With oil bumping pushing past $120 a barrel, you can bet you could hear a pin drop in the room. But what exactly was he talking about? Iraqi Shi'a militias invading Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, burning their oil fields, driving the price of gasoline up to $10 a gallon and us into a depression? Crocker wouldn't elaborate on his vague warnings, preferring to leave it at a sense of dread.


There was a time when we could count on Saudi Arabia to make up a shortfall in oil when something like Iraq came up. During the Gulf war Saudi Arabia boosted its production by 3.1 million barrels a day to make up for the 5.1 million barrels a day of Kuwaiti and Iraqi production that was taken off markets. Oil prices rose relatively little.

Today, Saudi Arabia either refuses or can't increase its production. The peak oil Cassandras are convinced the Saudis can't. Saudi Arabia's mega fields like Ghawar are depleted, they say. And we'd better get used to gasoline at $4 a gallon and up.

But Crocker wasn't all bad news. He said that if we were to stabilize Iraq, and attract investors to the oil sector, Iraq could become the largest producer in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia. Crocker didn't put it in terms this baldly, but he might as well have said: We keep an army in Iraq, and we go back to the days of cheap oil. Anyone can afford to drive an SUV if they want one.