Earlier this week, Joe Romm said he doesn't see peak oil radically changing U.S. culture, since hybrids and plug-in hybrids will reduce the fuel necessary to get around. Matt Yglesias, reacting to a recent Michael Klare piece, "Beyond the Age of Petroleum," agrees with Joe, saying, "even current gasoline prices are actually quite low as a share of household income by historical standards so even if plug-in technology doesn't materialize (which is hard to believe) we're not on the precipice of such never-before-seen apocalypse."

Atrios weighs in here and here (as do his commenters, with a cumulative 861 [!] comments), saying, "rising oil/gas prices, over time, might impact peoples' behavior in terms of what kind of car they use and how much they use it. ... But ... it's just hard to see how any realistic scenario leads to the kind of of economic and social Armageddon that some authors predict."


The presumption shared by Joe, Matt, and Duncan -- and even by John, in arguing against Matt -- is that cars are the central issue here. Can drivers handle a hike in gas prices? Well, if that's the question, then sure, they can -- gas prices have risen sharply in the last couple years and the economy hasn't so much as twitched. Gas prices will keep going up, but hybrids will increase in market share, plug-ins will come online, and all will be well, right?

Now, I'm no peak oil doomer (by the way, when you're talking with peak oil types, be sure to use the word "doomer" frequently -- they love it!), but it seems to me this is a slightly pinched perspective on the oil problem. Transportation represents 69% of our oil use; light vehicles are 61% of that; thus, what all these folks are discussing, personal vehicles, are about 40% of overall U.S. oil consumption.