DantesPeak,
I hope you found the exerts useful and informative. My book is so new (i.e. this week) that it will likely take a few weeks or a month before reviews start appearing, but the 8 endorsements that I received based on the draft manuscript should provide a decent overview from a diverse set of authors.

BTW, I think this board is going to ask me to write an editorial, etc. (They seem to be quite interested in hearing more about my research)

Petrodollar, do you have an opinion on the Chinese unpegging the yuan?

I am essentially in agreement with the Thread being here (a), and (b), as long as there is active discussion about the theme of the book, I don't see it as hawking, per se.

But, a review copy should be sent to someone who can go through it and validate what's being said about it.

Thanks.

Doly,
I have been asked by the website administrator to write a 500 word editorial on the oil currency issues. In this essay, I'll address the Chinese currency move too, but in the meantime, below are some exerts from my book, as I have been anticipating a yuan re-valuation for quite some time....among other things as well.

I will note right now that as long as oil is still priced in dollars, China just lowered its oil importation bill by a few percentage points...but the real question is - how long will that dynamic last? and what is the "weighting" of the basket of currencies China has now adopted?... Regardless, China's move means that they are losing confidence in the stability and value of the dollar, and my guess is that the euro is moving into their pricing peg methodology (as was hinted in Jan 05' in Davos, Switzerland).
-William

(exerts from Petrodollar Warfare - Chapter 7)

China: Emerging Third Pole of Power

Something surprising is happening to China’s currency. Although not fully convertible, the renminbi, the ‘people’s money,’ is growing in use as a hard currency outside China — the first sign of its potential role as ‘Asia’s money.’ In Hong Kong and along China’s borders with Southeast Asia, an emerging renminbi zone can be traced, fuelled by burgeoning Chinese trade and tourism.

- “The Renminbi Zone,” Asia Times, 2003


In the last century, American people were pioneers of system and technology innovation. However, the interests of a few American financial monopolies now lead this country to war. This is such a tragedy for the American people.

- Wang Jian, Chinese bureaucrat, 2003


The US dollar is no longer … in our opinion (seen) as a stable currency, and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time. So the real issue is how to change the regime from a US dollar pegging ... to a more manageable reference, say Euros, yen, dollars — those kind of more diversified systems.

- Fan Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute, China Reform Foundation, quoted at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 26, 2005


(...here's a few more interesting tidbits...)

The rising geopolitical influence of China will be based upon its economic clout, but its increased demand for sources of hydrocarbons will not transpire without the potential for geopolitical tension with the US. In 2003 a Chinese bureaucrat, Wang Jian, portrayed a very disconcerting picture of impending geopolitical conflict as we enter the 21st century. His white paper advised China to prepare itself for what he foresaw as an inevitable war between the US and the EU — not between the US and China:

"Clouds of war are gathering. Right now, the most important things to do for China are:

1. Remain neutral between two military groups while insisting on an anti-war attitude.
2. Stock up in strategic (oil) reserves.
3. Get ready for a short supply of oil.
4. Strengthen armament power.
5. Speed up economic integration with Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan.

War is the extension of politics and politics is the extension of economic interests .... America’s wars abroad have always had a clear goal; however, such goals were never made obvious to the public. We need to see through the surface and reach the essence of the matters. In other words, we need to figure out what the fundamental economic interests of America are. Missing this point, we would be misled by American government’s shows and feints."

Wang’s argument suggesting this conflict is largely based on the structural imbalances endemic to the current US economy. He offered the following candid advice to Chinese policy-makers:

"While (the dollar) has been bringing to America economic prosperity and hegemonic power over money, it has its own inborn weakness. In order to sustain such prosperity and hegemonic power, America has to keep unilateral inflow of international capital to the American market .… If America loses its hegemonic power over money, its domestic consumption level will plunge 30-40%. Such an outcome would be devastating for the US economy. It could be more harmful to the economy than the Great Depression of 1929 to 1933."

