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News from January 2016

Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun

Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun thumbnail

This is a guest post by Steve St. Angelo of SRSroccoReport.Com. All opinions expressed in this post are his and do not necessarily reflect those of Ron Patterson. The U.S. Empire is in serious trouble as the collapse of its domestic shale gas production has begun.  This is just another nail in a series of […]


‘Occupied’ Norway a window into our fossil fuel addiction

‘Occupied’ Norway a window into our fossil fuel addiction thumbnail

Okay, I admit that the premise of Norwegian television’s new political thriller series “Occupied” is far-fetched. But that premise is a window on just how addicted to fossil fuels we are. In “Occupied” Norway’s Green Party wins parliamentary elections and makes good on its (not-altogether-fictional) promise to shut down oil and natural gas production in […]


Venezuela Tries to Convince Oil Nations to Cut Production

Venezuela Tries to Convince Oil Nations to Cut Production thumbnail

Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino meets Russia’s Novak Monday OPEC’s oil production hits record high after Indonesia joins Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino faces an uphill battle persuading Russia and Saudi Arabia to cooperate in cutting oil production amid a supply glut that has pushed prices down more than 30 percent in the past […]


The Seneca Effect: why decline is faster than growth

The Seneca Effect: why decline is faster than growth thumbnail

      The Seneca Trap is a repository of the posts dedicated to the “Seneca Effect” that appeared, and will appear, on “Cassandra’s Legacy The idea of collapse is bad enough for most people when it deals with the running out of mineral resources along the symmetrical “bell shaped” Hubbert curve. But there is […]


The Fed’s Oil Price

The Fed’s Oil Price thumbnail

In 1997, Ben Bernanke wrote a paper that argued the effect of an oil price shock can be compared to a change in monetary policy. If Bernanke’s 1997 model were applied today, a lower oil price could reduce GDP by 0.5% in the next three to four quarters as a result of tightening financial conditions. […]


Low oil prices produce calamity

Low oil prices produce calamity thumbnail

Economic calamity is what to expect from a prolonged period of low oil and gas prices. In fact, it’s already happening. Job losses, corporate loan defaults, reduced investments and an end to the recent reshoring trend are all propelling the U.S. toward recession. While conventional wisdom suggests we celebrate low oil prices as a consumer […]


Peak oil, population, climate change, pandemics, economic crises, cyberattack, failed states, nuclear war etc.

Peak oil, population, climate change, pandemics, economic crises, cyberattack, failed states, nuclear war etc. thumbnail

USJFC. 2010. The Joint Operating Environment. United States Joint Forces Command. United States Joint Forces Command. [Excerpts from this 76 page document follow] Every military force in history that has successfully adapted to the changing character of war and the evolving threats it faced did so by sharply defining the operational problems it had to […]


Venezuela is on the brink of a complete economic collapse

Venezuela is on the brink of a complete economic collapse thumbnail

The only question now is whether Venezuela’s government or economy will completely collapse first. The key word there is “completely.” Both are well into their death throes. Indeed, Venezuela’s ruling party just lost congressional elections that gave the opposition a veto-proof majority, and it’s hard to see that getting any better for them any time soon — […]


Finding hope even through all of the pessimism

Finding hope even through all of the pessimism thumbnail

In such an era of social media, widespread news and efficient technology, it’s easy to find the world to be a violent place. It’s easy to find evidence of bad things happening every day to good people. It’s easy to hear that cancer and other diseases are killing more and more each day, and that […]


Bringing the Wealth Home – intelligent Design at InishOge Farm

Bringing the Wealth Home – intelligent Design at InishOge Farm thumbnail

“We had a different notion of real wealth…we converted [our paper money] wealth into this land and home,” says Steve Unger. Mary Coll adds that they’re storing wealth in their knowledge, and by building a low-tech handmade house with no need for outside “experts” for maintenance. With their children Chloe and Finn, we tour the […]


A Look At Millions Of Barrels Of Unaccounted For Oil

A Look At Millions Of Barrels Of Unaccounted For Oil thumbnail

Summary Over the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to look at data that covers all of the U.S’ domestic oil production in an effort to plot out future output. Ultimately, I was able to conduct an analysis of most of the domestic oil picture but around 2.5 million barrels were left unaccounted for. In […]


Why Goldman Sachs Says $30 Oil Isn’t Proof of Weak Demand

Why Goldman Sachs Says $30 Oil Isn’t Proof of Weak Demand thumbnail

Oil’s collapse to $27 a barrel last week spurred concern that, on top of the existing oversupply, the market is facing a demand crisis. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. thinks that’s wrong. Over the past six weeks, long-term oil futures — for deliveries in five years’ time — have fallen even harder than prices for immediate […]


Don’t believe oil bump, $18 still coming

Don’t believe oil bump, $18 still coming thumbnail

With depressed oil prices poised for a second-straight weekly advance, closely followed analyst John Kilduff said Friday the bounce from 12-year lows won’t last. West Texas Intermediate crude was steady early Friday, after gaining nearly 3 percent Thursday on hopes of a deal among OPEC countries and Russia to cut production to tackle the growing […]


The Oil Crisis And How It Could Overshoot

The Oil Crisis And How It Could Overshoot thumbnail

The day we hit “peak oil” will be a definitive moment in the history of resources and energy consumption. Throughout our lifetime we have been warned of the implications of oil production hitting an absolute maximum; the consequence of which will be the terminal decline of global supply. M. King Hubbert, the author of the Peak Oil […]


Is Saudi Arabia finally winning the global oil war?

