have had some merit in, say the early 80’s, but dude, it’s 2018. Try reading some instead of whining about doom for a change.

    There is a whole parade of 200 mile range EV’s on the way in the next few years, and Teslas all do that. Some Teslas already do 300 miles and more.

    With a lot of charging capacity being built, it’s getting easier to drive an EV across the US, much less “out of the city”.

    The more nonsense like that you post, the fewer people outside the “want to hear doom all the time, even fact free doom” who will listen to you.

  9. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:48 pm 

    The planet runs on diesel— most would have food shortages in 3 days without it.
    But, thankfully it doesn’t stop all at once– but the cards are already dealt.
    7.6 billion homo sapiens without oil?
    Please, lets not be insulting.

  10. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:49 pm 

    Minimind, instead of whining about your nonsense being censored, how about, for a change, actually writing something remotely having to do with objective reality?

  11. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:52 pm 

    Good old Davy just can’t imagine the world can possibly change. And yet just look at what electronics have done in the past 35 years.

    Is your mind so closed you can’t imagine people in cities with TONS of automated cabs not bothering with a car?

    Will they all eschew a car in the short run? Of course not? Will many? Well, look how many younger urban folks are already not even bothering to learn to drive.

    Is there data in your world?

  12. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:54 pm 

    Total nonsense when one looks at the picture holistically with behaviors and economics. Economic activity will plunge in such a scenario and with it economic health.

    The Daver just outed himself as the protector of BAU. For years he promoted the “Collapse is Immanent” message and now this: “we can’t have self-driving cars because in that case the economy would collapse”.

    You can’t make this stuff up.

    It IS true btw that the global car industry is indeed going to die, good riddance to them.

    You are fake green and a saboteur of the renewable energy society. Not that it matters, it’s going to happen anyway and in Europe first.

  13. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 26th May 2018 2:57 pm 

    In most of San Fransisco a car is a liability.
    Even Denver ownership is questionable.
    Red State ‘Merika? How would you get the beer and
    ice cream without the F350?

  14. Manila1 on Sat, 26th May 2018 3:14 pm 

    Difficult buying and maintaining a car on McDonalds, or worse, wages. Throw in college debt, iat moms, etc. Things have to change, and NOT for the better.

    Just waiting for the market to crash and never come back. Soon, I hope.

  15. Manila1 on Sat, 26th May 2018 3:15 pm 

    “…college debt, living at moms, etc….”

  16. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 3:50 pm 

    Is your blog so fragile that you have to censor any comments on it? Next you fascist will be trying to burn books as well..Better control all the information..You dumb ignorant uneducated peckerwood.

    My time is too precious to waste it on Marxist blowhards like you. Just like I do not let my front door open, so dogs can shit on my carpet, likewise I keep my comment section closed against serial bull shitters like you. I’m a broadcaster, not a receiver.

    Got it?

    Btw: how does a fascist burn a pdf? Inquiring minds like to know.

    The guy in the middle, that’s me:

    https://tinyurl.com/yajmk3px

  17. kanon on Sat, 26th May 2018 3:51 pm 

    In order to have any chance of dealing with climate change we will need for economic activity to plunge. The idea of “economic health” in the dying environment is a load of mind control BS. But, yes, these concept cars will not replace walking, bicycles, or transit. We can only hope for a collapse of the banking cartel and fossil fuel industry. In the meantime, denial does appear to work for a while.

  18. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 3:58 pm 

    Outcast_Searcher

    That 200 mile radius is based on southern California world weather..if you use an ev in the cold weather the usage drops to half or less..And the majority of Americans live in the Midwest and north east..Where we have something called winter. And only one third of americans own garages that can charge them..the majority of people who live in cities park on the street or in driveways..And we have already done scholarly studies that show how long a transition away from oil would take..this is called science..You uneducated energy illiterate idiot..You better go back to the message board and your denier echo chamber..where you can censor people like clogg does..How about you and clogg exchange numbers and you can have an old fashioned book burning baroque..Just like the Nazis loved to do.

    UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives
    (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

  19. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:00 pm 

    Clogg

    The truth fears no comments…You just know arguments would be refuted easily..So you have to censor it..Just like the Nazi’s who loved to burn books..You are smart enough to know when your beliefs are a glass house, you don’t throw stones..

  20. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:04 pm 

    Outcast

    You think there will be tons of automated cabs driving around the cities?

