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Running For The Exits: Peak Oil Demand

Summary A terminal price decline in oil is inevitable. Trends in EV cost, ICE efficiency, and driverless cars will cripple oil demand. The price decline we have seen with coal -- a commodity that continues to see minor demand growth -- will pale in comparison to the price drop coming for oil. Investors should liquidate their connection to oil producers before the end of the current decade. A little over a year ago, I put my thoughts together on why I think we will reach peak oil demand soon -- and the effects that will have on commodity prices. A Terminal Decline Peak oil supply or demand has long been a topic of discussion in commodities. In the past year, we have seen new information and a continuation of existing trends that have removed any doubts from my mind. Investing in oil companies today would only be ...


Could UK Oil Production Peak Again In 2019?

Production History And Reserves UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field. (Click to enlarge) Like all such all diagrams, this shows that the largest fields were developed first and declined the slowest. Most data here is taken from the new UK Oil and Gas Authority (which replaced ...


Oil is not going away for decades- if ever

An impending terminal crisis in net energy is looming over the global economy, according to Jonathan Rutherford of Insurgent Intelligence. The kind of growth that some multinational companies have been conducting is “green growth,” he notes with no signs of “degrowth.” “In my view, at best, they will vigorously pursue ‘green’ growth, i.e. via the rapid scaling up of renewable energy and promoting efficiency etc., but with no intention of actively reducing the overall level of energy consumption — indeed, most of the mainstream ‘green growth’ scenarios assume a doubling of global energy demand by 2050,” he writes. Stated simply, Rutherford does not believe that growth in green energy supplies will outpace or even keep up with global energy demand. With energy supply being critical to global economic prosperity, he argues that an energy crisis is looming and could stall economic growth. There is a ...


Climate Change Isn’t Our Biggest Environmental Problem, and Why Technology Won’t Save Us

Our core ecological problem is not climate change. It is overshoot, of which global warming is a symptom. Overshoot is a systemic issue. Over the past century-and-a-half, enormous amounts of cheap energy from fossil fuels enabled the rapid growth of resource extraction, manufacturing, and consumption; and these in turn led to population increase, pollution, and loss of natural habitat and hence biodiversity. The human system expanded dramatically, overshooting Earth’s long-term carrying capacity for humans while upsetting the ecological systems we depend on for our survival. Until we understand and address this systemic imbalance, symptomatic treatment (doing what we can to reverse pollution dilemmas like climate change, trying to save threatened species, and hoping to feed a burgeoning population with genetically modified crops) will constitute an endlessly frustrating round of stopgap measures that are ultimately destined to fail. The ecology movement in ...

Why Would Oil Demand Peak, Contrary to Peak Oil Supply? thumbnail

Why Would Oil Demand Peak, Contrary to Peak Oil Supply?

The oil industry is quite familiar with the concept of a “Peak Oil Supply” but people find it hard to believe that there is another side of the theory, which is “Peak Oil Demand”. This article will examine why the concept of peak oil supply failed to materialize and why one should believe the concept of peak oil demand will materialize. Peak Oil Supply Theory Going back in history, the term “peak oil” was originally coined in the 1950s by M. King Hubbert who predicted that the US oil production would peak in 1970, and decline at the same rate as it arose. But in the history of the petroleum era, Matt Simmons will be remembered for calling attention to peak oil. In reality, whenever oil prices abnormally elevate (1973, 1979, 2005, 2007, 2008, and then 2009-2014) due to a variety of reasons, ...


The Oil Glut Rewrites History

The good news for oil bulls is that U.S. stockpiles of the stuff, while still bloated, are now firmly back inside the historical range. The bad news is that all that bloating means the average isn't what it was. When the Energy Information Administration puts out its weekly summary of oil inventories, the one-pager usually has some form of wording about how the current level compares with what's typical for the particular time of year. Here's an example from this week's report, released Wednesday: At 466.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. U.S. inventories being in the upper half of the range means OPEC's efforts to clear the glut still have a ways to go. On the bright side, stockpiles have now dropped for seven weeks in a row, ...


