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Here’s why oil’s future is grim

Alternative Energy

What do auto manufacturers, utilities and oil companies have in common with Kodak, Blockbuster and Macy’s? Their business models are rapidly vanishing under the pressure of technology innovation and societal norms.

Five countries have already announced an end date for the sale of gasoline and diesel cars: Norway (2025), Germany and India (2030), and France and the U.K. (2040). Many others are preparing to follow, proving that electric vehicles are about to go global and follow mass market adoption curves.

While these government bans are welcome, they may not even be necessary. In Europe, total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle (EV) is already similar to most internal combustion engine cars. With rapid improvements in battery technologies, cost of ownership of an EV will soon be significantly lower everywhere.

In fact, traditional cars will not disappear solely due to environmental concerns, but also because electric cars are both cheaper to operate and safer because the position of the motor and battery reduce injury risks from frontal collisions and the probability of the car rolling over.

A cheaper, cleaner and safer car will inevitably win over the market. The only question is how long this will take.

“A cheaper, cleaner and safer car will inevitably win over the market. The only question is how long this will take.”

Incumbent car manufacturers are waking up to the urgency of the transition to electric vehicles. After its near-death experience in the diesel emissions scandal, Volkswagen is now leading this transition, with a battery factory planned and 30 electric models to be released by 2025, representing 2 to 3 million cars per year (20 to 30 percent of its annual unit sales).

Volvo (a Chinese-owned company) recently announced that all its models would have an electric motor by 2019, further signaling the EV shift in China – already the largest electric vehicle market in the world.

Automakers are just one example of an industry that will be forced to reinvent itself as technologies and policies shift the world economy towards a low carbon model. Electric utilities are another. There is practically no industry that has as much to benefit from, and conversely so much to lose from this transition.

Only a few years ago, many experts were predicting the demise of the big utility and centralized grid, with distributed solar mounted on rooftops taking over the world. In fact, solar has grown exponentially in recent years, jumping 50 percent from 2015 to 2016 alone. But this has happened largely through utilities building large solar farms, not rooftop solar.

By 2030, renewables will account for half of the world’s energy mix, according to Goldman Sachs. Even now, the cost of wind energy, and in many places solar energy, is lower than gas, coal and nuclear. This is true without subsidies.

The auto industry’s transition to EVs and the utilities’ transition to renewable power are connected. Electric cars will increase the demand for electricity and for grid infrastructure to support charging stations and charging at home. With new approaches to batteries under development, such as solid state batteries, EVs and renewable energy supported by electricity storage are just entering the steep slope of the adoption curve.

These rapid changes will leave the oil and gas industry in crisis. Goldman Sachs recently said oil demand could peak by 2024 – a major departure from traditional analysis that shows oil demand rising to 2040 and beyond.

Some companies, such as Total and Norway’s Statoil, have seen the writing on the wall and are aiming to become “energy companies”, focused on all forms of energy, including solar and wind. Others will continue the failing business model of exploration, drilling and distribution, only to meet the same end as the coal industry.

Many of these changes are already well known, with most decision makers realizing the need to reinvent entire industries. The pace of this reinvention however is problematic. The climate change clock is ticking and the next few years are crucial to ensure earth’s temperature does not rise beyond 2 degrees, the goal set at the Paris climate conference.

All these technological changes are interconnected and mutually reinforced. These advances hold immense promise for our future, and will shift and create trillions of dollars in wealth. It’s time for business leaders, policymakers, consumers and citizens to embrace the promise of new technologies and shake the status quo.

CNBC



94 Comments on "Here’s why oil’s future is grim"

  1. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:42 pm 

    A revolution will not solve anything, until the masses understand what it is exactly that they should be revolting against. As long as they keep pointing figures at each other, nationalities, races, religious beliefs, etc., the real underlying problem will never be solved. These tactics are how they maintain control, and how the one world system will ultimately be achieved.

    Divide and conquer, and distraction, two of the oldest strategies in the book.

  2. MASTERMIND on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 2:10 pm 

    Here is a picture where mak1 the Asian carp lives? He left the US for this? wow he must have really lost his mind once his wife left him.

    https://i.imgur.com/foCVdCF.jpgines-budget-poverty.jpg

  3. onlooker on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 2:13 pm 

    Magnificently said Greg

  4. JuanP on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 2:52 pm 

    Good luck with Harvey, Boat. Stay safe!

  5. peakyeast on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 3:02 pm 

    I like the building code they use.. Seems much more down to earth than Denmark..

