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News from July 2016

The Energy Transition

The Energy Transition thumbnail

by Dennis Coyne I expect World Fossil fuel output to peak in 2025. If the World economy continues to grow in the future, a gap between Energy produced from all sources (including non-fossil fuels) and the demand for Energy will grow over time. If the gap between energy demand and energy supply is not filled […]


Africa awaits major crisis unless governments make interventions

Africa awaits major crisis unless governments make interventions thumbnail

ACCESS to safe and clean water is still a problem facing most African countries. Recent global statistics show that about 800 million people still lack access to safe and clean water, while about 2.5 billion do not have access to improved sanitation. This implies that Africa awaits major crisis unless governments become unified in giving […]


Iraqi Kurdish Forces Retake Oil Field

Iraqi Kurdish Forces Retake Oil Field thumbnail

Militants cause oil output of 175,000 barrels a day to halt Fires still burning at two tanks in Bai Hassan oil facility Kurdish Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq regained control of an oil field near Kirkuk, after Islamic State militants overran the facility, setting fire to two storage tanks and causing crude production of 175,000 barrels […]


Grimace to Loathe

Grimace to Loathe thumbnail

How many economic models are basically correct 45 years later? We are in summer re-runs now and have selected another vintage blast from the past. This was originally published to The Great Change on Friday, February 15, 2008. Charlie Hall sent us this lovely graph, which has his handwritten scrawl over the page torn from […]


Despite Global Glut, China Doubles Down on Natural Gas

Despite Global Glut, China Doubles Down on Natural Gas thumbnail

A global natural-gas glut has slowed the U.S. shale boom, but in this Yangtze River town, a Chinese one is just starting. China’s state-owned energy companies, their profits decimated by the commodities bust, are pushing ahead with billions of dollars in new investment to extract gas from shale. Leading the charge is China Petroleum & […]


Why are dystopic visions of the future so popular?

Why are dystopic visions of the future so popular? thumbnail

People have been attracted to apocalyptic scenarios throughout history during periods of unsettling change. Marshall McLuhan said that in the future, we will wear our nervous systems on the outside of our bodies. Drugs and overstimulated nervous systems are creating paranoia, but there is some greater and justified collective anxiety that is fueling this phenomenon. […]


The Importance Of Eco-Friendly Environment

The Importance Of Eco-Friendly Environment thumbnail

We are all aware of the literal meaning of the word eco-friendly. The world have evolved into a global village where pollution, disasters, diseases have spread to a maximum range. In this type of chaos, it is very necessary to preserve the earth and the living things that exist on it. As human beings and […]


Venezuela Implements ‘Forced Labor’

Venezuela Implements ‘Forced Labor’ thumbnail

A new decree by Venezuela’s government could make its citizens work on farms to tackle the country’s severe food shortages. That “effectively amounts to forced labor,” according to Amnesty International, which derided the decree as “unlawful.” In a vaguely-worded decree, Venezuelan officials indicated that public and private sector employees could be forced to work in […]


The Trans-Alaska Pipeline Will Dry Up Without New Oil

The Trans-Alaska Pipeline Will Dry Up Without New Oil thumbnail

Anchorage, Alaska For nearly four decades, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System has served as Alaska’s economic artery while providing the rest of the U.S. with a reliable supply of domestic oil from Alaska’s North Slope. Even with lower oil prices and the shale revolution increasing domestic production, TAPS, as we Alaskans call it, remains a key […]


Deal to open Libya’s Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil ports

Deal to open Libya’s Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil ports thumbnail

Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, shut since 2014, to resume exports after officials sign deal with armed group controlling them. Closure of oil fields resulted in sharp fall in state revenue [Darrin Zammit/Reuters] Libya’s UN-backed government has signed a deal with an armed brigade controlling the major oil ports to end a blockade and restart […]