Is Saudi Arabia finally winning the global oil war? thumbnail

Sometimes in global financial markets, change can be brutal as the market adjusts to a completely new reality. The second half of 2014 was one of these periods and witnessed the beginning of what would become one of the largest declines in global oil prices on record. For many years, markets had focused on ‘peak […]


The Waning of the Modern Ages

The Waning of the Modern Ages thumbnail

La longue durée —the long run—was an expression made popular by the Annales School of French historians led by Fernand Braudel, who coined the phrase in 1958. The basic argument of this school is that the proper concern of historians should be the analysis of structures that lie at the base of contemporary events. Underneath short-term events […]


Economics Might Be Very Wrong About Growth

Economics Might Be Very Wrong About Growth thumbnail

Has the world entered a period in which economies simply won’t grow at the rate they once did? Radical as the thought may seem, it might not be radical enough. A few years ago, the economist Larry Summers stirred much debate when he suggested that the anemic growth of recent years might not be just […]


Nuclear fusion gets boost from private-sector startups

Nuclear fusion gets boost from private-sector startups thumbnail

The lab where a company called General Fusion is trying to spark an energy revolution looks like a cross between a hardware store and a mad scientist’s lair. Bins full of electrical gadgets are piled high against the walls. Capacitors recycled from a bygone experiment are stacked up like bottles in wine racks. Ten-foot-high contraptions […]


Why Oil Prices Won’t Recover Anytime Soon

Why Oil Prices Won’t Recover Anytime Soon thumbnail

Peter Esho, Invast Securities chief market analyst, discusses the Fed’s decision to leave its benchmark rate unchanged and the outlook for oil prices. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Rishaad Salamat on “Trending Business.”


Lines of Separation

Lines of Separation thumbnail

This is the fourteenth installment of an exploration of some of the possible futures discussed on this blog, using the toolkit of narrative fiction. Our narrator returns from his trip to a tier one county full of doubts about the Lakeland Republic’s prospects, and has those at once challenged and sharpened by a conversation at […]


Macro Outlook for 2016

Macro Outlook for 2016 thumbnail

A full-spectrum romp through the macroeconomic context: Stock markets; oil and gas prices; coal’s collapse; the difficult LNG export market; what commodities are telling us about the health of the global economy; trends in oil and electricity demand and electric vehicles; currency valuations and trends; the outlook for renewables; and much more! Geek rating: 6 […]


Is Non-OPEC Beginning Serious Decline?

Is Non-OPEC Beginning Serious Decline? thumbnail

The EIA’s Monthly Energy Review just came out. They have the U.S. production numbers through December along with World, OPEC C+C, Non-OPEC and selected Non-OPEC nations through October. Notice: When I use the term “peaked” below, I am referring to the most recent peak, not the all time peak and not necessarily the final peak. […]


Saudi Aramco – the $10 trillion mystery at the heart of the Gulf state

Saudi Aramco – the $10 trillion mystery at the heart of the Gulf state thumbnail

Along the King Fahd highway in downtown Riyadh, signs of the country’s wealth glitter and dazzle. Monuments include the massive Kingdom Centre – instantly recognisable by the giant bottle-opener feature formed by its two wings – and the beautiful and futuristic Faisaliyah building. New ones are still rising, like the King Abdullah financial district, still […]


Who’s afraid of cheap oil?

Who’s afraid of cheap oil? thumbnail

ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world […]


What Oil Can Tell Us About The Future?

What Oil Can Tell Us About The Future? thumbnail

Our civilization is growing and the pace of this growth is becoming faster every day. The population of Earth is over 7.3 bn and this enormous bunch of humans need a lot of power to drive the household appliances, cars and to light bigger and bigger cities. The 20th century has been ruled by one […]


Microbes Thrive In The Gulf of Mexico Due To Natural Oil Spill

Microbes Thrive In The Gulf of Mexico Due To Natural Oil Spill thumbnail

It seems that microbes thrive in the Gulf of Mexico due to natural oil spill that occurs in the waters and might actually encourage growth of the bacteria. There is a good side to oil where it concerns marine life. However, as it is in all things, moderation is key. Researchers from the University of […]


Oil Price Will Increase in Next ‘Few Months’

Oil Price Will Increase in Next ‘Few Months’ thumbnail

Oil prices will only stay at current levels for the next few months, according to Stuart Amor, the ex-head of oil and gas research at financial advisory firm RFC Ambrian. Amor, who made the statement in a presentation at the Finding African Oil event in London Monday, which was attended by Rigzone, said that around […]


The Myth of US Self-sufficiency in Crude Oil

The Myth of US Self-sufficiency in Crude Oil thumbnail

Google for “US energy independence” and you will get 134k results, “US self sufficiency” yields 10k results. Here are some examples of what the media reports: In Aljazeera’s Inside Story, 10/1/2016, titled “How much support will Saudi Arabia win against Iran?” the delicate relationship between the US, Saudi Arabia and Iran is discussed with 3 […]


OECD’s perspective on the global economy

OECD’s perspective on the global economy thumbnail

“The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up. Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief. It will become […]


Saudi Arabia presents plan to move beyond oil

Saudi Arabia presents plan to move beyond oil thumbnail

Saudi Arabia outlined ambitious plans on Monday to move into industries ranging from information technology to health care and tourism, as it sought to convince international investors it can cope with an era of cheap oil. A meeting and presentation at a luxury Riyadh hotel was held against a backdrop of low oil prices pressuring […]


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