    Here you cannot even put up a 12m2 greenhouse out in the country without paying a small fortune (1000$) for permission and even then you are not sure you will be allowed…

  6. onlooker on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 3:04 pm 

    Yes Boat stay safe

  7. rockman on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 3:39 pm 

    Paul – “We should be killing extremist tard preachers now that they failed in charlotteville.” Just curious: do you appreciate the irony of your extreme position on the subject? Maybe you were going for humor. Maybe. LOL.

  8. Apneaman on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 3:58 pm 

    Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain

    “Media, Texas, and Gulf Coast residents take note: the thing to be most concerned about with regards to Harvey is not its admittedly life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, but what is shaping up to be a potentially historic rainfall event.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2017/08/25/harveys-mammoth-deluge-potential-some-models-are-showing-storm-could-produce-five-feet-of-rain/

  9. Sissyfuss on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 4:11 pm 

    Rock, Paultard is our resident idiot savant minus the savant.

  10. onlooker on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 4:54 pm 

    hearing that a nuclear power plant is in the current path of Harvey. Can anyone confirm?

  11. onlooker on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 5:12 pm 

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eU6R9gC_u_A&time_continue=239
    Not looking good

  12. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:05 pm 

    “A revolution will not solve anything, until the masses understand what it is exactly that they should be revolting against.”

    The German masses understood. The Russians and Americans not so much.

  13. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:34 pm 

    The myth that EVs, even if they existed in significant #’s, would do any lasting harm to the uS oil cartel, is a persistent one. But I can see pro-oil sycophants keep pushing it. The problem with his narrative is, its proponents dont talk about what they are really worried about, namely the (hypothetical) loss of the oil cartels effortless cash cow. That is, the single passenger oil-powered car. The cartel has invested a lot into conditioning people to drive literally everywhere using oil cars, naturally, they dont want anything to upend that in any real way. The good news (for big oil), is EVs could never do any real, or lasting harm to ‘big’ oil. No, big oil has far more to worry about for its future prospects than the Leaf or Tesla, such as the ongoing depletion of cheap, easy-to-steal, high quality crude.

    If the future(tm) that EVs proponents promate were ever to materialize, at worst, it would mean a reduction in the level of profits the oil cartel currently realizes(maybe). Neither oil corporations, oil corp profits or oil utilization would cease even if EVs started to magically proliferate.

  14. Apneaman on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:44 pm 

    Clog, so you’re saying the Germans knew they would have their country and dreams and hopes turned to rubble and have to unconditionally surrender and be occupied by the empires military to this very day, yet they still went ahead anyway? Sounds like masochists to me. Then again, I’m not all that surprised after having watched a fair bit of German porn – they like rough and degrading.

  15. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:25 pm 

    Ptard, want a look at reality? Here are a few pics of it. The FSA at its best!

    https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=A0SO8wdev6BZVRwA.hdXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEyaGlhdWtwBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjQ1MTZfMQRzZWMDc2M-?p=homeless+america+today&fr=mcafee

    Finger pointing when 45 million Americans are in soup lines and millions are living on the street.

  16. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:33 pm 

    Makat, can you see these slums from your high rise?
    http://tinyurl.com/yboqw9lk

  17. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:33 pm 

    Sorry Davy, that may not even be in Manila. No refs or dates. Try again.

    The slums here are being cleaned up and the people relocated to government owned housing outside of the city. I have seen the new homes. Not bad and certainly better than the slums or the street. The poor are not persecuted here by the police or government like in the FSA. It is a part of life.

    BTW: Manila is at least 12 miles wide and 24 miles long burb to burb. How far can you see from your farm? LOL

  18. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:36 pm 

    Not just in the U.S. Makati, the same thing has been happening in the cities across Canada as well. The homeless populations continue to rise exponentially.

  19. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:43 pm 

    GregT, unfortunately that will be true for most countries as the world unwinds from excess energy. We will go back to the days when necessities were the most important things in our lives. That is IF we survive as a species. It is not looking good.

    15 years ago, in Philly, I often saw beggars and street people when I worked there. One old lady had a plastic tent and a shopping cart full of ‘necessities’ she had scavenged, set up on a sidewalk. She was sleeping when I went by. The grates above the steam lines became popular places for the homeless to sleep in the winter. Poverty is not limited to Asia. It is just becoming more obvious as the numbers increase.

  20. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:50 pm 

    “The German masses understood. The Russians and Americans not so much.”

    That didn’t work out so well for the Germans, now did it?

