Menu
 News
 Search
 Topics
 Stories Archive
 Submit News
 Discussions
 Code of Conduct
 Forums
 Forum Search
 Last 24 Hours
 PO 24hrs
 Peak Blog
 Ask Jane
 Resources
 About Us
 Downloads
 Web Links
 PeakWiki
 PeakPortal
 Focus Search
 Peak TV
 Peak Oil Boston
 Houston Peak Oil
 Follow on Twitter
 Members
 User Panel
 Members List
 PO Team
 JOIN!
 Private Messages
 
Support PeakOil.com
Visit Our Advertisers
 
Light Sweet Crude Oil
 

Net App Training
Aaron





Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 38 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: The Ghost Fleet of Singapore
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 7:44 am 
Online
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6454
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
I've flown into and out of Singapore dozens of times and the sea just south of the island always looks like that from the air (when it isn't clouded over). As most of us here know, it's often the worlds busiest port and is constantly jammed with coastal freighters, tankers, and large ocean going container ships.

There's really nothing to see here.

Topics Merged by Eastbay

_________________
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:02 am 
Offline
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
User avatar

Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:00 am
Posts: 479
Location: Montreal Canada
timmac wrote:
This also shows us how much Americas over consumption as propped up lots of other countries, such as China and others,, for you American/capitalist haters on this site are sure up for rude awaking when we finally collapse, you might start jumping for joy but a minute later your country/job will be no more..


You sound like a US average guy for sure. You pretend that without USA , China, India, and so on wouldn't have an economy? What do you think that just you people in USA need a TV, a car, a washing machine, electric&electronic stuff, tehnology, and so on. Do you really believe that just you US americans are greedy ?
I think you're going to have a big surprise, and pretty soon.
USA is a drag for the rest of the world, not the engine. This is the reality that you US americans don't get it or want to face it. Sooner or later the rest of 6+ billion won't give you stuff for free anymore, for the simple reason that they need it too.
Everyone wants to live like a millionaire! Remember that.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 5:16 pm 
Offline
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 734
Location: Las Vegas
cipi604 wrote:
timmac wrote:
This also shows us how much Americas over consumption as propped up lots of other countries, such as China and others,, for you American/capitalist haters on this site are sure up for rude awaking when we finally collapse, you might start jumping for joy but a minute later your country/job will be no more..


You sound like a US average guy for sure. You pretend that without USA , China, India, and so on wouldn't have an economy? What do you think that just you people in USA need a TV, a car, a washing machine, electric&electronic stuff, tehnology, and so on. Do you really believe that just you US americans are greedy ?
I think you're going to have a big surprise, and pretty soon.
USA is a drag for the rest of the world, not the engine. This is the reality that you US americans don't get it or want to face it. Sooner or later the rest of 6+ billion won't give you stuff for free anymore, for the simple reason that they need it too.
Everyone wants to live like a millionaire! Remember that.



You can't take out the largest consumer of goods and oil without causing a financial tsunami through out the world, its not just a American thing, it would happen if it was any other large consuming country, in a way we all need each other, however every one needs the largest consumer, so how many people you think will still be employed in Canada if America was to shut down tomorrow ???.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:17 pm 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 2686
Image

As I suspected when I first saw this image, that pic is a screen cap from Google Earth, and as it turns out there is a freely available version of the overlay that shows the different ships, from a company that tracks nearly all commercial vessels worldwide via GPS. So I grabbed a copy and plugged it into Google Earth.

There are a couple different icons used in the overlay, and I've not been able to find details on what each specific one means, but I have found info that gives the basic explanation that green icons mean the ships are moving and red means they aren't. Some of the reds show a little anchor, others have a sort of 'circle divided in two at opposite points' icon, which kind of reminds me of the symbol one sees on some car dashboards that indicates your parking brake is set, so i'm guessing maybe it means 'parked' as opposed to merely 'waiting at anchor'.

ANYway... while obviously I didn't count, a rough guesstimate puts the percentage of commercial ships worldwide that are currently standing still (well, ok... the free version says there's 'up to' a 24-hour data lag) at probably around half if not more. And another interesting thing I noted was that I could not find a single moving mid-ocean vessel anywhere on the entire globe...

_________________
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:21 pm 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2005 12:00 am
Posts: 3333
Location: South of Atlanta
timmac,

How long do you think that game is going to work? Does it work if our Government defaults? Cant sell anymore debt? how about 30% Unemployment?
Things are going to change, They are going to change in a very big way and probably sooner than later.....