Electric cars may take over Indian roads by 2020

Even as Indians take to the road like never before, consumers could well be buying their last petrol or diesel car, according to a US-based expert. Using the country's quick adaptation of smartphones as a model, Tony Seba, lecturer of Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University, says electric vehicles could bring about a similar massive transportation disruption in India as early as 2020. What's more, he predicts that internal combustion vehicles which run on petrol and diesel could be wiped out globally in as little as 8-10 years. Seba's warning comes as passenger vehicles in India in financial year 2016-17 grew at 9.24 per cent, the fastest rate of growth in six years, largely on the backs of utility vehicles, most of which run on diesel, which is much cheaper than petrol. "Remember at the time of Smartphones India was ...

Three Saudi Princes Living in Europe Have Disappeared thumbnail

Three Saudi Princes Living in Europe Have Disappeared

In the last two years, three Saudi princes living in Europe have disappeared. All were critical of the Saudi government - and there is evidence that all were abducted and flown back to Saudi Arabia… where nothing further has been heard from them. Early in the morning on 12 June 2003, a Saudi prince is being driven to a palace on the outskirts of Geneva. His name is Sultan bin Turki bin Abdulaziz, and the palace belongs to his uncle, the late King Fahd. It's the king's favourite son, Prince Abdulaziz bin Fahd, who has invited him to breakfast. Abdulaziz asks Sultan to return to Saudi Arabia - where he says a conflict over Sultan's criticisms of the Saudi leadership will be resolved. Sultan refuses, at which point Abdulaziz excuses himself to make a phone call. The other man in the room, the Saudi ...


China Won’t Reach Peak Energy Demand Till 2040

China will not reach peak energy demand until the year 2040, according to a new report from the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) on Wednesday. Previous estimates said the peak would be reached in 2035, but new figures suggest that five years later, demand would be its highest at 4.06 billion tons of oil equivalent. Rising fuel needs stem from an increasing number of cars on Chinese roads, as a growing middle class adopts new luxuries in their daily lives. The report added that China’s old demand will grow at a rate of 2.7 percent annually until 2020, after which it will slow to 1.2 percent until the end of the next decade. Currently, China is second only to the United States in its overall energy consumption, but the nation’s high coal use causes it to emit almost twice as much carbon dioxide ...

Heinberg: A New Covenant with Nature thumbnail

Heinberg: A New Covenant with Nature

  All human societies exhibit beliefs and practices that could be called spiritual. However, these beliefs and practices vary widely. There are strong patterns in this variability that seem tied to society’s basic economic underpinnings—whether people derive their sustenance from hunting and gathering, horticulture, or agriculture. Among agricultural societies variability seems tied to phases of urban development (“civilization.)” Today, have we reached a new and stable stage in societal evolution, or are we on the cusp of a shift as profound as any in human history? In this presentation of the 131st Summer National Convention of the Theosophical Society in America, Richard Heinberg explores the role of spirituality in that shift, and what changes in spirituality are likely to accompany the transition? Heinberg

Feds to sell 14 million barrels from oil reserve thumbnail Feds to sell 14 million barrels from oil reserve
The Department of Energy is preparing to sell 14 million barrels of crude oil ...
Consumption Oil To $100? Deja Vu A Decade Later
Summary We revisit 2007, the year before oil prices leaped above $100/barrel. Worldwide excess inventories today ...
Global Warming Will Sear Three of Four Major Grain Crops thumbnail Global Warming Will Sear Three of Four Major Grain Crops
Three of the four major grains on which the growing world population depends are ...
Peak Oil And Peak Demand Have Entirely Different Outcomes thumbnail Peak Oil And Peak Demand Have Entirely Different Outcomes
Following my previous article -- Peak Demand? No, A New Gasoline Demand Record -- ...

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