US Admits It “Found A Problem” In Calculation Of GDP

US Admits It “Found A Problem” In Calculation Of GDP thumbnail

For years we have complained against both the BLS’ and the BEA’s comical seasonal adjustments, which “serve” just one purpose: to goalseek the data to a desired, politically-mandated outcome, and which culminated last May when the Department of Commerce announced it would seasonally adjust last year’s woeful Q1 GDP data not once but twice in […]


New study on Fukushima reactor shows most fuel was contained

New study on Fukushima reactor shows most fuel was contained thumbnail

The Asahi Shimbun Most of the nuclear fuel inside the No. 2 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant apparently did not melt through the pressure vessel as previously believed, research using muon tomography has revealed. The assessment was made based on a study that utilized muons, an elementary particle that travels from […]


The Best Reason to Ride a Bike

The Best Reason to Ride a Bike thumbnail

Cars have taken over our cities: More than half of downtown Los Angeles is devoted to roads and parking lots. Bikes are an afterthought at best, and those brave, or perhaps foolhardy, souls who bike risk life and limb. So says Bikes vs Cars, a 2015 film by Swedish director Fredrik Gertten. At first glance, […]


ISIS Wants a Global Civil War

ISIS Wants a Global Civil War thumbnail

From the murder of a French priest to the slaughter of 80 Shia Muslims in Kabul, ISIS has one goal: to get states and the far-right to single out Sunni Muslims and create a spate of religious civil wars across the world. LONDON — Did anyone at the Democratic National Convention notice the slaughter of […]


Statoil CEO ‘very confident’ oil will reach $50-60

Statoil CEO ‘very confident’ oil will reach $50-60 thumbnail

The CEO of Norway’s biggest oil company says he has few doubts that crude will again trade at around $50 to $60, marking a jump in prices that could be more than 30% compared with today’s level. “Eventually, I’m very confident that it will,” CEO Eldar Saetre said in a television interview with Bloomberg’s Manus […]


State Of The Oil Market

State Of The Oil Market thumbnail

Summary US production decline is accelerating and not as resilient as initially purported. The global oil market is now undersupplied. Based on current US rig count, the global oil market will be significantly more undersupplied by 3Q17 than it was oversupplied in 2Q15 (2.2 MMbopd) when OPEC flooded the market. Production from “tight” source rock […]


So Much For Peak Oil Demand

So Much For Peak Oil Demand thumbnail

No matter how often it happens, I never cease to be amazed when someone casually cites weak or falling demand for oil as a reason to avoid the oil and gas sector. Just last week I engaged with someone who wrote “the face of flat to lower demand…has a profound long term spoiler effect for fossil […]


Low Oil Prices Kill Off 7 Billion Barrels Of Oil Production

Low Oil Prices Kill Off 7 Billion Barrels Of Oil Production thumbnail

Capital expenditure cuts of $150 billion for 2016 and 2017 by U.S. exploration and production companies are expected to result in average production losses of 4.2 million barrels per day in the Lower 48 through 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie. This is not only a trend in the U.S., with upstream companies around the world […]


Drop in the ocean: India’s strategic oil reserves unlikely to stir market

Drop in the ocean: India’s strategic oil reserves unlikely to stir market thumbnail

India’s initial plan to build-up its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) is not shaping out to be the dramatic event that some in the market had hoped could help reignite global oil demand. While New Delhi has not shown its full hand in revealing its intentions, the first reports that SPRs might provide 90 days of […]


Abandoning a fossil fuel powered civilization means abandoning civilization?

