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Iraq, Iran and Libya are wildcards for oil

<p>Energy&#039;s crude realities </p> <p>Carl Larry, Frost &amp; Sullivan, discusses the impact of supply and demand pressure on oil prices.</p> Despite the meltdown in the oil market, prices are more likely to rise than to fall further because of geopolitical instability, an industry consultant told CNBC on Thursday. "Iraq, Iran, [and] Libya, history tells us that those don't get solved very quickly or very easily. I don't see downward pressure from them coming back on online. I probably see more upward pressure from disruptions going on in that area," Carl Larry, director of oil and gas business development at Frost & Sullivan, said on "Squawk Box". Larry's comments were in contrast to what Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson told CNBC in a separate interview that aired Thursday. <p>Oil&#039;s supply and demand dilemma</p> <p>ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, discusses how the oil glut is impacting energy prices and ...

The Illusionary Recovery Is Now Giving Way To The Economic Collapse thumbnail

The Illusionary Recovery Is Now Giving Way To The Economic Collapse

ADP employment number miss expectations. RBS, Target laying off people. Deflation not showing up in food, alcohol or electricity. New type of loans, landlord loans, real estate market crashing and the bankers are getting desperate. FCC wants to be the referee of the internet. China tells Obama to mind his own business about fighting terrorism. Russia creating program to stop color revolutions which end up in regime change. US expands sanctions on Russia for another year. US troops heading to Ukraine. NATO ships in Black Sea. US making the case to invade Libya. Investment Watch

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China Has Announced Plans For A ‘World Currency’ thumbnail

China Has Announced Plans For A ‘World Currency’

The Chinese do not plan to live in a world dominated by the U.S. dollar for much longer.  Chinese leaders have been calling for the U.S. dollar to be replaced as the primary global reserve currency for a long time, but up until now they have never been very specific about what they would put in place of it.  Many have assumed that the Chinese simply wanted some new international currency to be created.  But what if that is not what the Chinese had in mind?  What if they have always wanted their own currency to become the single most dominant currency on the entire planet?  What you are about to see is rather startling, but it shouldn’t be a surprise.  When it comes to economics and finance, the Chinese have always been playing chess while the western world has been ...

Water Scarcity Risks Being a Source of Conflict thumbnail

Water Scarcity Risks Being a Source of Conflict

The depletion of freshwater resources will inevitably lead to tension, conflict and migration among large swathes of the world’s population.  Yemen, an impoverished desert country racked by years of conflict, instability and misgovernance, may soon add another dubious distinction to its unfortunate track record: At current rates, it may become the first country in the world to run out of water. With apocalyptic gloom, experts have put 2025 as the date when the country’s capital, Sana’a, home to nearly 2 million residents, runs dry. The majority of Yemen’s water resources are used for agricultural purposes – a staggering 40% being used to grow khat, a mild stimulant chewed by many Yemenis. Yemen is not alone. Many other countries through geographic ill-fate, climate change or water mismanagement are facing looming water shortages. It is estimated that 1.2 billion people, mostly in arid and ...

The Paradox of Oil: The Cheaper it is, the More it Costs thumbnail

The Paradox of Oil: The Cheaper it is, the More it Costs

There will be oil, but at what price? – Chris Nelder and Gregor Macdonald   1. Introduction   It would be fair to say that the timing of the sudden drop in the price of oil since June 2014 took energy and financial analysts by surprise. After averaging around US$110 per barrel since 2011 (IEA, 2013: 6), suggesting a ‘new normal’, the last six months have seen the price of oil fall to around US$50 per barrel (as of February 2015). But although the timing of this price drop was not forecast by analysts with any precision, there are economic, geological, and geopolitical dynamics at play in light of which the price volatility we are seeing is not actually that surprising. In my article ‘The New Economics of Oil’ (Alexander, 2014) – published a few months prior to the fall in price – I explained ...

Peak Meaninglessness thumbnail

Peak Meaninglessness

Last week’s discussion of externalities—costs of doing business that get dumped onto the economy, the community, or the environment, so that those doing the dumping can make a bigger profit—is, I’m glad to say, not the first time this issue has been raised recently.  The long silence that closed around such things three decades ago is finally cracking; they’re being mentioned again, and not just by archdruids.  One of my readers—tip of the archdruidical hat to Jay McInerney—noted an article in Grist a while back that pointed out the awkward fact that none of the twenty biggest industries in today’s world could break even, much less make a profit, if they had to pay for the damage they do to the environment. Now of course the conventional wisdom these days interprets that statement to mean that it’s unfair to make those ...