The status quo wont be the status quo once our Government of liars, fraudsters and the Oligarchy of banks collapses. Its coming, the math will win in the end.
The system of trade, economies, and the monetary system is on the brink of nothing short of disaster. I fear we have no more than a year and possibly as little as 6-8 months before things start to unravel. We cannot continue this massive inflation of the debt. At some point the lesser of the two evils is to cut the US loose, drop the dollar and run from the "Full faith and credit of the US Government". I dont understand why its so difficult for folks to see. The only difficult part is when.

Denninger's warning 15 Sep 09


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:45 pm 
Offline
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
User avatar

Joined: Wed May 30, 2007 12:00 am
Posts: 110
Quote:
You can't take out the largest consumer of goods and oil without causing a financial tsunami through out the world, its not just a American thing, it would happen if it was any other large consuming country, in a way we all need each other, however every one needs the largest consumer, so how many people you think will still be employed in Canada if America was to shut down tomorrow ???.


After the inevitable collapse, everyone will suffer through a major readjustment, but the countries that are producers will have an advantage over the consumer countries. At best, we will only be able to import the equivalent of what we export, so that's a big trade deficit that will be cut off to the US. That will of course mean a huge reduction in oil imports. We're in deep trouble!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:51 pm 
Offline
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 734
Location: Las Vegas
AirlinePilot,

If China was to cut and run they would also be hurting themselves as well, they also have lots of investments here, Japan, Dubai, Russia, etc, etc, all have large stakes here if they all cut and run it will further collapse our government and all there investments as well, China had around 40+ million layoffs in the last 12 months, yes they put many back to work temporary on government projects but those will only last a short while, than where will those 40+ million go ??..

If our economy goes belly up it will take out many economies around the world [Fact] that math also does not lie.

Yes China, Russia, Iran, etc etc has thought of ways of getting out of our $$ and into somthing new, However don't think they don't know the Heavy consciences of doing this.

Things don't look Hunky Dorey to me as well,, my post above was about what will happen if Americas economy goes further south, we are all into this together, its already a one world economy and when the big daddy falls it will be felt around the world.

[ I estimate that 1 billion+ will lose there jobs and thousands upon thousands of factories will close around the world if America goes belly up ]


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:56 pm 
Offline
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
User avatar

Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:00 am
Posts: 479
Location: Montreal Canada
timmac wrote:
You can't take out the largest consumer of goods and oil without causing a financial tsunami through out the world, its not just a American thing, it would happen if it was any other large consuming country, in a way we all need each other, however every one needs the largest consumer, so how many people you think will still be employed in Canada if America was to shut down tomorrow ???.


America as a continent will never shut down, and I wouldn't worry for a rich in resources country like Canada which has a REAL economy.

If you have a decoupling in 2 years or so (that means not tomorrow), you have enough time for a less than a tsunami. Finding new consumers is the easiest thing to do. What I am worried about is that USA will go to war, one way or another.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 10:16 pm 
Online
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6454
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
TWilliam wrote:
And another interesting thing I noted was that I could not find a single moving mid-ocean vessel anywhere on the entire globe...



TWilliam, I have no doubt whatsoever that this is true, but I wonder where they're all anchored or tied? A few here and a few there, maybe? Really, Singapore harbor and the nearby sea has been jam packed with sea-going cargo vessels for decades.

_________________
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 10:19 pm 
Offline
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 734
Location: Las Vegas
cipi604 wrote:
timmac wrote:
You can't take out the largest consumer of goods and oil without causing a financial tsunami through out the world, its not just a American thing, it would happen if it was any other large consuming country, in a way we all need each other, however every one needs the largest consumer, so how many people you think will still be employed in Canada if America was to shut down tomorrow ???.


America as a continent will never shut down, and I wouldn't worry for a rich in resources country like Canada which has a REAL economy.

If you have a decoupling in 2 years or so (that means not tomorrow), you have enough time for a less than a tsunami. Finding new consumers is the easiest thing to do. What I am worried about is that USA will go to war, one way or another.


Finding New Consumers, where ?... Don't say China, 1/3 or more of there jobs will be gone as well if America withers away in 2 years..

I am not bragging here because I am from America, its common sense economy problem when the big daddy falls.

[ Example : Take a town of 200,000 people, they have 4 factories that employ 35,000 people total, those factories shut down over a 1 year period, how many people in that town lost there jobs, Guess, its not 35,000, its more like 90,000 plus, each paycheck that is removed from that town will take out 2+ other workers plus city workers when tax revenue tanks, so when you take 40 percent unemployment in America thats a lot of paychecks that are not being spent on goods from China and elsewhere, and than the layoffs will be in the millions around the world when they shut down there factories as well ]


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 12:20 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 2686
eastbay wrote:
TWilliam wrote:
And another interesting thing I noted was that I could not find a single moving mid-ocean vessel anywhere on the entire globe...