    BWwwHAHAHHAHAHAH!!

    the self driving car is still just an oxymoron..

  21. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:05 pm 

    Outcast..Your whole fucking world is going to get turned upside in the next decade..You will likely go insane and blow your brains out..Michael ruppert style..

    Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/03/23/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-an-oil-crisis/#509edc8b44cf

    According to the German Army leaked study. When the oil shortages hit, Wall street will crash, the public will lose all faith/trust in their institutions, and the global economy and world governments will collapse..
    http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf

    Scientific American: Apocalypse Soon: Has Civilization Passed the Environmental Point of No Return?
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/apocalypse-soon-has-civilization-passed-the-environmental-point-of-no-return/

    Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse (Ahmed, 2017)
    https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/the-new-economic-science-of-capitalisms-slow-burn-energy-collapse-d07344fab6be

    Peer Reviewed Study: Society Could Collapse In A Decade, Predicts Historian (Turchin, 2010)
    https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a

    NASA Peer Reviewed Study: Industrial Civilization is Headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2014)
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

    The Royal Society: Peer Reviewed Study, Now for the First Time A Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/

    Peer Reviewed Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research Shows We’re Nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
    https://www.scribd.com/document/379418787/Is-Global-Collapse-Imminent-An-Updated-Comparison-of-The-Limits-to-Growth-with-Historical-Data-Turner-2014

    Peer Reviewed Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
    http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf

  22. Davy on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:07 pm 

    “My time is too precious to waste it on Marxist blowhards like you. Just like I do not let my front door open, so dogs can shit on my carpet, likewise I keep my comment section closed against serial bull shitters like you.”

    Sure neder our serial bullshitter, so you go and do what you just described you don’t want to deal with. You come here and shit on our carpet. What a piece of shit. You have a blog go play you dirty games there scumbag.

  23. Davy on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:14 pm 

    “In order to have any chance of dealing with climate change we will need for economic activity to plunge.”

    Well yea, how many people do you want to die? You do realize there is correlation with economic activity and population. There are no longer painless trade offs. The banking cartel is not the primary problem kannon. They are a symptom. Humans are the problem. Blaming banks is not going anywhere. Sure they are not blameless but lynching a few bankers will not solve much. Whatever happens to the Wall Street protester movement anyway. I don’t even remember their name.

  24. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:26 pm 

    You come here and shit on our carpet. What a piece of shit. You have a blog go play you dirty games there scumbag.

    The Daver is angry again, impotent rage to be precise. You have a stake in peakoil.com that allows to to say “our carpet”? How come I’m not banned then? Has it perhaps something to do with the presidency of DJT and the changed political climate in the US?

  25. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:35 pm 

    Clogg

    Nobody is banned on this blog..Because closed minded fascist like you are not moderating it.. There is no changed political climate..The election was a farce and rigged by the rich..who cares though..I would rather Trump and the cons be in change when the oil crisis hits..Then we can send them all to the gallows..And when their blood runs in the streets. We can use their brooks brothers suites to clean it up..

  26. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:46 pm 

    .I would rather Trump and the cons be in change when the oil crisis hits..Then we can send them all to the gallows..And when their blood runs in the streets. We can use their brooks brothers suites to clean it up..

    That’s the spirit!

    Talking about a revolution, albeit from the right (sorry bout’ that), here thousands of UK deplorables protesting against the 13 month jail time of Tommy Robinson by the UK commissars, for the crime of shooting a video near a court building:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj5h_Two5GU

    Ales Jones predictably has an opinion too:

    https://www.infowars.com/revolution-uk-thousands-storm-10-downing-street-climb-gates-to-free-tommy-robinson/

    I have (unfortunately) not yet seen the storming of Downsysdromestreet 10, but maybe that’s still in the pipeline. Alex will keep us informed.

  27. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:50 pm 

    Here we go:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnFBVHQq4Fo

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSYm8sEvPCI

    Wonderful time to be alive.lol

  28. Davy on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:56 pm 

    “You have a stake in peakoil.com that allows to to say “our carpet”?”
    Come on neder, live by what you preach. Show others the same respect you want to be shown. Quit shitting on our carpet you serial bullshitter.

    “How come I’m not banned then?”
    With me here neutering your serial bullshit we don’t need to ban you.

  29. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 4:56 pm 

    Clogg

    Alex jones is a whack job..Another fat right wing dough boy..Who uses scaremongering and hate to get clicks from uneducated gullible religious fools..