Assuming that such a major US economic dislocation could occur, every effort should be undertaken to lesson geopolitical tensions that could develop between the US, EU, and China. In any event, the US economy’s structural imbalances justify a re-evaluation of fiscal/tax policies as well as foreign polices. Ultimately we will witness the emergence of a multi-polar world. These trends underline why US policy-makers must quickly begin realigning some longstanding foreign policies in an effort to rebuild its goodwill.

Fascinating excerpt....Thank you!!!

Your book would seem to make a fine companion to William Engdahl's A Century of War.

Seems like the Chinese realize that the US financial system is a house of cards. But let's not forget that it is the Chinese, at least up until today, that supported the dollar more than any other country. After today it is forever changes.

See my comments in the Current Events forum for more about the renminbi revaluation:


China Revalues Yuan

Dantes Peak,
I agree that the weighting of the dollar is the principle issue that I am interested in, as it could have a major impact. The Chinese may do a 33/33/33% split, dollar/euro/yen, but that's just a guess at the moment based on nuanced statements over the past year.

One note, it is the Japanese, not the Chinese, who have lent the most support to the US dollar (going back to Oct 1987 when the US stock exchange took a percipitious dive...). I think Japan is currently sitting on top of $800+ billion in US assets, T-bills and other dollar denominated assets, with China in 2nd place around $650 billion (these figures are from early 2005, and may have changed slightly this spring/summer. - total of $1.5+ Trillion...scary)

Anyhow, the Japanese basically sort of saved the dollar and provided a steady slide before and after the 2003 Iraq War, by doubling their holdings of US paper - but - in 2004 they "cried Uncle," and now Japan Inc simply does not have enough capital or risk tolerance to keep proping it up. China has stepped into the fray slightly, but as can be seen with yesterday's re-valuation, even they too can only withstand so much risk...

(I should note that the EU and even Canada has dumped much of their dollars..seems that Japan, the EU/ECB, BIS and IMF have all rendered rather scathing criticism for the GWB administration's "economic" & tax policies from 2002-2005. We can now add China to that list - albeit they are much more subtle by delinking/divorcing themselves from the yuan-dollar marriage.)

Well, I need to work on that 500 word editorial, but it likely takes 5,000 words to fully articulate the various movements re currency and energy issues...

I have bought the book, I'm only half-way through the text, but I can already make the following recommendation:

Buy this book!

I've spent the past year devouring every book on Peak Oil I can get my hands on and relentlessly plowing through the massive amounts of web information, but I find that I am learning something new on practically every page. This is the next "must read", covering a subject that has needed such a serious analysis. Kudos, William Clark.

As to the above quote, I didn't realize I wasn't properly logged in. I now take full responsibility for praising Mr. Clark's book.

wilburke,
Wow, thank you very much for the kind words regarding my book. It pleases me greatly that you have apparently "devoured" every book on Peak Oil that you can find, and yet, still found my humble book informative.

Naturally, I welcome comments and crtiques regarding Petrodollar Warfare, and thus I have a question for you: What particular information or chapter did you find most interesting? I'm quite curious.

Thanks again for the very kind remarks, and I hope you find the 2nd half of the book as interesting as the 1st half...

If I'm not mistaken, we are nearly ready for the editorial. Aaron, Admin, is this correct?

Enviro Eng,
Well, I attempted to write a 500 word essay, but unfortunately I am not gifted enough to condense my thesis that succintly (while including info regarding current events).

So, I took a 3,000 word essay I wrote at the beginning of Aug 05, and condensed it down to about 1,500 words. Is that length acceptable? Please advise, thanks!
-William

I think we can work with that.

Do me a favor and send them both (3K & 1.5K) in whatever format they're in to enviroengr@peakoil.com . I'll look them over and see what administration thinks. I can then let you know if adjustments are needed.

Also - Where's the best place to get a copy of your book?

Petro,

I think we're nearing the Ready mark with posting editorials. Haven't seen anything yet by way of email...

--- and, have book - will read. Thanks.