Abandoning a fossil fuel powered civilization means abandoning civilization? thumbnail

  In the 1950s, the Italian anthropologist Fosco Maraini (1912-2004) had a chance to witness the tremendous cultural shock that the Japanese society experienced the defeat of the 2nd world war. He described his experience in the book “Meeting with Japan”, published in 1960. We may expect to go through something similar worldwide as we […]


Faulty Data? Why The Oil Glut Could Be Much Smaller Than Believed

Faulty Data? Why The Oil Glut Could Be Much Smaller Than Believed thumbnail

The oil price rally came to a quick end in June, topping $50 per barrel but quickly falling back again. Optimism stemming from the four-month rally has vanished, and since June prices have retreated back to $45 per barrel. The main reason for the renewed sense of pessimism comes down to the glut of oil […]


Oil Heads Back To $30, And Probably Lower

Oil Heads Back To $30, And Probably Lower thumbnail

Summary Financial players are now bailing out of their bullish positions in oil markets. The US dollar’s recovery means they have no need for a “store of value”. They are leaving behind mounting chaos. Prices will probably need to go well below $30/bbl to enable the market to rebalance. There was never any fundamental reason […]


India, U.S. Discover Major Natural Gas Reserve in Indian Ocean

India, U.S. Discover Major Natural Gas Reserve in Indian Ocean thumbnail

  Find may significantly expand regional energy production Gas locked in hydrate formations may exceed all known supplies A joint expedition by India and the U.S. discovered a major deposit of natural gas in the Indian Ocean, offering the potential to significantly expand energy production in a region that’s currently a big importer. India’s Ministry […]


Our Renewable Future book launch

Our Renewable Future book launch thumbnail

Several of the country’s leading energy analysts and environmental organizations have formulated plans for transitioning to 100% renewable energy. The fascinating new book, Our Renewable Future, gathers and assesses the viability of those plans. Join the book’s authors, leading scientists and thinkers in their own right, to explore the future of clean energy and how […]


Electric Cars: Massive Hype, Limited Value

Electric Cars: Massive Hype, Limited Value thumbnail

Highlights Electric cars are generating an enormous amount of hype which attracts a lot of direct and subsidized investment But an optimistic estimate of the potential value of broadly deployed electric cars is less than $400/car/year This is about one third of the cost disadvantage of a future electric car with an 80 kWh battery pack costing $100/kWh […]


“It’s Cyclical” and Other Worn Out Industry Phrases

“It’s Cyclical” and Other Worn Out Industry Phrases thumbnail

Nearly two years into one of the industry’s worse downturns, the good news is that many experts and analysts believe we’ve already reached the bottom and some are anticipating a ramp-up of production soon, and subsequently, more hiring. As a journalist, I’ve been privy to numerous conversations about the downturn and have addressed it from […]


Gail Tverberg: Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers

Gail Tverberg: Overly Simple Energy-Economy Models Give Misleading Answers thumbnail

Does it make a difference if our models of energy and the economy are overly simple? I would argue that it depends on what we plan to use the models for. If all we want to do is determine approximately how many years in the future energy supplies will turn down, then a simple model […]


Kunstler: The Odious Versus the Tedious

Kunstler: The Odious Versus the Tedious thumbnail

You thought the Republican convention was a ghastly spectacle of royal Trumpery (and Iago-style backstabbing featuring the arch-asshole Ted Cruz)? Now comes the Democratic Annunciation of I’m-With-Her-It’s-My-Turn, the incarnation of crony corruption in our late-state Republic of Racketeering. Remember that old movie, The Exorcist, with its demonic spewage of projectile vomit. Expect something like that […]


How Much Oil Is in Storage Globally?

How Much Oil Is in Storage Globally? thumbnail

SINGAPORE—The waterways surrounding this island nation have become home to one of the world’s biggest oil-storage sites. The problem: It is unclear how much oil is in the tankers anchored there. The historic fall in oil prices has created a pileup of inventories, much of it stashed in tanks in the U.S. and other industrialized […]


Some Of The World’s Biggest Problems

Some Of The World’s Biggest Problems thumbnail

What are the biggest social and economic problems the world faces today? And how close are we to ending them? Those are the questions that the U.N. Economic and Social Council aims to answer in its first report on the Sustainable Development Goals, released this past week. The SDGs, as they’re known, are 17 global […]


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