    Like I said above, divide, and conquer.

  21. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:10 pm 

    We’re seeing much the same today, with the right, and the left. Except that this time, nations will be taken down from within. In the meantime the underlying problem for all involved, is not being addressed.

  22. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:11 pm 

    Sorry, should have said; STILL not being addressed.

  23. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:54 pm 

    “That didn’t work out so well for the Germans, now did it?”

    Absolutely not, Anglos can be a little slow at times, too many boat types. Johnny Cash vs Mozart, Bach & Beethoven.

    But it looks like the Anglo problem is solving itself.

    https://youtu.be/8hFRLbFaJEw

    The Russians meanwhile have considerably matured. Suffering nobles where Anglos mostly consumed and grew fat. I was told that the more thoughtful ones have meanwhile fled to backwaters in the Canadian jungle, Missouri, Apalachians and Manila to escape the coming Kharma hit. I trust you have sufficient beer and popcorn in store, I have.

  24. GregT on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:58 pm 

    Sorry Cloggie,

    Not sure what you did there, but
    your comment is unreadable. It wraps
    off my screen?

  25. dissident on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 10:13 pm 

    Just gotta love these politician retards and their big pronouncements about the end of fossil fuel burning vehicles. Will these f*ckers also pass legislation to reduce the cost of cars based on battery life? If I pay $30,000 for a fossil fuel dinosaur car which I can drive for 20 years, then why is it now normal for me to have to shell out $5,000 every 7 years for a new battery and on top of the fact that I pay more for the plugin hybrid up front? Instead of $30,000 I am paying $40,000 + $5,000 x 3 = $55,000. (I am assuming that I can get battery replacements after 20 years).

    I have not seen any hint of government mandated discounts that will bring back the $30,000 price. So these f*ckers are promoting highway robbery by the auto industry under the fig leaf of saving the planet. Do a better job with public transit you do-gooder trash.

  26. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 10:15 pm 

    Makati f* up this thread at 7:25 with his long link.

    Try reading it on your 30 inch monitor, not on your ipad.
    Or perhaps not, it was a sneer.

  27. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 10:51 pm 

    Cloggie, what “long thread”? I had no problem seeing it and just now calling it up on my PC. I do use a 22″ monitor as that is what my business partner uses for his CAD work. I do not own a lap top, I-pad, or any other e gadget other than an 8+ year old cell phone. All of the PO posts and site comes up quickly on my Firefox.

  28. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 11:12 pm 

    Makati, go back to your own post from 7:25,
    the one with “Ptard, want a look at reality? Here are a few pics of it. The FSA at its best!”

    In that post, you posted a long link, the one with “images.search.yahoo”.
    That very long link does not contain hyphens, so this crappy stone age forum software cannot wrap the link.
    Consequence, your post makes this entire thread unreadable on smaller devices, like ipad.
    The remedy is to verify your links before submitting your post.
    If they do not contain hyphes, go to tinyurl.com and shorten your links first.
    It is in your interest, otherwise nobody can read your brainchild.

  29. Makati1 on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 1:12 am 

    Too bad you are such a techie nurd, Cloggie. I’m just making my life easy, not yours. If your browser can’t handle a long link, get a new one and get rid of that piece of tiny junk that is ruining your eyes.

  30. Cloggie on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 2:57 am 

    If your browser can’t handle a long link, get a new one and get rid of that piece of tiny junk that is ruining your eyes.

    Again it is not my iPad browser that can’t handle large hyphen-less links, but the server-side software of this forum.

    I’m just making my life easy, not yours.

    Hookay, so you spend considerable time writing posts, but you allegedly do not care if nobody reads it, because you yourself made your own posts unreadable. Not just for me, but for many here as well who do read from a tablet, or even an iPhone like Davy.

    Now I understand why this farm is not making progress… you dig a hole, fill it up again, dig a hole, fill it up again, repeat cycle.lol

  31. Cloggie on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 3:07 am 

    Clog, so you’re saying the Germans knew they would have their country and dreams and hopes turned to rubble and have to unconditionally surrender and be occupied by the empires military to this very day, yet they still went ahead anyway?

    What I am saying is that the Germans understood on a collective level who it was who tried to Bolshevize their country, just like they had done to Russia and kill the upper layers of society by the tens of millions.

    The Americans only now begin to understand in larger numbers who it was who destroyed their country through miss migration from the third world. A bit late.

    In Russia meanwhile everybody understands the truth behind “Jewish communism”.

