The cost of oil could pass the $300/barrel mark if there is a 15% shortfall in the supply of crude in the future - and most research suggests a much greater shortfall than that within 20 years. At a meeting this week of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Toronto-based transport consultant Richard Gilbert revealed that while oil consumption is expected to increase by about a third by 2025 to more than 40 billion barrels a year, production
will have fallen to less than 25 billion barrels a year.
Gilbert quoted two different sets of research, highlighting the impact of a shortfall in crude supply: one states that a 15% shortfall in supply will lead to a 550% hike in the cost of a barrel of crude (and that's based on the 2002 price of $50/barrel) and the other concludes that a 4% shortfall will result in a 177% increase.
In order to address the oil crisis to come, governments must start preparing now, with change underway by 2010, Gilbert said. For this to be achieved, governments should create transport redevelopment agencies to rethink how transport systems will operate as oil stocks run low and these agencies, and subsequent research into alternative fuels and transport methods, should be funded by diverting funds for roadbuilding and airport construction.
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The cost of oil could pass the $300/barrel mark if there is a 15% shortfall in the supply of crude in the future - and most research suggests a much greater shortfall than that within 20 years. At a meeting this week of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Toronto-based transport consultant Richard Gilbert revealed that while oil consumption is expected to increase by about a third by 2025 to more than 40 billion barrels a year, production
will have fallen to less than 25 billion barrels a year.