    Alex Jones dons a clown mask and makes anti-gay comments while ranting about Rep. Eric Swalwell
    https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2018/05/23/alex-jones-dons-clown-mask-and-makes-anti-gay-comments-while-ranting-about-rep-eric-swalwell/220292

  30. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 5:05 pm 

    The last law of nature says: that any creature that despoils and outbreeds its natural habitat will be culled to bring its numbers under control and restore a stable environment.
    http://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/

    Paul Ehrlich: ‘Collapse of civilisation is a near certainty within decades’
    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/mar/22/collapse-civilisation-near-certain-decades-population-bomb-paul-ehrlich

  31. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 5:18 pm 

    Billionaire Bunkers: Exclusive Look Inside the World’s Largest Planned Doomsday Escape

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2015/06/12/billionaire-bunkers-exclusive-look-inside-the-worlds-largest-planned-doomsday-escape/#6111207d306f

  32. onlooker on Sat, 26th May 2018 7:12 pm 

    Yep, the people in the know ie. Billionaires and decision makers, know what is coming and are preparing. Too bad it probably will do them no good. Money will eventually be no more useful than toilet paper.

  33. Manila1 on Sat, 26th May 2018 7:26 pm 

    No one is banned on this blog because someone is making money off of the hits. If the discussion was limited o only peak oil topics, it would be dead. it’s ALL about $$$$.

  34. Manila1 on Sat, 26th May 2018 7:35 pm 

    “Suicide is now the 10th leading cause of death in the nation. The research presents an unprecedented view of the implosion of America. Judging by the trajectory and, of course, momentum, it is only a matter of time before the wave of death strikes the East Coast.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-26/mapping-tsunami-suicides-across-america

    3rd world America…

  35. twocats on Sat, 26th May 2018 8:32 pm 

    You know I wouldn’t give the billionaires and decision makers that much credit. they are also spending billions on age-fighting research.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-immortality-financiers-the-billionaires-who-want-to-live-forever

    they do the bunker thing because they are scared of zombies or lazy coloreds or something idiotic. I mean sure – they probably see environmental degradation and they’ve watched The Road. For them “bunker insurance” is cheap and makes them feel secure in a life filled with insecurity, even with – and partly because of – their billions

  36. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 8:56 pm 

    ICE agents are the Trump brown shirts..Do you know how much of a Nazi you have to be to pull a crying and frightened child, away from their own mother..And offer no reassurance and explanation to them..And then wake up the next day and go to work and do it all over again..

    I can’t wait till the oil starts to run out and we can send the status quo to the gallows and have our vengeance..

    Its coming…

    https://i.imgur.com/gZWVdF3.gif

  37. Anonymouse1 on Sat, 26th May 2018 9:06 pm 

    There is that never defined ‘we’, again that you keep referring to, in the oddest of contexts exceptionalturd. ‘We’ (whoever you think that is), won’t be banning anyone-ever.

    Though to be fair, if there is anyone deserving of it, you and your yid pal clogg-berg would be at the top of the list. Neither of you would be missed. And the endless spam from you and your mushmind sock would disappear instantly, as would all the other pointless crap you and cloggraham fling around. So,the only ‘neutering’ you will be doing, or ever have done, is to those poor goats you abuse and torment so casually. You know, there is a reason why you get urged to seek help for your (many) mental health issues, delusionalist. You should heed this advice.

  38. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 9:07 pm 

    The United States faces a sixty-per-cent chance of civil war over the next ten to fifteen years

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/is-america-headed-for-a-new-kind-of-civil-war

    Lets get this civil war started!

  39. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 9:36 pm 

    Anyoumouse

    I talk about peak oil all the time..I post endless science studies about it..Its the deniers who need to be banned..All they do is stalk this site and try to refute every single piece of evidence..And call people names..

  40. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 9:40 pm 

    If you want to get banned or censored..go to the forum..its almost nothing but peak oil deniers there..I was on there for two days and posted a ton of science studies and mainstream sources..And they banned me instantly..It was so absurd..that outcast searcher is a huge denier over there..and all they do is argue about that stupid hills group study..And they block you IP address so you cant even come back under a different email..Unless you are using a VPN..They shit bricks when Mastermind showed up and hit them with irrefutable science..LOL

  41. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 10:25 pm 

    Rapid shale oil supply likely to disappoint in coming years: oil industry veteran

    US oil production from shale and unconventional sources will grow in the future, but the rate will likely be less than most widely accepted sources currently predict, a well-respected industry veteran said.