    Wow, now finally since a month this book is now available on Amazon.com:

    https://www.amazon.com/Crucifixion-Russia-Russians-translation-Solzhenitsyns/dp/1548660272/ref=sr_1_1

    In Russia you can say it openly, because their leader does:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6p1zxKnDeM

  32. Davy on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 3:36 am 

    “Sorry Davy, that may not even be in Manila. No refs or dates.”
    Sorry, makat, got references, dates, and pics for the slum clean up?

    “BTW: Manila is at least 12 miles wide and 24 miles long burb to burb. How far can you see from your farm? LOL”
    LOL, BTW, this is greater Manila that in reality is greater really a greater southern Luzon. Makat, check out the population densities. The problem with references you won the good ones and disown the bad ones. That is not how reality works makat:
    http://tinyurl.com/yc8ehp9q

  33. Davy on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 3:45 am 

    “Hookay, so you spend considerable time writing posts, but you allegedly do not care if nobody reads it, because you yourself made your own posts unreadable. Not just for me, but for many here as well who do read from a tablet, or even an iPhone like Davy.”

    I make sure and reduce my links to keep the board clean. I care about others here. makat, cares about nobody but himself. He is the primary reason this board is so polarized. Our extremes can live together if we show just a little respect. Makat shows zero respect. He is a friggen extremist loon. The dumbass will never admit he is wrong. Links that make him look bad he never owns. He has disowned his responsibility for his American sins even though his generation is primarily responsible for the death of the planet. He thinks he can just walk away from existential crimes and point fingers in blame and complain. Makat, thinks he is going to live to 100 and the rest of us die in a variety of ways and soon. IMA, our deaths will be horrible as he watches passing his popcorn. He does not respect others spirituality. He is an extremist anti-American Asiaphile. He is a dreg and the bottom of the sludge in a barrel of despicable. His type are the reason the world is dying from within and outwardly.

  34. Makati1 on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 5:41 am 

    Cloggie, idiots who want to ruin their eyes with those little screens deserve to miss interesting comments. I bet most here could access and read it easily. I will be glad when those toys are history and people go back to living in the real world. EMP anyone?

  35. Makati1 on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 5:45 am 

    DAvy, you care about shit. You only care about Davy as is typical of a 1%er. Your sermons fall on deaf ears.

    “He is the primary reason this board is so polarized” Look in the mirror Davy. YOU are the bully and name caller or is your memory so short that you do not remember the hundreds of name calling and putdowns you have posted against many here? Arrogant American. It is why the FSA is falling apart and is “polarized”. You are a hypocrite of the highest order.

  36. Cloggie on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 5:54 am 

    idiots who want to ruin their eyes with those little screens deserve to miss interesting comments.

    Dr makati coming to the rescue of the eyes of the forum participants. Touching.

    Seriously, there is no excuse for cluttering the forum. Just copy the link with your mouse, goto tinyurl.com, paste the link into the entry field and click the “make tinyurl!” button. Next copy and paste the new tinyurl link into your post and leave the decision of which client to use (monitor or gadget) to the reader and not boorishly make the decision for them.

    Not everybody wants to sit behind a computer monitor like in the office, but prefers to sit in a comfortable chair with the tablet on his lap.

  37. Cloggie on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 6:01 am 

    I will be glad when those toys are history and people go back to living in the real world. EMP anyone?

    These gadgets have long replaced the noisy, electricity wasting desktop pc + monitor.

    That is:

    5 Watt gadgets replaced 130 Watt desktop + 80 Watt 30 inch monitor = 210 Watt.

    That’s a good thing, reducing electricity consumption with a factor of 42.

    And an iPad you can switch off in a fraction of a second, where a desktop needs to be “shut down”, like a nuclear power station near meltdown.lol

  38. Davy on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 6:18 am 

    “DAvy, you care about shit. You only care about Davy as is typical of a 1%er. Your sermons fall on deaf ears.”
    Makat, if you didn’t care why did you read it? Why not get manners like clog is recommending instead of being the old asshole with an attitude? Show people respect at least how you present your fantasies and embellished facts. What a dumbass.

    “Look in the mirror Davy. YOU are the bully and name caller or is your memory so short that you do not remember the hundreds of name calling and putdowns you have posted against many here?”
    Look in the mirror makat and listen to me. I do name call and put downs. I do this to people like you that attack me daily. I do it to the other anti-Americans here who hate me and where I live. I am going to be here as long as I can and be after you like a dog, makat. You will get no peace you lying sack of shit. That is what an old man like you is in his last days of life as a liar to himself and others.

