Peak Oil News >> Public Policy; Political and Legal News >> Peak Resource Supply & World Economic Crisis

...In an easily measurable timeframe of no more than 2 or 3 years from now, by 2011 or 2012, OECD decision makers will have to ‘bite the bullet’ and accept, firstly, that Energy Transition is a serious, real-world challenge to the survival of their economies and societies. Cheap Oil has totally disappeared already, and will never return. Other fossil energy resources are in catch-up phases of price growth, spilling over to the whole resource complex. Cheap food and agroresources have gone the same way as cheap energy, and any respite due to a ‘short sharp cut’ in global economic growth is relatively unlikely, and extreme high risk for any apprentice sorceror wanting to bring it on.The multiple implications of this are treated by myself and various contributors to my book ‘The Final Energy Crisis’ (Pluto Books 2005 and 2008, ISBN 0745320929). They range from the economy, transport, food supply and habitat through to cultural values and how society deals with a radically changing future.

Models for change away from fossil fuel burning exist, including the Kyoto Treaty and possible transition programmes based on the IMF framework for Special Drawing Rights, for member countries confronted by short-term financial and budget crisis. The SDRs, as we know, are based on a complex formula including the member country’s size, economic conditions, and previous performance. On a directly comparable base, « Oil Drawing Rights » and « Natural Gas Drawing Rights » could be set and allocated, with oil and later natural gas removed from conventional market trading, and national consumption rates decided by an international secretariat holding all the powers needed to carry out its functions. In brief, the basic need to reduce energy intensity will become, or has become clear and this will entrain the creation of many new enterprises and activities not concerned with supply, but with energy demand.

The objective would be to achieve large cuts in oil and natural gas intensity, measured in barrels/capita/year, and boe/capita/year, in a short period of time. The timeframe, in fact, is shrinking as we move into full Peak Oil, with Peak Gas coming fast behind. Outline targets for demand compression, depending on country and the depletion rates accepted by oil and gas producer countries, could be as high as 5% or 6% per year, perhaps more, and would apply on a long-term or in fact ‘permanent’ basis.