    After more than 4 million b/d of oil production growth from 2010 to early 2015, US output growth “disappointed” in 2017 and will probably continue to do so near-term, Mark Papa, long-time CEO of big US shale producer EOG Resources and currently CEO of small-cap Centennial Resource Development, said in webcast remarks at the UBS 2018 Global Oil and Gas Conference in Austin, Texas.

    The reason: lack of geologic top-tier acreage, Papa, who left EOG at the end of 2013, said.

    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/rapid-shale-oil-supply-likely-to-disappoint-in-coming-years-oil-industry-veteran/

  42. Cloggie on Sat, 26th May 2018 10:25 pm 

    “The United States faces a sixty-per-cent chance of civil war over the next ten to fifteen years”

    If even the New Yorker says, after Paul Craig Roberts, Pat Buchanan, James Howard Kunstler, Alex Jones and my nothingness, that the US is destined to fall apart, it must happen. The idea to integrate the very diverse groups living on US territory is in conflict with historic experience, namely that multi-ethnic societies are not stable, everybody wants a “safe space”, because as even this black woman admits to Richard Spencer: “race is real”:

    https://youtu.be/w9146Nu4sxU

    Fortunately for white America, they have 640 million continental Europeans standing by to ensure that a serious insurrection will be supported from Europe, that’s precisely the reason why Trump is demanding that the Europeans should increase their defense spending… so they can intervene in North-America.

    “Lets get this civil war started!”

    Forum satan Millimind wants to get CW2 started because he hopes that under the leadership of his tribe, white America can be finally defeated and the US can be kept together and turned into a mongrellized version of the USSR:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/paul-krugman-white-americans-are-losing-their-country/

    Millimind wants to create Orwell’s Animal Farm, where white America will fullfill the role of obedient workhorse Boxer:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm

    European identitarians like myself want to bring European America “Heim ins Reich” (bring em home) as the Nazis called it, in a virtual sense of course, by staying in North-America, in a new and separate country, strongly tied to Europe.

    Upstate New York can be given to Millimind’s tribe, so they can turn it in an Open Air Museum for Applied Marxism, where the millimind’s of this world can continue to dominate obedient white guys like davy and boat and paultard, and make them write monthly reports about their “white privilege” and what they intend to do about it. It is going to be big fun.

    The backbone of the white race will be constituted, in no particular order, from left to right, by Amerikaner (of the Confederate flag waving variety), French, Germans and Russians. And although China is going to be the new #1, together the global European culture circle (“Eurosphere”), will be able to contain them.

    The map on top is what I want, the map below what millimind wants:

    https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2017/09/26/which-future-world/

    Pink = Judaic State = Orwell’s Oceania.

    May the best win. WW3 + CW2 will determine the outcome.

    The decisive question is: can white America motivate itself to revolt?

  43. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 10:45 pm 

    Clogg

    The old get old
    And the young get stronger
    May take a week
    And it may take longer
    They got the guns
    But we got the numbers
    Gonna win, yeah
    We’re takin’ over
    Come on!

    Yeah!

  44. MASTERMIND on Sat, 26th May 2018 10:48 pm 

    Clogg

    I don’t think there will really be a civil war..we don’t have enough time..and when the oil shortages hit..it will be game over for your elites! And to the gallows they will go! The status quo’s days are coming to a end…

    Storms coming..
    https://i.imgur.com/gZWVdF3.gif

  45. Cloggie on Sun, 27th May 2018 3:02 am 

    $100 oil won’t matter much to the UK as the UK car boss warns that Brexit will ruin his business:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5775771/Were-road-Car-mageddon-hard-Brexit-drive-industry-ruin.html

    Meanwhile, foreign policy clown Boris Johnson is roaming the Amazon Rain Forest in search for new trading partners, a necessity after Britain volunteered to leave the most lucrative trading bloc in the world:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/23/boris-johnson-south-america-tour-political-pageantry-and-self-parody

    You won’t get better proof than this that the British are deeply anti-white, although they themselves are among the whitest people on the planet, who get red as a lobster if exposed to 5 minutes of sunshine.

    Meanwhile the Scots (still 98% Scottish) keep pushing for independence from the UK (to reapply for membership of the EU):

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44237957

    Ah well, The Ango-Zionist problem is solving itself.

  46. Cloggie on Sun, 27th May 2018 3:03 am 

    I don’t think there will really be a civil war..we don’t have enough time

    You posted the link. Getting wet feet, are we?