  39. Makati1 on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 6:31 am 

    Cloggie, yep, those little screens are killing the user’s eyes. Convenience comes with a heavy price sometimes. I will continue to do as I want as it does not seem to affect the site in any way. It is a free world. At least here in the Ps.

    Since when is ‘progress’ always a good thing? Are nuke plants a positive? Nuclear weapons? Chemical weapons? Biological weapons?

    How much energy goes into making a new pad or phone, which will be junked in a year when the new one comes out? More than a small Apple PC and screen will use in its lifetime. My A/C, or refrigerator uses more electric by far than the PC. Your argument is weak. Old tower PCs with tube screens might be energy intensive, but not the new PCs and flat screens.

  40. Makati1 on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 6:39 am 

    Davy, an intelligent person with facts to counter the claims I make, does not need putdowns or name calling. You have none so you revert to childish replies for the most part. Or long sermons that few, if any, read.

    As I said before, names do not hurt me or even bother me. Better than you tried in OCS and failed. I laugh at you. You cannot help yourself or you would just ignore me. You have to feel superior. It must be that 1%er upbringing.

    I will outlive you by many years, Davy. You will kill yourself with a heart attack from the stress if you stay on this forum. But, it is your life to waste. At your age I was enjoying my family, not on the internet.

  41. Davy on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 7:07 am 

    good makat, I am glad you approve in your cocky old man way. I like challenges. I will enjoy messing with you in any and every way. I will use any and every tool in the dumbass tool box to fight you and that is my promise. I have come to terms with death more or less so no big deal if your lying sack of shit out lives me. I doubt it though. This is especially true if you move to the fantasy farm. You will likely not make it a month. I imagine malaria will get you and you will wither away rather quick. I wonder how you are going to get out of a mega urban area of Manila when SHTF? That should be hilarious. Maybe it will be one of your sci-fi thrillers. Please write us some sci-fi makat and while you are at it go blow the boyfriend.

  42. Cloggie on Sat, 26th Aug 2017 7:09 am 

    I will continue to do as I want as it does not seem to affect the site in any way. It is a free world. At least here in the Ps.

    There is no freedom without responsibility.

    Knowingly destroying the readability of a thread for many others as well as nixing the work of even more others is greedy, egoistic “i-don’t-give-a-f*” behavior.

    Freedom my foot.

  43. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 3:54 am 

    The situation in the Netherlands regarding a petrol & diesel ban:

    Political The Hague is busy forming a new government on the basis of a new parliament. A petrol & diesel ban for 2025 is high on the agenda. Nobody wants to stay behind f* Norway. I wouldn’t be surprised if they would choose 2024 for prestige reasons.lol

    https://www.tankpro.nl/brandstof/2017/04/26/mogelijk-toch-steun-voor-verkoopverbod-benzine-en-dieselauto/

    The majority of the Dutch (53%) supports a ban for 2025:

    https://www.tankpro.nl/brandstof/2017/02/27/meerderheid-nederlanders-wil-verbod-op-benzine-en-dieselauto-in-2025/

    CEO van Beurden of Royal Dutch Shell supports the French-UK 2040 ban (!). He doesn’t rule out a peak oil date in 10 years time. Shell is moving towards lighter fossil like natural gas and has sold its tar sand operation in Canada.

    https://www.trouw.nl/home/shell-verbod-op-diesel-en-benzine-is-welkom-~a77a277d/

    Last year in Europe the e-vehicle was most popular in tiny Holland:

    http://tinyurl.com/yauaxow5

    NL: 45k
    UK: 40k
    FR: 35k
    DE: 25k

  44. Cloggie on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:43 pm 

    Again Fort McPherson in tonights 20.00 news in Holland:

    https://nos.nl/uitzending/27087-nos-journaal.html
    [from 15:22] some English

    https://nos.nl/artikel/2190259-klimaatakkoord-parijs-houdt-nog-geen-rekening-met-dooiende-permafrost.html

    Very alarming new perspective on climate change, not included in “Paris”. With “Paris” there could be a chance to reduce global warming caused by burning fossil fuel to 2 degrees Celsius. Moving away completely from fossil fuel by 2050 could achieve that.

    The fear however is that additional CO2 from burning fossil fuel is merely peanuts compared to the CO2 potential of permafrost regions like Canada and Siberia. The amount of CO2 that could be released from thawing permafrost could double the current CO2 levels.

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