The doomer model, strike now when the least expect it....the cornucopian model...technology/substitution will save us! My model, we will bumble along until theing gets really bad. All three countries have the power to destroy the other two with MAD so they have nothing to gain and everything to loose by starting a war. When one or more of the three are convinced things are so bad that MAD looks good we will be in real danger of MAD. Hopefully nobidy will be that irrational, but humans frequently choose war when other methods work better.

Interesting, that is precisely what the Russians think about the United States. They can't pull it off without some catalyst, however. Right now the US military is strong enough to counter any first strike and maintain control of resources for the future. Deplete the capability of the US military enough (and introduce Russians setbacks extreme enough to make them think about the distant future) and the gamble is a lot less of a gamble.

Insane in a non-peak world. Sane in a dwindling one.

The US can't afford the neo-cons for more than the reasons that are apparent now. The neo-cons believe in the myth of US excellence like a religion. They have made assumptions that leave out the necessary eternal vigilance.

Greed isn't the best priority after all. What a shame.

What strategy? We are on the defensive. We use so much oil every day that we are really vulnerable. We are like a heroin addict that stumbles along looking for another fix. I don't think we have any strategy beyond scoring another hit. Nobody is willing to slow down their oil use in the US, so we are doomed to continue our desperate military adventures trying to keep the whole thing going. How is that a strategy?

Bombing China's cities will have an impact on American economy. States are weak, and major corporations rather see destruction of their factory bases during nuclear conflict.

Rebuilding America's Defenses
http://www.newamericancentury.org/Rebui ... fenses.pdf

Between global warming, post peak oil, polar reversal, the gathering war clouds, and pandemics exacerbated by failing civilization (did I leave anything out?)... how can we insure that the future remnents of humanity will have a record of what happened and get a heads-up to prevent stupidity from being the norm ever again?

Ah yes,
Once again, sick fuck day at PO.com. Preemptive nuclear annihilation of China in order to keep the mideast oil, why didn't the neocons think of that? Well, probably because the Chinese won't let it happen. Long before the US has moved its ICBM's to conveniently located bases say in Japan or Taiwan, they will have gone to war.

Who do you think got the first real contract to buy Iraq's oil? Check it out. China. We were just the repo man that got it for them. We can't do anything without their say so. They own all our debt. We owe them. They call the shots now. We are just their little junkie. Do you think we can bomb them? That costs money. Do we have any? I don't think so.

Incarnation of absurd.
But it can be rational, assure China to take a fair share as a provision for sponsoring US debt

wow..., use nukes on china. what a maniac. u make the neocons look good. talk about nazis. i don't believe are so-called "shield" would really protect us from incoming anything.

plus, this country doesn't make anything anymore except microsoft windows. we have a service economy. We import comsumer electronics from japan and china.

I think War between Russia/China/US is the last option for any country. Proxy Wars? Thats different. But full all out War between any of the 3 isnt realistic. The world is too connected now. Globilisation has countries economicaly connected more so now that at any other time in history. If anything, I think, that will ensure, at least an attempt at cooperation first. If it gets to the point that China and the US has to go to War to ensure Oil supplies, then is it really going to be worth "winning the remaining Oil? I just can't see it happening........Now, if were discussing an attempt by the US to dominate the WORLD, then yeah, that scenario sounds great to me. And if you think about it, the US is so close. Maybe closer than any other entity in the history of the World in becoming the only government that matters. Total domination. Ofcourse, the elite from friendly countries or even people with a great deal of assets will be well taken care of.

Last time i checked, everything sold in Wal-Mart (ok, most everything) was made in China. I suppose we will just bring all the manafacturing back here? Not.

What about option 3 where the rich all fly off to Dubai and have personal armies protect them and their oil? I believe the rich will say fuck it and let the poor fend for themselves. Why should they care?

"The entire movement of these supplies will be carried out slowly enough that suspicions will not be aroused. The plan will be kept with utmost secrecy."

How terribly funny and naive you are Isochroma.

Everyone knows where all the nukes are, there are no secrets. In a couple of days of pretty straightforward internet searching you can find the location of pretty much every nuclear missile in the world. Given a week of steady investigation you could identify the location of pretty much all the fissile material every manufactured. The vast majority of it is not secret.

Sneaking a pile of nuclear missle systems to the Chinese border? Why? The US can strike from the comfort of their own homes, with a larger element of surprise.

In your owe so rational outline you of course blithely ignore the billions of people you are willing to murder.

China's industrial base is America's industrial base. That consumption that's going on, is American consumption. That part just happens to be located elsewhere.

Americans can't even clothe themselves.

Well, if we take out China's government/Military - a good portion of their upper class, then the masses could be re-schooled and employed at the same manufacturing plant. With reduced wages, this may offset the high price of petrol.... The Coal Industry did this for many years in WV, Kentucky, Ohio, PA.

This is just the sort of insane delusional fantasy about 'domination' sponsored by the neo-cons, and seen expounded by too many Americans that makes me want to weep. American military power is only good for smashing things up and killing people. It cant even 'dominate' a clapped out little country of 7 million people in the Middle East, and you're fantasising about invading China? This is just insane thinking.

The American Army marches on Chinese boots. Literally. Most of the US shoe and boot industry has shut up shop and moved to Guandong province. Think about it.

If any stupid military adventurism ended up disrupting the supply lines of the global economy, Id be surprised if the US Republic lasted more than a couple of weeks. Your shops and gas stations (and mine) would EMPTY, and Dubya would unleash his coup-in-a-box, grabbing all that remains for his COG in a hole and the US military.