TWilliam, I have no doubt whatsoever that this is true, but I wonder where they're all anchored or tied? A few here and a few there, maybe? Really, Singapore harbor and the nearby sea has been jam packed with sea-going cargo vessels for decades.

Well, after digging around a bit more I found that there are three different symbols used with the red (not moving) indicators, and the represent the ship as either 'waiting', 'anchoring' or 'moored'. I haven't found any details as to what each of these states means precisely with regard to whether or not a particular ship is presently under contract, but I will note that nearly all of the ships around Singapore show as 'moored' out in open water, and since being moored is defined as being tied up, either to a dock or a mooring buoy, I would venture a guess that this indicates ships not presently in service versus those that are 'waiting', presumably to either dock or head out to sea.

I'm seeing LOTS of 'moored' ships at major ports all around the globe; There's a buttload of them strung a good 200 nautical miles up the Yellow River in China, as well as pockets all along the China coast, lots in the Gulf of Mexico around Galveston/Houston, Port Neche and the Mississippi Delta regions, a bunch around Miami Beach, Florida, the Northeastern harbors, another huge collection around the Gates of Istanbul... literally everywhere there's portage there's at least some, often a significant cluster...

For anyone familiar with Google Earth and using overlays, I've attached the .kmz file for the ship tracking below (had to zip it as the forum wouldn't permit the .kmz extension). Have a look for yourselves; it's pretty astounding...

[ Oh and incidentally my earlier comment about not seeing any vessels on the open sea might have been in error. I think the AIS system which is used (not GPS) is land and ship-to-ship based, not satellite, so it may only function around the coastlines. Still, it's pretty interesting... ]


Attachments:
Vesseltracker_AIS_Preview.kmz.zip [719 Bytes]
Downloaded 5 times

_________________
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 12:47 am 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:00 am
Posts: 1221
Hey TW on the figure of half, we are in approximate agreement
The reason you can't find ships at sea on an open source is piracy.
It would be very interesting if the data you have extracted here is extended to tell how long ships have been idle for.
I would guess that a large percentage since late last year.
Another complicating factor is that ship maintenance facilities exist in these same areas.
I have 2 friends who are executives in major slips in SE Asia; They are busy as anything with set ups for offshore gas and oil. There is no time for the run of the mill maintenance stuff. The big money in shipping right now is in oil/gas exploration, not freght or maintenance.
Makes sense really.
Oily is right about some things.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:03 am 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 1083
cipi604 wrote:
timmac wrote:
You can't take out the largest consumer of goods and oil without causing a financial tsunami through out the world, its not just a American thing, it would happen if it was any other large consuming country, in a way we all need each other, however every one needs the largest consumer, so how many people you think will still be employed in Canada if America was to shut down tomorrow ???.


America as a continent will never shut down, and I wouldn't worry for a rich in resources country like Canada which has a REAL economy.

If you have a decoupling in 2 years or so (that means not tomorrow), you have enough time for a less than a tsunami. Finding new consumers is the easiest thing to do. What I am worried about is that USA will go to war, one way or another.



A REAL economy? What the hell? Resources are only valuable if you use them yourself or have a customer who wants them. Ask the forestry and automotive industry in Canada now for ex.
If the US were to go to hell even worse than it is now, it will affect most everybody. Even Canada. :?

(I'm Canadian too btw.)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:12 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:00 am
Posts: 1754
Location: Singapore
Good pics. Would be better to see some kind of before/after over time to do any meaningful comparison. See if the ships are generally moving or just staying put.

Possibly OT : it's a bit like money velocity. Doesn't do any good just sitting there, it's when it moves that all the interesting things happen.

_________________
Live quotes - oil/gold/silver


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession
New postPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:08 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 2686
SeaGypsy wrote:
Hey TW on the figure of half, we are in approximate agreement
The reason you can't find ships at sea on an open source is piracy.
It would be very interesting if the data you have extracted here is extended to tell how long ships have been idle for.
I would guess that a large percentage since late last year.

Hmmm yea I hadn't thought about the piracy angle, tho' as I said the AIS system is ground-based, so it could simply be a limited range issue.

As far as idle time, it doesn't seem as if that information is part of the Vesseltracker system, unless perhaps it's available for premium (i.e. business) subscribers. Their service appears to be primarily for businesses to keep track of cargo movements, like UPS' or FedEx's package tracking. I don't think un-contracted idle time of a particular ship would be of much interest in that regard.

Anyway, considering all the reports that were posted here some months back with regard to idle shipping, cargo containers stacking up everywhere, cargo sitting at ports etc., I'd say it's a good bet that you're right about 'since late last year'.

_________________
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 38 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
Atom News Feed   Forums RSS Feed