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Texas Update, May 2017 thumbnail

Texas Update, May 2017

The Chart above compares several different combinations of past (vintage) data to estimate output. The dotted line is based on the most recent 8 months (August 2016 to March 2017) of data saved from the RRC website, the blue solid line is based on the past 12 months of data, and the yellow line is based on the most recent 3 months of data. Each estimate uses the most recent 24 months of data from each month. A significant change in the size of the correction factors began in August 2016, which is the basis of the 8 month Corrected estimate. Dean Fantazzini prefers a 3 month estimate and an estimate using all vintage data (see chart below), I show the 3 month and 12 month estimates for comparison to the 8 month estimate, I expect the final data will ...

Consumption

Peak Oil? Meet Peak Oil Demand.

Nearly 12 years ago, I was writing on the blog to pooh-pooh the notion of peak oil (see below). Now it looks as if large numbers of forecasters are in fact not worried about peak oil (the notion that we will run out of oil) but instead are writing about peak oil demand. [via JR, my favourite drug dealer] The first two paragraphs: The world’s largest oil companies are girding for the biggest shift in energy consumption since the Industrial Revolution: After decades of growth, global demand for oil is poised to peak and fall in the coming years. New technologies that improve fuel efficiency are starting to push down the amount of gasoline and diesel that’s needed for transportation, and a consensus is growing that fuel demand for passenger cars could fall as carbon rules go into effect, electric vehicles gain ...

China may have 90 million fewer people than claimed thumbnail

China may have 90 million fewer people than claimed

China’s population may be much smaller than official data suggests, according to a group of researchers, meaning the nation will be replaced by India as the world’s most populous country sooner than expected. It may also mean the problems created by China’s rapidly ageing population and shrinking workforce are more serious than feared, according to the experts. China’s real population may have been about 1.29 billion last year, 90 million fewer people than the official figure released by the National Bureau of Statistics, Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said at a symposium at Peking University on Monday. That’s about twice the size of Spain’s population, which is slightly over 46 million. Yi, the author of Big Country with an Empty Nest, an influential book arguing that China is in need of more rather than fewer births, said China’s official population ...

Business

The Rise of the Amateur Oil Sleuths

On a recent Sunday evening, Samir Madani had dinner with his family in suburban Stockholm, did the dishes and put his two children to bed. Then he opened his laptop and started crunching U.S. oil import data late into the night. Mr. Madani, a technology executive who trades and researches crude as a hobby, is part of a growing group of oil sleuths who have sprung up to sate the market’s voracious appetite for data and intelligence. “So much of oil data is hidden and we’re trying to make it accessible,” said Mr. Madani, who runs a free oil data website from his house. “Besides, there’s so much drama in oil.” Dramatic gyrations in the price of oil in the past three years have boosted demand for such services, intensifying competition in a market that for years had been dominated by governments, oil companies and a handful of big data providers. Oil Sleuths Oil data gatherers use a variety ...

Public Policy

Trump budget wants to halve oil stockpile, open Arctic refuge to drilling

U.S. President Donald Trump's White House wants to sell half of the nation's emergency oil stockpile and open the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to drilling as part of plans to balance the budget over the next 10 years, documents by the administration showed. The White House budget, which will be delivered to Congress on Tuesday, is meant as a proposal and may not take effect in its current form. But it reveals the administration's policy hopes, which include ramping up American energy output. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world's largest, holds about 688 million barrels of crude oil in heavily guarded underground caverns in Louisiana and Texas. Congress created it in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo caused fears of long-term motor fuel price spikes that would harm the U.S. economy. The Trump budget proposes to start selling SPR oil in fiscal ...

Enviroment

High Levels of Cesium Radioactive Material Migrating Down into Soil Around Fukushima

High levels of radioactive cesium remain in the soil near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and these radionuclides have migrated at least 5 centimeters down into the ground at several areas since the nuclear accident five years ago, according to preliminary results of a massive sampling project being presented at the JpGU-AGU joint meeting in Chiba, Japan. In 2016, a team of more than 170 researchers from the Japanese Geoscience Union and the Japan Society of Nuclear and Radiochemical Sciences conducted a large-scale soil sampling project to determine the contamination status and transition process of radioactive cesium five years after a major earthquake and tsunami caused a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Source: Kazuyuki Kita The team collected soil samples at 105 locations up to 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in the “difficult-to-return” ...