Who Controls Our Food? thumbnail

Who Controls Our Food?

Sympathy with organic food production is at an all-time high. Perhaps ‘It’s a nice idea, when you can afford it’ sums up the approach of many people. But extending these principles of production to the whole food system? It just doesn’t seem practical. There are an awful lot of people to feed in the world and, if you’re hungry, you don’t care much about the niceties of how the food was produced. A new report from Global Justice Now, From The Roots Up, shows that not only can small-scale organically produced food feed the world, but it can do so better than intensive, corporate-controlled agriculture. As a matter of fact, it already is feeding millions of people. In Tigray, Ethiopia, farmers have seen grain yields double, with increased biodiversity and fertility, not to mention less debt. In Senegal, agroecological pest management techniques ...

Iraq forces working to encircle ISIL in Tikrit thumbnail

Iraq forces working to encircle ISIL in Tikrit

The Iraqi army has said its strategy for retaking the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group's stronghold of Tikrit is to surround the city before launching an assault. A senior commander said on Wednesday that operations were currently focused on preventing ISIL from launching more attacks and cutting supply lines to stop reinforcements and weapons from reaching Tikrit. The next step will be to "surround the towns completely, suffocate them and then pounce on them," Lieutenant General Abdel Amir al-Zaidi told the AFP news agency. On Monday, the Iraqi security forces and a variety of allied fighting units launched the biggest ground operation yet against ISIL in Iraq. Backed by jets and helicopters, the 30,000-strong force is moving in from three main directions, their progress slowed by suicide bombers, sniper fire and booby traps. Iraqi forces have yet to retake Ad-Dawr and ...

Public Policy

Russia’s economy isn’t in tatters

Western politicians and pundits should be more careful with their predictions for the Russian economy: Reports of its demise may prove to be premature. Bashing the Russian economy has lately become a popular pastime. In his state of the nation address last month, U.S. President Barack Obama said it was “in tatters.” And last week, Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics published an article predicting a 10 percent drop in gross domestic product this year — more or less in line with the apocalyptic predictions that prevailed when the oil price reached its nadir late last year and the ruble was in free fall. Aslund’s forecast focuses on Russia’s shrinking currency reserves, some of which have been earmarked for supporting government spending in difficult times. At $364.6 billion, they are down 26 percent from a year ago and $21.6 ...

Exxon CEO: Get Used to Lower Oil Prices thumbnail

Exxon CEO: Get Used to Lower Oil Prices

Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson expects the price of oil to remain low over the next two years because of ample global supplies and relatively weak economic growth. "People need to kinda settle in for a while," Tillerson said at the company's annual investor conference in New York. In a presentation to investors outlining its business plans through 2017, Exxon assumes a price of $55 a barrel for global crude. That's $5 below where Brent crude, the most important global benchmark, traded on Wednesday. It's about half of what Brent averaged between 2011 and the middle of last year. The price of oil plunged in the second half of 2014 when it became apparent that production was outpacing global demand. The rise in U.S. production last year of 1.5 million barrels per day was the third largest in the history of the global ...

Saudi Oil Minister: OPEC Is Neither Dead Nor Waging War On Shale Oil thumbnail Saudi Oil Minister: OPEC Is Neither Dead Nor Waging War On Shale Oil
Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi gave a speech in Berlin today. Here’s the full ...
Weaving the Community Resilience and New Economy Movements in the US thumbnail Weaving the Community Resilience and New Economy Movements in the US
Transition US is delighted to be part of the second cohort of national Transition ...
Libya declares force majeure on oil fields in central region thumbnail Libya declares force majeure on oil fields in central region
 Libya on Wednesday declared a force majeure related to 11 oil fields in the ...
So Much for Hubbert’s Peak Oil Theory: $20 Per Barrel Oil Soon? thumbnail So Much for Hubbert’s Peak Oil Theory: $20 Per Barrel Oil Soon?
All right, the headline might be a tad hasty. Nevertheless, geologist M. King Hubbert famously ...

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