  47. Davy on Sun, 27th May 2018 5:49 am 

    “The United States faces a sixty-per-cent chance of civil war over the next ten to fifteen years”
    Nonsense

    “that the US is destined to fall apart, it must happen. The idea to integrate the very diverse groups living on US territory is in conflict with historic experience, namely that multi-ethnic societies are not stable”:
    Nonsense

    “Fortunately for white America, they have 640 million continental Europeans standing by to ensure that a serious insurrection will be supported from Europe, that’s precisely the reason why Trump is demanding that the Europeans should increase their defense spending… so they can intervene in North-America.”
    Are you drinking tonight?

    “Lets get this civil war started!”

    “European identitarians like myself want to bring European America “Heim ins Reich” (bring em home) as the Nazis called it, in a virtual sense of course, by staying in North-America, in a new and separate country, strongly tied to Europe.”
    There you go showing your Nazi colors. So you are an identitarian, which is a fancy word for racist pig. There is nothing wrong with identifying with one’s race and culture but when it goes that step further then it is extremism. You are an extremist nedernazi.

    “Eurosphere”), will be able to contain them.”
    Eurosphere can’t take care of itself currently so how is it going to contain China?

  48. Davy on Sun, 27th May 2018 6:03 am 

    “Brazilian Military Deployed To Break Up Trucking Strike As State Of Emergency Worsens”
    https://tinyurl.com/yac9ulhx
    “A nationwide trucking strike in Brazil entered day six on Saturday, as blocked roads have prevented critical food and supplies from reaching their destinations. The protests, triggered by a 50% spike in fuel prices over the last year, have resulted in the declaration of a state of emergency across most major cities as shelves run bare and fuel supplies dwindle. Airports have reported running out of fuel, hospitals are running out of supplies, and public transport and trash collection have been reduced or halted across the country. Some food prices have also spiked as supplies dwindle. As we noted on Friday, a lack of livestock feed threatens a billion chickens and 20 million pigs who may starve to death. There’s a trucker strike in Brazil, and it’s impacting everything from air travel to chicken feed….Brazilian export group ABPA said that over 150 poultry and pork processing plants had indefinitely suspended production, while Brazil’s sugar industry – the world’s largest – is slowly halting cane harvest operations as their machines run out of fuel.”

    The Brazilian trucker strike is just a taste of what happens if trucks stop. In one week we see Brazil is a mess. If something like this would continue how many weeks before the reboot to normal is not possible? Tell me what Brazil will look like after another 3 weeks of truck stoppage. What is the magic number? Think about it in the northern hemisphere in winter. Then the numbers gets even worse. We have people here that are completely optimistic and constantly degrading doom maybe they should think again.

  49. Cloggie on Sun, 27th May 2018 6:07 am 

    There is nothing wrong with identifying with one’s race and culture but when it goes that step further then it is extremism. You are an extremist nedernazi.

    And it is up to you to define where the boundaries are, right? Demonizing is all you can.

    But if tshtf the meathead coward is running to 100% white Italy, not St. Louis-East, the despicable hypocrite that he is.

    I’m glad your country goes down the drain, the very country which represents the worst catastrophe in European history, no matter how often you shout your intellectually lite-weight analysis: “nonsense”.

    https://www.amazon.com/Suicide-Superpower-Will-America-Survive-ebook/dp/B004YD36HS/ref=sr_1_1

    https://www.amazon.com/Adios-America/dp/B00ZJJ3QLM/ref=sr_1_1

    https://www.amazon.com/Who-Are-We-Challenges-Americas/dp/0684870541/ref=sr_1_1

    Already booked your flight to Italy, into European safety, you loser? Poor “huddled” Davy, he has no country he can call his own. Always on the run, always on the move. The quint-essential cosmopolitan and globalist, unable to draw a line in the sand and say this is my country and these are my people. No, the Daver wants to buddy up with every biped on the planet. Because, you see, he is no Natzi, ooooh-nooo he isn’t. And he calls everybody a racist who does draw a line in the sand. Davy has the satisfaction he can call me a Natzi. I have the satisfaction that the notorious name-caller will be a refuge soon, forced to leave his home and country, fleeing CW2, in which of course he will not participate, some patriot. He will be too busy sewing a Canadian flag onto his silly MAGA hat in his hide-out in the Italian alps. Suits him fine.

    Idiot.

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