Consumption

China Love for US Gas Begins as Trump Rolls Out Red Carpet

Let the gushing begin. After an executive from U.S. liquefied natural gas exporter Cheniere Energy Inc. spoke to a few hundred people at a conference in Beijing last week, the first question from the audience turned out to be an invitation to visit one of China’s biggest energy firms and a main LNG buyer, the state-owned giant known as Sinopec. “We are very happy to always come to your office, Mr. Chen Bo, and discuss the supply of U.S. LNG to China,” Andrew Walker said in front of an amused audience, responding to the chief of Sinopec’s trading arm. The exchange highlighted a budding relationship between U.S. gas sellers and Chinese buyers after an agreement struck this month by the Trump administration and President Xi Jinping’s government welcomed the Asian country’s investments and purchases of American gas. “The trade deal paves the way for ...

Venezuela: The Brutal Consequences Of Oil Addiction thumbnail

Venezuela: The Brutal Consequences Of Oil Addiction

Oil prices continue to waver after an 18-month slump, and the world’s most oil-dependent nations are feeling the effects. Saudi Arabia, home of the world’s biggest oil company Saudi Aramco, has announced that they intend to become completely independent of oil by 2030. While this news looms large for the industry and stands starkly as symbol of oil’s uncertain future, Saudi Arabia, who depend on oil for nearly 90 percent of their GDP, is not even in the Top 10 most oil-dependent nations in the world. Ranked by dependence on exports of fuel commodities (including natural gas and coal as well as oil and oil products) Saudi Arabia is number 11, falling behind Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Algeria, Brunei, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Qatar, and Nigeria. In the past, resource-rich countries built their entire economies and government systems around oil production, as it seemed ...

Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand thumbnail

Get Ready for Peak Oil Demand

The world’s largest oil companies are girding for the biggest shift in energy consumption since the Industrial Revolution: After decades of growth, global demand for oil is poised to peak and fall in the coming years. New technologies that improve fuel efficiency are starting to push down the amount of gasoline and diesel that’s needed for transportation, and a consensus is growing that fuel demand for passenger cars could fall as carbon rules go into effect, electric vehicles gain traction and the internal combustion engine gets re-engineered to be dramatically more efficient. Western countries’ growth used to move in lockstep with their energy consumption, but that phenomenon is starting to decouple in advanced economies. While most big oil companies foresee a day when the world will need less crude, timing when that peak in oil demand will materialize is one of the ...

Air Pollution is a serious problem for children thumbnail

Air Pollution is a serious problem for children

The Problem Unhealthy levels of air pollution in many American cities are harming the health of residents, especially those who have asthma. Although clear air laws that regulate industrial smokestacks, car engines and other sources of pollution have resulted in cleaner air, primary sources of air pollution remain. Among the largest remaining sources of harmful pollutants are coal-fired electric power plants that were built before clean air laws were written in the early 1970s. These power plants are permitted to release thousands of tons of sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide and mercury into the air each year, putting the health of millions of Americans at risk, particularly those who live in urban areas and particularly those who have asthma. Who Is Affected? According to the American Lung Association, by 2020 asthma will affect 1 in 14 Americans and 1 in 5 families. Asthma is ...

Public Policy Kunstler: Do You, Mr. Jones…?
In case you wonder how our politics fell into such a slough of despond, ...
Consumption Oil outlook – crunch time or gloom mongering?
That the global oil market is set to tighten over the coming years is ...
Saudi Arabia and Russia Are at Odds on Almost Everything, Except Oil thumbnail Saudi Arabia and Russia Are at Odds on Almost Everything, Except Oil
Two producers find common ground in seeking oil-price revival Union could unravel if ...
Venezuela To Import Gasoline As Crisis Escalates thumbnail Venezuela To Import Gasoline As Crisis Escalates
For over forty days, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have taken over the main ...

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Resilient US Shale Has Flipped Oil Imports Upside Down #PeakOil dld.bz/fJCXF

21st century economics: "Get Ready for #PeakOil Demand" says the @WSJ. on.wsj.com/2rJoela by @LynnJCook

test Twitter Media - 21st century economics: "Get Ready for #PeakOil Demand" says the @WSJ. https://t.co/W4x1yPZAOd by @LynnJCook https://t.co/QAzr2p14b0